New Year's Weekend Potential Major Winter Storm

[Scott26]

What is better than starting 2015 with a major winter storm? Models are in good agreement of a strong low pressure system during this time frame. There should be enough cold air in place for widespread snows north of the area of low pressure. The greatest uncertainty is whether high pressure will keep this system suppressed or this can take on more of a negative tilt and bring widespread snows to the sub-forum.

[Tom]

Thanks for starting this thread.  Even though we are about a week away from this potential storm system, there are several indicators this storm should materialize into a big winter storm.  The LRC has done quite well this season, and I'm not to surprised that this system looks to cycle back through next weekend.  Timing/phasing of the northern and southern stream will play a big role with this system.  Back in November, the system phased much later and rain was the main event except for Wisco.  I believe this system will mature earlier as teleconnections would support this.

[bud2380]

Gfs still showing a solid snow event next Friday into Saturday. Right around 6" for Iowa city, but p type could be an issue. Long ways off. Let's see if the euro caves and shifts north this run

[Geos]

PGFS was weaker than the GFS and a bit more southeast.

[Iowawx]

GGEM is also surpassed with the storm on the 3rd. 

[Tom]

00z Euro has SLP developing near Amarillo, TX @ 00z Jan 3rd...different look and ejecting out better.  Should be a good run if it phases with northern stream.

[Money]

990 north of Buffalo at hr 168

[Grizzcoat]

Euro sn totals through 168---

[Tom]

Looks like it then develops a secondary low near AR that cuts up through S IL/S IN to near Detroit, MI...baby steps towards a big time storm.  It races towards Detroit, MI as a 995mb SLP with a solid system.  This has major storm written all over it.

 

Although there wasn't that much snow fall in the defo band, this still looks good to me and I can see what the model is trying to say.  Over the last couple days, both the Euro Ensembles/Control have been showing some sort of lower lakes cutter.  

[Money]

-25 850 mb temps at 1-06-0z after the storm with a 1054 H

 

D**n.

[Money]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_0z/f156.gif

 

162

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_0z/f162.gif

[Yerf]

From LOT

THE CALI LOW WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT EAST
AND NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE CLASH OF THE WARMER GULF AIR AND
ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION LOOKS TO RESULT IN A DYNAMIC
WINTER STORM SYSTEM. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE SOMEWHERE IN THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND
EXPECTING TO SET UP BEHIND IT DUE TO A REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR AND
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE

[Snowshoe]

This was a nice surprise from NWS GRB this morning.

 

 

 

UPPER/SURFACE TROUGHS SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. ADDED
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS
FEATURE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO BIGGER STORM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
IF 00Z GFS IS CORRECT...WINTER STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. ECMWF HAS COME IN MORE BULLISH
WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...THUS EXPECT LATER SHIFTS TO INCREASE
CHANCES FOR SNOW. DID RAISE THEM SLIGHTLY PER COORDINATION
EFFORTS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS
STORM FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

[Niko]

It will be a fun storm to track all week. Finally!!!

[Scott26]

This definitely looks like a classic winter storm in the making. Check out the EPS control... You can see that trowal feature with a nice defo band NW of the low.

[james1976]

Let me get this straight....00z Euro came way north compared to yesterday's 12z run???  This is a great sign. If I'm correct, yesterday it was supressed and headed way south and east.

[Scott26]

Let me get this straight....00z Euro came way north compared to yesterday's 12z run???  This is a great sign. If I'm correct, yesterday it was supressed and headed way south and east.

Yup, the deterministic run went well north in line with the Control. Looking at the ensembles there still isn't much of an agreement. Some members are still well south while others are a good hit for this sub-forum. So who knows what the 12Z Euro is going to do today lol.

[Money]

12z gfs still takes a 1002 L or so to Chicago. 3-5 for the snow areas

[Scott26]

12z gfs still takes a 1002 L or so to Chicago. 3-5 for the snow areas

The GFS and PGFS are world's apart. With its better resolution I would think the PGFS would handle these synoptic scale set-ups better, but with the last storm it did not do well.

[bud2380]

GFS came in a bit warmer each of the last few runs and not as well defined deformation band in the cold sector. PGFS came in well south as did GGEM.  Let's see what the Euro has to say. 

