January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

For those who were jealous of us yesterday, don't be. This was a busted forecast with no snow.

Ouch that sucks. Maybe in a few weeks will get a chance....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The latter half of the extended appears to be trending more zonal right now.

[TT-SEA]

The latter half of the extended appears to be trending more zonal right now.

 

 

Not per the 12Z Canadian at 240 hours...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

The latter half of the extended appears to be trending more zonal right now.

 

 

Not per the 12Z parallel GFS at 240 hours:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010412/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_41.png

[liquidsnow]

Not per the 12Z parallel GFS at 240 hours:

 

http://s18.postimg.org/shzl96aop/Untitled.jpg

 

Fixed the map for you.

 

So what does the winter of 2015/16 have to offer?

[MossMan]

Sounds like it's snowing up in Blaine and Lynden acording to nws.

 

000

FPUS76 KSEW 041720

NOWSEW

 

SHORT TERM FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

920 AM PST SUN JAN 4 2015

 

WAZ503-042015-

WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLINGHAM...BLAINE...LYNDEN

920 AM PST SUN JAN 4 2015

 

.NOW...SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN NORTHWESTERN

WHATCOM COUNTY. IT IS CURRENTLY ACCUMULATING ON THE GROUND IN

AREAS AROUND LYNDEN AND SUMAS...BUT MAY SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE

CHANGING TO RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIVERS GOING THROUGH AREAS

WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD USE CAUTION. BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IS

ALSO POSSIBLE.

 

$$

 

JSMITH

[liquidsnow]

Sounds like it's snowing up in Blaine and Lynden acording to nws.

 

000

FPUS76 KSEW 041720

NOWSEW

 

SHORT TERM FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

920 AM PST SUN JAN 4 2015

 

WAZ503-042015-

WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLINGHAM...BLAINE...LYNDEN

920 AM PST SUN JAN 4 2015

 

.NOW...SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN NORTHWESTERN

WHATCOM COUNTY. IT IS CURRENTLY ACCUMULATING ON THE GROUND IN

AREAS AROUND LYNDEN AND SUMAS...BUT MAY SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE

CHANGING TO RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIVERS GOING THROUGH AREAS

WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD USE CAUTION. BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IS

ALSO POSSIBLE.

 

$$

 

JSMITH

 

 

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/nw/539vc01510.jpg

 

http://www.wsdot.com/traffic/border/default.aspx?cam=1529

 

Looks like a winter wonderland.

[TT-SEA]

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/nw/539vc01510.jpg

 

http://www.wsdot.com/traffic/border/default.aspx?cam=1529

 

Looks like a winter wonderland.

 

 

That was the most I could find... just a couple miles west in Blaine it looks wet.

 

 

http://s4.postimg.org/rvv13glgt/543vc00098.jpg

[HighlandExperience]

That was the most I could find... just a couple miles west in Blaine it looks wet.

 

 

 

 

Ya looks wet in places farther west unfortunately. Mountains are getting dumped on right now though.  Hopefully the rain later tonight won't do too much damage. 

[TT-SEA]

Ya looks wet in places farther west unfortunately. Mountains are getting dumped on right now though.  Hopefully the rain later tonight won't do too much damage. 

 

It looks pretty grim for the mountains.

[HighlandExperience]

It looks pretty grim for the mountains.

 

The only good thing is that it was really cold the last week or so. The base layer should be fine. Alot of the new snow they get in the next 12 hours will melt though. Will see Monday what the snowpack looks like after the heavy rain. 

[MossMan]

It's too bad we couldn't have gotten an overriding event with any of the three outbreaks this season, I kind of miss those now. 38 degree rain with a breezy SE wind...sad. oh well, the tail end of January into Feb will be ours!!

[Guest Winterdog]

Looks nice and toasty with a SW flow at 240 hrs on the Euro.

[TT-SEA]

Looks nice and toasty with a SW flow at 240 hrs on the Euro.

 

 

Can't make this pig look good... even with a bunch of mumbo-jumbo about tropical forcings and ensembles.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015010412!!chart.gif

[MossMan]

Can't make this pig look good... even with a bunch of goobbly-**** about tropical forcings and ensembles.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015010412!!chart.gif

Not too concerned about 240hrs out, it will look different tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

Not too concerned about 240hrs out, it will look different tomorrow.

 

 

Not really... all the models look almost exactly the same and its been trending that way for some time.   

[BLI snowman]

That was the most I could find... just a couple miles west in Blaine it looks wet.

 

 

http://s4.postimg.org/rvv13glgt/543vc00098.jpg

 

No, Lynden got a dusting with 2" or so in Sumas. Not sure how Abbotsford fared, seems likely slightly better than Lynden. 

[TT-SEA]

No, Lynden got a dusting with 2" or so in Sumas. Not sure how Abbotsford fared, seems likely slightly better than Lynden. 

 

 

I was referring to the snowy image... I know there was snow up there in places.   My post was mentioning that just a couple miles west of Lynden... it looked wet in Blaine.

[Bryant]

Can't make this pig look good... even with a bunch of mumbo-jumbo about tropical forcings and ensembles.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015010412!!chart.gif

If you payed attention, you'd realize that all the "mumbo-jumbo" regarding tropical forcing actually supports the Aleutian low pattern shown above during that time frame.

[MossMan]

I almost feel like taking a 45 min drive north to see this in person.

[BLI snowman]

I was referring to the snowy image... I know there was snow up there in places.   My post was mentioning that just a couple miles west of Lynden... it looked wet in Blaine.

