Money Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 GFS continues to show a pretty good clipper affecting most of the area with Chicago getting 6-10 in the latest 12z run. It looks like the UKIE has joined the GFS with a pretty strong clipper (although you can't see the precip maps, it has it about 10 mb stronger than the GFS at the same time) This could be a very high ratio event (15-20:1) which should fluff up totals. GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png UKIE at HR 120 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 GFS continues to show a pretty good clipper affecting most of the area with Chicago getting 6-10 in the latest 12z run. It looks like the UKIE has joined the GFS with a pretty strong clipper (although you can't see the precip maps, it has it about 10 mb stronger than the GFS at the same time) This could be a very high ratio event (15-20:1) which should fluff up totals. GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png UKIE at HR 120 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gifWith the weekend storm starting to look like mostly a miss to the NW for Chicago I'm definitely looking forward to this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 I'd be stoked to get some warning snows with this clipper. GFS has been the only model showing these kind of snowfall amounts. It also was the only mode with the west trend going for the Jan 3rd storm. Let's see how this one unfolds. Like Scott said, Chicago is probably going to end up with a mix transition to backside snows for the Jan 3rd storm so I'll take this snow and run! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 How's the euro look, Tom? GFS ensembles http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f120.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 12z Euro starting to see the snow potential...looks like S WI/N IL/N IN/S MI are in the right spot for this one for now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 GFS sniffed this one out a long time ago and now the other models are caving in. King GFS this winter? haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 12z Euro starting to see the snow potential...looks like S WI/N IL/N IN/S MI are in the right spot for this one for now... Those ratios are 10:1 as well, so EURO showing about .2-.25 QPF and it will probably be 20:1 ratios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 Those ratios are 10:1 as well, so EURO showing about .2-.25 QPF and it will probably be 20:1 ratios. Exactly, it would easily fluff up to 20:1 ratios or even higher than that. Man, can't believe how good the GFS is performing this winter TBH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 GFS showing 17-25:1 ratios in Chicago. 150106/0300Z 111 23008KT 2.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0150106/0600Z 114 19008KT 5.4F SNOW 17:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 17:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0150106/0900Z 117 19010KT 8.3F SNOW 17:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.181 17:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0150106/1200Z 120 18010KT 11.4F SNOW 19:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.128 18:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150106/1500Z 123 24005KT 15.9F SNOW 25:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 19:1| 6.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 18z GFS is consistent. 6+ from MKE down to Chicago and west into Iowa etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 18z GFS....staying very consistent with the overall track and intensity... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 18z GFS....staying very consistent with the overall track and intensity...I will be blown away if I have 14" of snow on the ground by next Tuesday! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 I will be blown away if I have 14" of snow on the ground by next Tuesday!Get ready buddy, your in a primo spot...you may experience something similar to what we did last year in January when we saw back to back systems in a week that dumped a total of 20" of snow. Might not hit that much but what a treat that would be for IA since last year you guys were right on the edge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 18z Parallel GFS started to bring it back. Weaker, but big improvement over 12z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 Anybody think the GFS is overdoing it? It seems pretty strong and it has some parts of Iowa getting 2 inches of snow per hour. It is also the only model showing this much snow. Euro gives us 1-2 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 Anybody think the GFS is overdoing it? It seems pretty strong and it has some parts of Iowa getting 2 inches of snow per hour. It is also the only model showing this much snow. Euro gives us 1-2 inches.I'd be surprised if GFS verified with that much snow, however it has been very consistent. Will be interesting to see if Euro strengthens a bit with tonight's run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 What has GEM been showing lately? I havent heard any talk on the last few runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 Anybody think the GFS is overdoing it? It seems pretty strong and it has some parts of Iowa getting 2 inches of snow per hour. It is also the only model showing this much snow. Euro gives us 1-2 inches.That Euro map is 10:1 snow ratios and it has been playing catch up with this system. GGEM/GFS were the first to sniff this Clipper out. I'd pay attn to the GFS and also the NAM when in range as they are better with handling these type of systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 Here is a better look at the 18z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 The reason why the gfs is showing so much is because it has 20:1 ratio snow QPF wise it's showing between .3 and .4 which isn't far off from the 12z euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 The reason why the gfs is showing so much is because it has 20:1 ratio snow QPF wise it's showing between .3 and .4 which isn't far off from the 12z euroThat GFS snowfall map is 20:1? I thought all snowfall maps were 10:1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 That GFS snowfall map is 20:1? I thought all snowfall maps were 10:1.The GFS maps already take into account the snow fall ratios. The Wx Bell maps don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 This system I'm looking forward to. I don't think this system will have any mixing issues! lol Potent wave for coming out of the northwest. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 The GFS maps already take into account the snow fall ratios. The Wx Bell maps don't.Ahhh...i did not know that. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 00z GFS still painting warning type snows over MN/IA/N IL/S WI/N IN/S MI... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 00z GFS still painting warning type snows over MN/IA/N IL/S WI/N IN/S MI... Only a matter of time before this thread is put on life support like the others have been! Just kidding. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 00z GFS still painting warning type snows over MN/IA/N IL/S WI/N IN/S MI...Hard to get excited about that when the first storm for this weekend is 36 hours away and the models are still throwing big changes at us. That being said, at least I can go to bed tonight knowing the GFS stayed put with this event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 This system I'm looking forward to. I don't think this system will have any mixing issues! lol Potent wave for coming out of the northwest.Same here...these potent waves coming off of the northern Pacific can bring some juice with it. Reminds me of a heavy duty Clipper that hit our region back in the late 90's and producing a wide east/west swath of heavy snows. When you can get underneath the banding that develops with these type of systems, it can snow heavily for hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Only a matter of time before this thread is put on life support like the others have been! Just kidding. Hard to get excited about that when the first storm for this weekend is 36 hours away and the models are still throwing big changes at us. That being said, at least I can go to bed tonight knowing the GFS stayed put with this event.I think this system has a much better chance to seeing significant snows because the models don't have to figure out phasing, precip type, temp profiles, etc. Having said that, the GFS hasn't budged at all on the track over the last 2 days. Hoping it stays put. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 00z PGFS now seeing this significant wave...will post maps when fully loaded...looks identical to the 00z GFS.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 00z PGFS....you can add up the total QPF on your own because Wx Bell doesn't have a way to distinguish total precip for this wave alone... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010200/gfsp_asnow_us_20.png Both storms combined. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 They project Monday's high to be 3F, so I think temps with this snow will be in the single digits lol, hopefully there won't be too much of a good thing (cold air) to negatively impact ratios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 They project Monday's high to be 3F, so I think temps with this snow will be in the single digits lol, hopefully there won't be too much of a good thing (cold air) to negatively impact ratios.I think temps rise a bit into the mid/upper teens when the snow arrives Monday night... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 UKIE 96 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif 120 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010200/gfsp_asnow_us_20.png Both storms combined. This snowfall map actually looks better (even if slightly overdone) compared to the WxBell snowfall maps because the ratios will be sky high given the DGZ depth and WxBell snowfall maps are assuming 10:1 which is way too low Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 They project Monday's high to be 3F, so I think temps with this snow will be in the single digits lol, hopefully there won't be too much of a good thing (cold air) to negatively impact ratios. That thought crossed my mind a bit. Would be nice to keep temps above 15° while it's snowing. GFS has us getting down near -10° behind this Clipper. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 0z euro looks like it's a lot stronger with the clipper. At least surface wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 00z Euro is coming north with this Clipper... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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