[Scott26]

12Z GGEM...

[james1976]

I'll hang my head on the more consistent GFS OP. GGEM and PAR GFS have been all over the place.

[james1976]

This storm isnt THAT far out now.....5-6 days.

[Tom]

12z Euro looks like it may be a similar run to last nights 00z run...developing SLP near MS/AR area @ 144HR...

[The Snowman]

My latest write-up on the storm, for those interested: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/12/january-3-5-potential-major-winter-storm.html

[james1976]

Just read Andrew's write-up. Good analysis. Makes sense that the GFS would be considered an outlier. GFS has been pretty consistent with its track so I have been holding out hopes for that. But your write-up makes a lot of sense. 12z Euro is now back south as well.

[Maxim]

My latest write-up on the storm, for those interested: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/12/january-3-5-potential-major-winter-storm.html

May I ask why you are leaning towards a southern track? A negative PNA and a positive NAO would not support a southern track.

[Money]

Southern track is not the way to go. The snowman is going to be wrong on this one

[Iowawx]

18Z GFS is very weak with the storm on the 3rd. Very narrow band of 1-3 inches. Seems like yet another dud is coming in. 

[Yerf]

The models are all over the place with the speed of the low. I think the GEM is too quick

[james1976]

GFS just took a jump south. Totally misses me this run.

[Tom]

The reason why I see a big problem in today's 12z Euro run is how it handles the storm system in the NE Pacific.  It has that storm way to close to NW NAMER which then does not allow the polar jet to crash farther south.  This was a fluky run and doesn't fit the overall pattern and the blocking that will be developing near NW NAMER.  GFS is handling this blocking a lot better and has the right idea, along with the developing -PNA.

[The Snowman]

May I ask why you are leaning towards a southern track? A negative PNA and a positive NAO would not support a southern track.

I'm looking at a southern track based on the Typhoon Rule application, possibility of model guidance being too slow with pushing Arctic high pressure to the south from Canada, and NWS Chicago stating in last night's AFD how model guidance tends to be too fast with pushing cutoff lows to the east. 

 

18z GFS & GFS-Parallel coming south & quicker shouldn't be considered a surprise. On the other hand, one might expect this storm to be a bit juicier than currently projected, given the presence of substantial STJ branch interaction. 

 

Edit to correct myself, quicker GFS is a surprise.

[The Snowman]

LOT AFD

 

THE NEXT QUESTION FOR

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG

PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND CLOSING OFF OVER

THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE DIGGING

TROUGH OVER THE WEST SHOULD INITIATE SOME HEIGHT RISES OVER THE

MIDWEST...WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN SPITE

OF PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING

DEVELOPS OVER THE NCNTRL/NERN CONUS WHILE AN UPPER HIGH PARKS OVER

THE GREATER ANTILLES AND WRN CARIBBEAN.  THE FORECAST CONCERNS WILL

FOCUS ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE DESERT

SOUTHWEST WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS

AND...ULTIMATELY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES...AND HOW MUCH PHASING

WILL OCCUR WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY.  THE 12Z GFS IS STILL TRENDING

MUCH QUICKER THAN THE OTHER LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF

ADVERTISING THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AND THE GEM TAKING A MIDDLE OF THE

ROAD SOLUTION.  STILL FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION FOR A SRN STREAM

CUT-OFF AS THE MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR BEING TOO FAST IN LIFTING

THESE SYSTEM NEWD.  

 

 

[james1976]

0z GFS much slower this run.

[The Snowman]

0z GFS slows down, GFS-Parallel goes south & a day slower than the actual GFS, and GGEM brings the storm south.

[clintbeed1993]

Storm is non existent on GFS.  Snow keeps getting pushed back into fantasy land.

[james1976]

6z GFS has it way south and very weak.

[GDR]

I think we jinx ourselves whenever we start a thread using the word major in the title!

[Sleather]

Had to chuckle at LOT's Izzie. This mornings AFD:

 

"AT THIS POINT THE CHANCES OF THE LAS
VEGAS STRIP SEEING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS
CURRENTLY HIGHER THAN HERE IN OUR CWA..."