 

Good example of how delicate these weak outflow events are. Blaine, Vancouver, and Bellingham get 34 degree rain while a few miles away at the same elevation there's snow. 

 

Definitely an underperformer for B.C. folks though. I thought more of V.I. and the Vancouver metro would score accumulations.

[TT-SEA]

If you payed attention, you'd realize that all the "mumbo-jumbo" regarding tropical forcing actually supports the Aleutian low pattern shown above during that time frame.

 

 

The talk of stuff beyond 10 days seems like mumbo-jumbo until it gets closer... too many things can change.     And then the details usually still ruin it for us.   We are in the heart of the golden Jan 1-10 period everyone talked about for the last month.    That did not work out well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today's CFS run will be telling...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If you payed attention, you'd realize that all the "mumbo-jumbo" regarding tropical forcing actually supports the Aleutian low pattern shown above during that time frame.

 

Looks like we will turn wet again.

[MossMan]

Brrr...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Brrr...

 

Looks like some nice 33 degree snow.  

 

I'd take some right now. The Christmas Eve snow has satisfied me for now. Plus with work and 3 kids I don't really have time for complaining anymore.

[TT-SEA]

Today's CFS run will be telling...

 

 

Yes... I will be focusing on the late March period which should be locked in on even the fine details by now.   

[bainbridgekid]

I almost feel like taking a 45 min drive north to see this in person.

Looks beautiful.

 

Isn't Sumas like a 90 minute drive from Arlington though? Might as well drive up to Stevens Pass.

 

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/us2/stvldg/sumtwest.jpg

[BLI snowman]

Looks like some nice 33 degree snow.

 

I'd take some right now. The Christmas Eve snow has satisfied me for now. Plus with work and 3 kids I don't really have time for complaining anymore.

 

Honestly, I think the quiet winter for you is a blessing. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Honestly, I think the quiet winter for you is a blessing. 

 

Probably true, an active snowy winter in about two years would be great when all the kids can enjoy it. 

 

My oldest daughter had just turned 1 before the February snowstorm, she loved it, but she was still to young to really spend more than 10-15 minutes outside getting pulled around on a sled.

[Bryant]

The talk of stuff beyond 10 days seems like mumbo-jumbo until it gets closer... too many things can change. And then the details usually still ruin it for us. We are in the heart of the golden Jan 1-10 period everyone talked about for the last month. That did not work out well.

That's why I have pushed myself to learn as much as possible regarding what I feel is one of the most underated tools in medium-long range forecasting. I got sick of depending solely on what the models were advertising, only to have them flip flop every day. Knowing the expected overall regime configuration before the models even show it is a great feeling. A feeling you'll never have the opportunity to experience if you continue to mock everyone.

[Front Ranger]

Today's CFS run will be telling...

 

Not that it means anything, but it's not as good. Still turns cold by late Jan, though!!! 

[Front Ranger]

That's why I have pushed myself to learn as much as possible regarding what I feel is one of the most underated tools in medium-long range forecasting. I got sick of depending solely on what the models were advertising, only to have them flip flop every day. Knowing the expected overall regime configuration before the models even show it is a great feeling. A feeling you'll never have the opportunity to experience if you continue to mock everyone.

 

Yeah, but in the end you still end up riding the models like everyone else...because they actually show the details that matter to weenies.

[Deweydog]

Yes... I will be focusing on the late March period which should be locked in on even the fine details by now.

Halo time?

[TT-SEA]

That's why I have pushed myself to learn as much as possible regarding what I feel is one of the most underated tools in medium-long range forecasting. I got sick of depending solely on what the models were advertising, only to have them flip flop every day. Knowing the expected overall regime configuration before the models even show it is a great feeling. A feeling you'll never have the opportunity to experience if you continue to mock everyone.

 

 

That is all fine... and I am not mocking but rather pointing out the reality that the details can completely change the result to something so different even if the overall configuration works out.   

 

And most people care more about the tangible weather at their location.   This week for example will be very wet initially and then very mild.    A  bust on Jan 1-10 period we all watched so closely even though the major players are in place.    

[Jesse]

Pretty remarkable what a solidly torchy period this is turning into. Aside from a ten day period in mid-Novemer and about a week around the beginning of the last two months, it has been a non-stop torch for the PNW for nearly 11 months now.

 

Good time to focus on other things besides weather.

[Guest Winterdog]

Front Ranger, on 04 Jan 2015 - 12:48 PM, said:

Yeah, but in the end you still end up riding the models like everyone else...because they actually show the details that matter to weenies.

I know I'm a near sighted tottering old weenie but my motto is, if it doesn't show it in the GFS operational within three days it probably won't happen. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty remarkable what a solidly torchy period this is turning into. Aside from a ten day period in mid-Novemer and about a week around the beginning of the last two months, it has been a non-stop torch for the PNW for nearly 11 months now.

 

Good time to focus on other things besides weather.

 

I'm starting to feel like the torching will probably end in about April. 

[bainbridgekid]

I know I'm a near sighted tottering old weenie but my motto is, if it doesn't show it in the GFS operational within three days it probably won't happen. 

That really is a bit silly. The models have improved tremendously in the 4-7 day period over the last few years.

 

They obviously still struggle with the details, but if the models agree on a region-wide arctic blast inside 7 days, it's probably going to happen. Snow is much more fickle and based on the details so I can understand your skepticism there.

[Bryant]

Yeah, but in the end you still end up riding the models like everyone else...because they actually show the details that matter to weenies.

Not sure what you're getting at here? That's a pretty obvious statement.