January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Snowman5678]

61 degrees here currently. Meanwhile the click forecast for my sisters place in NYC. 24-37" of snow with thunder possible. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-73.96552&lat=40.80387#.VMVVQP7F98F 

[Deweydog]

65 degrees here... seems to be a little cooler down in the valley.   Feels like a nice May day here.   My daughter and I went for a bike ride and she told me 'its nice to have summer again'.  

 

 

All your snow is gone?  

[bainbridgekid]

61 degrees here currently. Meanwhile the click forecast for my sisters place in NYC. 24-37" of snow with thunder possible. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-73.96552&lat=40.80387#.VMVVQP7F98F 

Historic.

[DareDuck]

68 yesterday under sunny skies, 46 now under the inversion. Want to hike Spencer's butte, but it only goes up to 2,000 feet, how warm should it be up there?

[Snowman5678]

Historic.

 

Yeah, I so wish I was out there...This looks stronger than the storm a couple years ago where my place in SW CT got 36" of snow. 

[Jesse]

Thank goodness summer-like temperatures are back in spots. It's been a long month and a half.

[Front Ranger]

61 degrees here currently. Meanwhile the click forecast for my sisters place in NYC. 24-37" of snow with thunder possible. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-73.96552&lat=40.80387#.VMVVQP7F98F 

 

The storm has apparently crashed the server over at americanwx.com.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah that could be hard to pull off. I do believe the lowlands will still get some snow this winter and the mountains will get crushed in march.

sounds exciting...

[Jesse]

Nice to see valley inversions get their teeth back today. Little reminder that it's still winter. Yesterday was a perfect storm for warmth at the lowest elevations down here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some 70s on the Oregon Coast.

[luvssnow_spokane]

If only we could have that kind of traffic.

if we got a storm like that here we would.

[Deweydog]

Sexy 70 at Newport.

[Deweydog]

80 at Yellowstone Mt. (3,000 feet)

[Timmy]

Cannon beach, looks like August on a good day. 65f.

 

 

Picture won't upload from my mobile, but the beach is completely packed, a few shirtless dudes in lawn chairs. It's a little dramatic but yolo.

[Deweydog]

Boston NWS's forecast discussion mentions nothing of our mild foothill temps.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

61 degrees here currently. Meanwhile the click forecast for my sisters place in NYC. 24-37" of snow with thunder possible. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-73.96552&lat=40.80387#.VMVVQP7F98F 

 

That seems just a little overdone, 12-24" is far more likely, especially for NYC; they're playing with fire at the edge of primary precipitation shield and could end up with under 12" with a slight shift to the east.

 

This is that storm at forecast its prime, looks like a decent storm but it's being pretty hyped:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_039_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[luminen]

Boston NWS's forecast discussion mentions nothing of our mild foothill temps.

 

Jeff Masters of Wunderground:

The densely populated area from New York City to Boston could experience one of its ten biggest snowstorms on record early this week, as a textbook nor’easter takes shape over the next 48 hours. While local details are bound to evolve somewhat as the storm develops, the models are now in strong, consistent agreement on a potentially crippling snowstorm. Blizzard watches were hoisted on Sunday morning from eastern New Jersey to northeast Massachusetts, including the New York, Providence, and Boston metropolitan areas. 

 

Despite the increasing skill of computer forecast models in recent years, this week’s threat emerged remarkably quickly. As recently as Friday, the model consensus was for a weaker storm that would sweep through the region from west to east, then strengthen well offshore. One of the first models to switch gears was the ECMWF, whose operational run issued at 00Z Friday night highlighted the risk of a potential blockbuster storm for the Northeast U.S. By Saturday morning, most other models had quickly joined the bandwagon. “All operational models now have the forecast of a major snowstorm/blizzard,” said NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center on Sunday morning.

