New Year's Weekend Potential Major Winter Storm

[Tom]

Looking at the jet stream through HR 108,  it looks like it is going to want to phase this run...it hasn't been phasing this system over the past 3 runs...

[Tom]

Definitely forming a cutter this run...will post maps when they are fully loaded...

[Money]

1009 in SE IN at HR 120 it looks like

[tim the weatherman]

according to previous gfs runs that the 32 degree line goes south so this might not be an ice storm for no il.

[Scott26]

The 00Z Euro phases a bit too late for most of us, but it's definitely a step in the right direction.

[Tom]

The 00Z Euro phases a bit too late for most of us, but it's definitely a step in the right direction.

Close, but no cigar...certainly trending towards a lower lakes cutter though....

[winterfreak]

EURO still not very good. Not sure it will do a three sixty like many are hoping. Maybe for the lakes but not around here.

[Tom]

EURO still not very good. Not sure it will do a three sixty like many are hoping. Maybe for the lakes but not around here.

You mean 180, not a 360...if you do a 360 you end up in the same place...

[WildWisconsinWeather]

i think we will look at snow and not a mix.

 

Why?  It's not like there will be a snowpack to help temps or help it track further to the south.

[The Snowman]

It's all in the fun of tracking winter storms my friend.  Go Hawks!  Just hope we get a snow storm outta this and not a mix situation.

Must have been one heck of a game to be at, I know I was on pins & needles from the 3rd period onward...

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATANL/sat500_18.gif

The energy is now completely onshore, meaning the radiosonde network can now fully absorb the storm, as it appears to have done with vigor on the 0z runs. Whether this north trend continues remains to be seen, but anything from here on out is, in essence, fair game.

[winterfreak]

You mean 180, not a 360...if you do a 360 you end up in the same place...

Yeah I know you know what I meant. Lol I've never been very good at math.

[GDR]

Close, but no cigar...certainly trending towards a lower lakes cutter though....

wow this looks like one heck of a storm! Glad I stayed up for this run.

[The Snowman]

6z GFS= 6" in NC IL.

 

Back to bed.

[Grizzcoat]

06Z PAR GFS further west---  takes low right over Chicago at hour 120--. total snow through 132

[Scott26]

06Z GFS...

[Tony]

As each new run comes in this is getting weaker. Unfortunately it does not look like this is going to amount to much, maybe a nuisance snow at best. It just doesn't look good to me at all. Watch the 12z runs come in with a huge storm now that I posted this. 

 

Edit: Ooops...meant to say 0z runs

Interesting 0z runs. It looks like the EURO wants to cave into the rest of the modeling but is pretty weak with the precip. Canadian goes

bonkers with an ice storm(which by the way rarely happens for the Chi-Town area)and GFS keeps its same track now for the past several runs.

 

I was reading on one of the afd's that a 2nd northern wave coming from Asia will be the one to watch to see if we can get a phase out of this

to blowup a decent size storm.

 

I hope I have to eat my words above of a "nuisance snow" and the storm phases to blow up a major storm for all of us.

[Tony]

Here is part of the afd from Michigan I was alluding to:

 

AS FOR OUR SYSTEM THAT MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THIS

WEEKEND... OUR SPLITTING POLAR VORTEX PLAYS A ROLE. THE QUESTION IS

JUST HOW FAR SOUTH DOES THIS SYSTEM DIG INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED

STATES? CAN IT DIG ENOUGH TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM?

CURIOUSLY WHAT DRIVES THE PHASING (NOW SEEN ON THE ECMWF) IS A

SYSTEM COMING OFF OF NORTHERN ASIA NOW. THE SYSTEM THAT IS

CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DOES SEND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE

WESTERN RIDGE THAT AND HELPS TO DIG THE TROUGH BUT IT IS THE

SHORTWAVE THAT FOLLOWS THAT FROM A SYSTEM NOW COMING OFF SHORE NEAR

KAMCHATKA... THAT COMES INTO THE DIGGING TROUGH AT JUST THE RIGHT

TIME TO REALLY DIG THE UPPER TROUGH FARTHER WEST...ALLOWING FOR THE

PHASING THIS SYSTEM.

[Tony]

Quick "off topic" question.

