Geos Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 D**n, thats way north than any of the models. I'm curious if the mountain "torque" may throw a curve ball in the modeling for tonight's 00z runs. Mountain torque? What's that theory say? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Almost identical low placement at hour 18 on the nam to 18z maybe a tick weaker. First thoughts would be it ends up slightly south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Just thought I would see what you guys think, but how does a flight landing tomorrow at 10:25 p.m. at Midway fare in all of this?It'll def be snowing by then and may be delayed. Mountain torque? What's that theory say?It can either slow or speed up the system in modeling as it traverses the mountain range. I know for the Euro it has a bias to slow it down. That's why tomorrow it will be important to see where the precip starts breaking out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 00z NAM is almost the same as 18Z, but maybe a tick south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 I'd hate to be on the southern fringe of this thing. That cut-off is nasty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Heaviest snow fall is falling farther north this run though that 18z run....barely, but noticeable...DSM looks borderline...N IL does well this run I think Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Ehh, about the same....no more 12" lolipops though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Ya tom decent run here to. Should be at a time frame where the nam is viable as most of the system is on shore. Who knows though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 00z NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 All I know is this system will have some intense banding with it....Kaner!!!!!! Doh! D**n Stars score... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 0z Nam took off only .04" of qpf from the 18z run. I'll still take that as it is still nearly 5" total for DSM Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 0z Nam took off only .04" of qpf from the 18z run. I'll still take that as it is still nearly 5" total for DSMThat pivot is probably going to split the north side and south side. It's going to be a nail bitter. As we all know, models just spit out a "best guess" scenario and precip doesnt actually fall in a straight line like in the maps we all post. Should be fun watching the radar tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Right on the 8" line here. Been very consistent. That map lines up perfectly with the warnings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Hey everyone! Used to post on the old weather forum a year or two ago. Decided to re join and see what was going on. Seems like you guys are still right on target with this strong clipper. I am about 15 miles SW of Des Moines. Really wishing I was on the NE side of town for this one. But, at least we got a nice start from this mornings disturbance. About 1.5" at my place. Good to see some familiar screen names from years ago. Best of luck with this storm...a lot of us should do well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 I am heading up to Sioux Falls from Omaha early tomorrow morning, to work in the area through midday Tuesday, and all I can say, is WOW what incredible timing! Looks like the area I will be in will be in store for a good 4-8 inches of snow by event's end tomorrow night, will be interested to see if any intense bands form in southeast South Dakota and if Sioux Falls can get under one of those babies, might not get much work done in the afternoon if that happens LOL. If you can't get any good snows in your own backyard, might as well head somewhere where they will haha! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 00Z hi res NAM-- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 My final call for MBY is 2-4 inches. I'm pretty confident with that amount. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 hi-res liquid-- this would make one he(( of a clipper- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 I think it comes down to Grizz, James, and Hawkeye for getting the heaviest amounts with this system. LOT just posted this new map. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 I laughed so hard when you made the joke and in response Snowman posts 500 hPa Heights/Absolute Vorticity lol. Hahahahhaha I was like...uhhh....? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Funny Snowman! RGEM moisture map. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 That is great, Snowman. Just made me lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Hahahahahahhahha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Hawks win! What a game! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 through 42- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Loving that map for me, just sw of Des Moines! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 That Blackhawk game though... Wow. Terrible, terrible defense. But they found a way to pull it out. That goal from Richards, no words for that. And Crawford about gave me a heart attack at the end there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 GFS sucks. Weaker and south. But....prolly realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Go Blues!!! Sorry couldn't resist---too many Blackhawks fans here! Let's go Blues! (and Cardinals, of course). I am sure that just won me tons of friends on here.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 00Z GFS Precip Map? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 -- .42qpf for DSM Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Go Blues!!! Sorry couldn't resist---too many Blackhawks fans here! Let's go Blues! (and Cardinals, of course). I am sure that just won me tons of friends on here.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Nicely done, East Dubzz. Used to live in Chicago and St. Louis; clearly I went with the better sports town for my fan choice! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Iowa WX--- .32qpf for CID Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Nicely done, East Dubzz. Used to live in Chicago and St. Louis; clearly I went with the better sports town for my fan choice! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Thundersnow mentioned on AMwx that the RAP is cutting the low even farther north that the NAM. fwiw Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 I would be interested in that, but its the RAP.... Not saying it can't be right, but it's the RAP... Will probably correct itself as it gets closer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Thundersnow mentioned on AMwx that the RAP is cutting the low even farther north that the NAM. fwiwJust read that on local forum. Interesting. Is it a trustworthy model? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Just read that on local forum. Interesting. Is it a trustworthy model? Sometimes is can pick up on a trend. If it stays consistent all night, then I'd give it more notice. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 PAR GFS Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.