 

The driver for this record-threatening event is a strong upper-level wave now diving across the Midwest. In line with the pattern of several other storms this year, this wave will produce a stripe of snow from northern Indiana and Ohio into Pennsylvania, dropping several inches on the Washington and Philadelphia metro areas by Monday afternoon. On its heels, a powerful branch of the jet stream will continue diving southeastward, intensified by a unusually strong ridge over the western U.S. that produced record highs across Washington, Oregon, and California on Saturday. As it moves off the mid-Atlantic coast, the upper-level energy will consolidate into a powerful upper-level low and generate a rapidly intensifying surface low. Surface pressures may drop by more than 24 millibars in 24 hours, qualifying the storm as a true coastal “bomb". Sea surface temperatures are well above average off the northeast U.S. coast, which could help fuel the storm’s strengthening. As it reaches peak intensity on Tuesday, the surface low is expected to slow down just southeast of Cape Cod, which would keep the snow machine going at full strength and lash the New England coast with winds gusting to 60 mph or more in places. 

[bainbridgekid]

Having fun tracking the NE snowstorm with some friends who live out there.

 

Meanwhile I'm walking around Greenlake in shorts right now and am perfectly comfortable. It could easily be a fairly nice June day.

[MossMan]

Just got done washing all of our cars/truck/SUV's in my shorts and Seahawks T-Shirt...and blinded everyone within a 4 mile radius with my very white legs!! Feels like May out there.

[antipex]

Yesterday I biked up to Council Crest in t-shirt and shorts – it was in the low 60s down here in SE Portland and even warmer up above 1000 ft at the summit! I only felt chilly coming down through Goose Hollow, where it seems a pool of cooler air had settled in against the east side of the hills.

 

The temperature difference over a few miles is amazing today. It's 59 at about 200 ft elevation near Laurelhurst Park with hazy/murky sunshine, and 49 at PDX about 5 miles to the north.

[richard mann]

-
More positive "spin" perhaps, and not wanting to focus too strongly on the Alaska's at least starting to get colder at this point idea, … @ .. @ / @
 
— This with the idea that this more current propensity could [in fact] be just more temporary:  with the higher latitude wave more currently moving through it perhaps being more, only that, and not followed by others, …
 
None the less hopeful, and where looking at the advent more positively, what I'm looking at are two main ideas set along with, or even more against, how things might be being looked at otherwise, mainly and more basically "the models", out to 7-10 days. 
 
First the models—and if with my marking the idea here important to it, that I probably have a fairly unique perspective regarding what they generate, as with my in fact not wanting to distort my view where working to assess to project main colder air mass movement where looking ahead with using more seat-of-the-pants methods, I don't check them. 
 
.. With checking the main "verification" of the main European model, I'm noting that in fact it didn't "catch" the current wave of cold moving through Alaska—certainly not very well—at 7 days. 
 
.. This with then my other main thought being, if repeated here, that with broader cold—i.e. that through the main mid-latitudes, together along with to a certain extent those higher—per my view being in general recession mode at this point (i.e. back toward its main higher latitude source regions north, essentially recoiling following a better distribution of cold more south.), that this whole idea more general where looked at, and if allowing warmer air to move more northward, is at the same time, working to allow for better general consolidation of main and more primary cold north.
 
The main more hemispheric scope IR, 3-hourly .. here again. - http://theweatherfor...thwest/?p=65101

[MossMan]

I am a little irritated about these clouds that have spread over keeping my temps down a bit.

[epiceast]

I think there's a chance that ridge might fail at hour 72 and rebuild over midwest... 12z Euro looks pretty seasonal at least.

 

I hiked in Oregon coast range today, and there is still some green grass...

[whitechristmas]

Jeff Masters of Wunderground:

The densely populated area from New York City to Boston could experience one of its ten biggest snowstorms on record early this week, as a textbook nor’easter takes shape over the next 48 hours. While local details are bound to evolve somewhat as the storm develops, the models are now in strong, consistent agreement on a potentially crippling snowstorm. Blizzard watches were hoisted on Sunday morning from eastern New Jersey to northeast Massachusetts, including the New York, Providence, and Boston metropolitan areas. 

