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December 2014 Warning Shot/Reload Prequel Cold Snap Forecast Contest


Deweydog

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PDX

 

42/33

35/27

34/24

36/23

 

Sea

 

40/31

36/28

35/24

36/27

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Decent turnout for this, but I think we can do better.

 

Let's extend the deadline to Noon tomorrow and see how many entries we can get.

 

The 12z runs tomorrow will be HUGE!!!!!

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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For comparison, here's the NWS point / click forecast:

 

SEA:

40/~28

35/25

37/24

39/27

 

PDX:

40/~26

29/23

34/22

37/25

 

Monday lows are hard so I just added a few degrees to their Monday night forecast assuming the lows would be at midnight.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Looks like 43/33 for PDX and 43/34 for SEA today but I will wait for the official numbers to calculate our scores so far.

 

Looks like everybody at least slightly overestimated the cold today. Tomorrow will be interesting.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Looks like 43/33 for PDX and 43/34 for SEA today but I will wait for the official numbers to calculate our scores so far.

 

Looks like everybody at least slightly overestimated the cold today. Tomorrow will be interesting.

 

I think the lows today will be at 11:59pm....

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The standings through yesterday's highs/lows and today's highs.

 

We are killing the GFS!

 

SilverFallsAndrew: 9

Bainbridgekid: 11

BLI Snowman: 11

FroYoBro: 15

Front Ranger: 17

NWS point and click: 28

Bedonbye: 31

GFS raw output: 43

 

I'll update again at midnight. Both PDX and SEA may set today's lows at 11:59

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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The standings through yesterday's highs/lows and today's highs.

 

We are killing the GFS!

 

SilverFallsAndrew: 9

Bainbridgekid: 11

BLI Snowman: 11

FroYoBro: 15

Front Ranger: 17

NWS point and click: 28

Bedonbye: 31

GFS raw output: 43

 

I'll update again at midnight. Both PDX and SEA may set today's lows at 11:59

Looks like 38/28 for SEA and 35/26 for PDX today.

 

Updated Standings:

 

Dewey: 6 (only forecast PDX)

SilverFallsAndrew: 10

Bainbridgekid: 13

BLI Snowman: 14

FroYoBro: 18

Front Ranger: 23

Bedonbye: 26

NWS point and click: 34

GFS raw output: 58

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Here are the standings after yesterday's 38/27 at SEA and PDX's 37/21.

 

Dewey: 9 (Only forecast PDX)

 

SilverFallsAndrew: 22

BLI Snowman: 24

FroYoBro: 25

Bainbridgekid: 26

Front Ranger: 34

Bedonbye: 40

NWS point and click: 42

GFS raw output: 66

 

So far that's 12 forecasts (highs and lows for 3 days at two stations) so even a score of 36 is only off by an average of 3 degrees.

 

I'm impressed we are all beating the NWS.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Looks like Thursday's lows will be 26 for SEA and 24 for PDX.

 

Updating for that gives us these standings:

 

Dewey: 15 (Only forecast PDX)

 

SilverFallsAndrew: 28

FroYoBro: 28

Bainbridgekid: 28

BLI Snowman: 29

Front Ranger: 39

NWS point and click: 46

Bedonbye: 47

GFS raw output: 70

 

4 of us within 1 point of the win with just today's highs to go!

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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And here were our predicted highs today for PDX/SEA.

 

SilverFallsAndrew:      36/36

FroYoBro:                   36/38

Bainbridgekid:             38/41

BLI Snowman:             37/39

Front Ranger:             37/38

Bedonbye:                  40/42

NWS:                          37/39

GFS:                           40/40

 

It all comes down to this!

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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The results are in.

 

With a strong last day, the winner is . . . . . Me!  :o  :wub:  :D  :P

 

I'm pretty impressed that every single one of us had an average error of 3 degrees or less. That's a pretty useful forecast at this range.

 

And we all beat the NWS!

 

December 2014 forecast contest - Sheet1.pdf

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Rigged!!

 

Nice job, bbkid. I think all of us ended up a little too cold, but like you said...at least we beat the NWS.

Especially Tuesday. Still not sure how PDX cracked freezing. Hopefully Richard or Kevin Martin chime in with an explanation.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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