 

When posting, all the editor options are not highlighted so I am unable to use emoticons etc... Anyone happen to know to fix this??

[james1976]

Nice write-up from that AFD. Things are looking pretty good right now. Hope for a phasing system so most of us can get in on the action.

[Money]

12z gfs is solid for a lot of posters here widespread 4-6

[BigDizBliz420]

I heard this is going to be good for Ohio?

[Scott26]

12Z PGFS...

 

[Madtown]

Trying not to get sucked into this one...sick of how these systems never phase or phase to late for the past 3 years.that puff map sums it up band north band south.

[Money]

The thing I like about this system is it should be already fully onshore and sampled. It's not like the last storms where the energy doesn't come onshore 48 hrs before the event. 

[WBadgersW]

Trying not to get sucked into this one...sick of how these systems never phase or phase to late for the past 3 years.that puff map sums it up band north band south.

Same here. Hopefully this storm will be different, but IMO it's a 50/50 chance.

[BigDizBliz420]

The thing I like about this system is it should be already fully onshore and sampled. It's not like the last storms where the energy doesn't come onshore 48 hrs before the event. 

 

 

the northern kicker (which is key) isn't even close to fully sampled

[Scott26]

This is shaping up to be a classic winter storm so no more of this warm air aloft and needing some dynamic cooling garbage. Now it's mostly track-dependent and how early or how late it phases. I understand being wary considering our luck so far, but I definitely think this has less bust potential. Models are showing that nice trowal feature with wrap around moisture as the low moves to the NE and deepens rapidly. The defo band looks pretty widespread so this could be a lot more of a "spread the wealth" type event.

[Money]

GGEM deepens the storm 21 mb in 12 hours

 

 

[Money]

HR 120

 

[gosaints]

Have seen this story before.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Have seen this story before.

 

I think I saw it just last week, albeit with a different setup.

[Hawkeye]

The models show the northern energy moving onshore on Friday.

[Money]

GGEM with the big ice storm again

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123012/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123012_095.png

[Money]

98

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123012/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123012_098.png

 

100

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123012/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123012_100.png

[Money]

104

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123012/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123012_104.png

 

105

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123012/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123012_105.png

[Tom]

It looks like the 12z GGEM has a much stronger northern stream which pulls the southern low farther north and bombs out north of Lake Huron.  It's the southern low that will end up being the stronger of the two pieces of energy.  I don't discount the GGEM, but I do think it has the northern piece to strong.  Same thing happened with the Christmas Eve system that had a stronger southern piece.  9 out of 10 times when you have a system come up from the south and merge with a northern piece, the southern piece will end up being the stronger of the two. 

[tim the weatherman]

i think that the ggem is wrong after tropical tidbits doesn't show about the ice storm hitting no il.

[Money]

It looks like the 12z GGEM has a much stronger northern stream which pulls the southern low farther north and bombs out north of Lake Huron.  It's the southern low that will end up being the stronger of the two pieces of energy.  I don't discount the GGEM, but I do think it has the northern piece to strong.  Same thing happened with the Christmas Eve system that had a stronger southern piece.  9 out of 10 times when you have a system come up from the south and merge with a northern piece, the southern piece will end up being the stronger of the two. 

 

Not saying it's wrong but the clear trend on the 0z and 12z models is for a stronger northern stream than progged the last few days. 

 

Tom, do you have the snow maps for the GEM by any chance?

[Tom]

Not saying it's wrong but the clear trend on the 0z and 12z models is for a stronger northern stream than progged the last few days. 

 

Tom, do you have the snow maps for the GEM by any chance?

12z GGEM...

[Scott26]

It looks like the 12z GGEM has a much stronger northern stream which pulls the southern low farther north and bombs out north of Lake Huron.  It's the southern low that will end up being the stronger of the two pieces of energy.  I don't discount the GGEM, but I do think it has the northern piece to strong.  Same thing happened with the Christmas Eve system that had a stronger southern piece.  9 out of 10 times when you have a system come up from the south and merge with a northern piece, the southern piece will end up being the stronger of the two. 

I agree completely. You definitely can't discount it because it's a plausible solution, but it's pretty rare for the northern stream to become dominant over the southern stream.