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New Year's Weekend Potential Major Winter Storm


Scott26

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The problem is that models have slowed this down so much when the low tries to eject it gets squashed by high pressure. The trends are not good, but some of the Euro ensembles are still on board with a stronger, northward storm so lets hope models change their tune.

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12z GGEM back with an organized cutter...the slower solution, the better result...more time to phase with the northern stream coming down from Canada.  Still way to early to throw in the towel with this storm.

People always seem to react too quickly when models lose a storm for a day or two. If I remember correctly the Euro and other models suppressed the Groundhog's Day Blizzard in 2011 for a couple of runs as well. In no way am I comparing this storm to that, but the point is it's way too early to give up.

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People always seem to react too quickly when models lose a storm for a day or two. If I remember correctly the Euro and other models suppressed the Groundhog's Day Blizzard in 2011 for a couple of runs as well. In no way am I comparing this storm to that, but the point is it's way too early to give up.

this event, by no means is close to GDB. So let's try not to use the two in the same sentence.
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this event, by no means is close to GDB. So let's try not to use the two in the same sentence.

I don't think you understood what I meant. I was just saying that even the biggest storms are sometimes lost in the medium-range just to come back. I specifically said this is nothing like GHD...

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GFS and GGEM back with the northern solution. Cant wait for Euro. Whats Parallel showing?

PGFS came farther north from previous runs...Euro is a no show, just rain down in the deep south...definitely ejects out the slowest and farthest south compared to the other models.

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NWS GRB

 

 

MODELS CONT TO STRUGGLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIG WX TO
AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEM
THAT CROSSED THE RGN ON XMAS EVE...THE EVENTUAL TRACK WL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON INTERACTIONS BTWN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS...SO DESPITE
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT ON A MORE NLY TRACK ON TDA/S
12Z RUNS...SUBSTANTIAL CHGS IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM ARE LIKELY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
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18z GFS still trying to close in a  bigger storm near the Lakes...it's all going to come down to when the northern piece of energy phases with the southern piece.  From past experience, I have seen the northern piece come down south out of Canada faster than what models are showing now.  I'm expecting a better phase in the central CONUS.  

 

I must say, the track of the southern piece going through KY/S IL is EXACTLY where I saw the rotation on radar during the Nov 24th storm.  You can go back in that storm thread and see that post because this is the track I am expecting to see in the coming days and have been over that last 35 days.

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As each new run comes in this is getting weaker. Unfortunately it does not look like this is going to amount to much, maybe a nuisance snow at best. It just doesn't look good to me at all. Watch the 12z runs come in with a huge storm now that I posted this. 

 

Edit: Ooops...meant to say 0z runs

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As each new run comes in this is getting weaker. Unfortunately it does not look like this is going to amount to much, maybe a nuisance snow at best. It just doesn't look good to me at all. Watch the 12z runs come in with a huge storm now that I posted this. 

Lol, I love it!

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Interesting, 18z PGFS showing a streak of snow from the Plains to the Lower Lakes.  I think the model may be sniffing out the faster northern stream.  This storm has steadily head back north over the last day or two on the PGFS specifically.

 

-PNA to strong to have this storm be an "Out to Sea"/East Coast storm...

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BTW, this system is already being sampled as it is heading due south along the west coast as it rides along the developing trough in the Rockies/4 corners where it will begin to cut-off near AZ/Vegas.  Should be getting a better handle on this system by tomorrow.

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Interesting, 18z PGFS showing a streak of snow from the Plains to the Lower Lakes. I think the model may be sniffing out the faster northern stream. This storm has steadily head back north over the last day or two on the PGFS specifically.

 

-PNA to strong to have this storm be an "Out to Sea"/East Coast storm...

might have to get out the leaf blower for this.
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Money is going to love the 00Z GGEM... Nice hit Wisconsin and Iowa but would be mostly a rainstorm for the Chicago peeps. So we went from suppressed garbage on the early morning runs to the now amplified solutions. I can't wait to see what the 00Z Euro is like considering the ensembles were a lot further NW than OP.

00Z GGEM New Years.png

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Money is going to love the 00Z GGEM... Nice hit Wisconsin and Iowa but would be mostly a rainstorm for the Chicago peeps. So we went from suppressed garbage on the early morning runs to the now amplified solutions. I can't wait to see what the 00Z Euro is like considering the ensembles were a lot further NW than OP.

-PNA all day babayyyy!  This has major written all over it.  I think we will see the Euro jump on board.  Better sampling of this cut-off system from the Balloon Network should start to translate to model consistency.

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108

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123000/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123000_108.png

 

 

112

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123000/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123000_112.png

 

114

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123000/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123000_114.png

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108

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123000/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123000_108.png

 

 

112

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123000/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123000_112.png

 

114

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123000/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123000_114.png

Yuck, I definitely hope that solution doesn't pan out...

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Nasty hit on the GGEM.

 

--

 

Kudos to Tom on sticking with the cutter, my south call's in danger. Suppose it's a win-win, though: I either get my call right, or get a good winter storm ;)

It's all in the fun of tracking winter storms my friend.  Go Hawks!  Just hope we get a snow storm outta this and not a mix situation.

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