 

Despite the increasing skill of computer forecast models in recent years, this week’s threat emerged remarkably quickly. As recently as Friday, the model consensus was for a weaker storm that would sweep through the region from west to east, then strengthen well offshore. One of the first models to switch gears was the ECMWF, whose operational run issued at 00Z Friday night highlighted the risk of a potential blockbuster storm for the Northeast U.S. By Saturday morning, most other models had quickly joined the bandwagon. “All operational models now have the forecast of a major snowstorm/blizzard,” said NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center on Sunday morning.

 

 

 

Oh, how nice. Their weather models all went into agreement in what.....12 hours?? We can't get agreement in 12 days! Must be nice.

[HighlandExperience]

Jeff Masters of Wunderground:

The densely populated area from New York City to Boston could experience one of its ten biggest snowstorms on record early this week, as a textbook nor’easter takes shape over the next 48 hours. While local details are bound to evolve somewhat as the storm develops, the models are now in strong, consistent agreement on a potentially crippling snowstorm. Blizzard watches were hoisted on Sunday morning from eastern New Jersey to northeast Massachusetts, including the New York, Providence, and Boston metropolitan areas. 

 

 

It is amazing how every place but the Northwest is capable of historic events. Hope they get nothing but rain lol  jk

[Jbolin]

63 looks to go down as Seatac's official high today

[wx_statman]

63 looks to go down as Seatac's official high today

 

Just missed the monthly record of 64, set in 1981.

[wx_statman]

77 on 1-17-2014

77 on 1-16-2009

76 on 1-19-2013

75 on 2-13-1996

75 on 2-23-1995

74 on 1-15-2009

74 on 2-27-1992

 

These are their DJF maximums since the station went online in 1985. Will be interesting to see where they land today. Third straight January they're shooting for the stars.

 

76 today at Horse Creek.

[wx_statman]

69 at RDM. Monthly record for a second straight day after yesterday's 67.

 

Tillamook RAWS hit 70 earlier. The COOP station there has never been above 69 in January.

[snow_wizard]

It is amazing how every place but the Northwest is capable of historic events. Hope they get nothing but rain lol  jk

I think what we are getting now says we will in the not too distant future (not talking about this year though). Things always even out. Always.

 

When you look at what came after the late 30s / early 40s mega torch you get the idea. That having been said it's going to be painful getting through the rest of this warm regime.

[TT-SEA]

I think what we are getting now says we will in the not too distant future (not talking about this year though). Things always even out. Always.

 

When you look at what came after the late 30s / early 40s mega torch you get the idea. That having been said it's going to be painful getting through the rest of this warm regime.

Today was far from painful. LOVED IT.

[wx_statman]

Sexy 70 at Newport.

 

Looks like a first for January there at least in modern times. 69 in 1981 at the COOP was previous highest. There are a couple of shaky looking readings in the 70's from 1893 and 1895.

 

North Bend into the 70's in back to back January's (73 in 2014 and 70 today) for the first time since records began in 1902.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS really tries to get us into a better pattern.

[snow_wizard]

Even Montana is torching right now. Quite an epic event in it's own right.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah that could be hard to pull off. I do believe the lowlands will still get some snow this winter and the mountains will get crushed in march.

I actually think a full blown Arctic blast is as likely as us getting into some other kind of satisfying pattern. The highest chance is that we stay in an overwhelming warm regime at least well into spring.

[wx_statman]

74 today at Wanderer's Peak (4,350'). Tops last year's 73, but they hit an incredible 78 on 1/16/2009.

[BLI snowman]

Even Montana is torching right now. Quite an epic event in it's own right.

 

Everyone west of the Great Lakes has had it bad this month now. Been an awful winter for the Northern Plains.

[BLI snowman]

65/53 at BFI today.

 

January is the new May. Or we could even call it June-uary.

[wx_statman]

Bend airport hit 68. Monthly record at the COOP is 67.

 

Looking north, 65 at Boeing Field. Didn't they hit 69 in December?

[wx_statman]

65/53 at BFI today.

 

January is the new May. Or we could even call it June-uary.

 

Beat me to it.