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January 5th/6th Potential Clipper


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Would probably favor a further south solution like tom said though the article plunge doesn't look as impressive as it did a couple days ago for Sunday night and Monday. Models really are handling it well as they are all basically within 100 miles of each other. Should get some better sampling shortly. From an imby perspective I would love to see the nam.verify but know riding any one solution right now is crazy.

 

South trend overnight is evident. Question. Is if it has stopped or more to come. Also sometimes after the models do jump they end up adjusting back a little. That is in a normal winter. We all know how model performance has been this winter

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Another thing, which hasnt been mentioned much yet, is that it is supposed to be very windy right behind this sytem. This will be a fluffy snow and wind profiles are pretty intense. There should be a lot of blowing snow. Also, very dangerous wind chills. IMO, this so far is THE storm of the season, potentially.

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With the 12z run in range, the UK is a carbon copy of the GFS with a heavy band right across Iowa.  :wub:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_048-072_0000.gif

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Please refrain from posting. You clearly know nothing about the weather.

Ok really? I am sure you a model reading wizard. I forgot that the euro maps are 10:1 . I made that statement after seeing the anemic ggem and euro.

 

Maybe you could give me a lesson in atmospheric dynamics.

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Generally speaking, unlike last year when we had these Clipper systems that had a 25-50 mile wide band of heavier snows that almost always placed it over N IL...this Clipper seems to be shaping up to have a broader 6"+ band about 200 miles wide which gives alot of us a better chance to seeing warning type snows.  I guess you would call this a "share the wealth" Clipper.

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Hi-res NAM:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015010318/nam4km_ref_us_19.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015010318/nam4km_asnow_us_21.png

Hi-Rez Nam going bonkers on the snowfall totals exceeding 16"+...I'd take half that!   :wub:

 

I have seen these type of systems over achieve especially with such an intense speed max streaking along the jet stream which can produce a lot of "lift" resulting in intense frontogenesis snows.

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