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2014 Goes Down As Warmest Year On Record For Seattle


snow_wizard

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To say 2014 was an incredibly warm year for Seattle WA would be quite an understatement indeed. Besides the record high annual average a number of months ended up in the top 10% warmest on record for those months with October and December being the warmest ever recorded at Sea-Tac Airport.

 

The abnormal warmth was caused by a persistent trough of low pressure off the West Coast which frequently pumped up warm air from lower latitudes into the Pacific Northwest. Much of the year was marked by persistent warmth and abnormally warm minimum temperatures as opposed to notable heat waves which served to make the overall warmth less noticeable than some previous warm years. The warm December was quite notable in that the month began with Arctic air over the region and ended with another round of chilly continental air that ended the month on a cold note. In between the two cold snaps the rest of the month was tremendously warm with temperatures approaching 70 degrees at one point. The warmth in October was most impressive with the monthly average of 58.0 crushing the previous benchmark of 55.8 set in 1987

 

Below are some stats from 2014.

 

Annual average - 55.0 - previous record 54.4 set in 1995

 

October average - 58.0 - previous record 55.8 set in 1987

 

December average - 45.3 - previous record 45.2 set in 1969

 

September average 64.8 - exceeded only by 1967 with an average of 65.7

 

July average 69.2 - exceeded only by 2009 with an average of 69.5

 

August average - 69.2 - exceeded only by 1967 and 2013

 

In addition to all of those outstandingly warm months March and May also average much above normal values.

 

The good news for fans of cooler weather is the fact previous very warm years such as 1958, 1992, and 1995 invariably gave way to considerably cooler weather the following year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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BLI did it too!

 

Wasn't sure they were gonna make it, but they pulled through at the 11th hour.

 

1958 held the record at 52.30, 2014 literally just edged it out at 52.32. 

 

December 2014 wound up in a rather unassuming 8th place all time at BLI. 

 

Unfortunately for us this winter looks increasingly unlikely to join the ranks of our typical post-annual blowtorch winters. Disappointing. Will just be interesting for now to see how long this can continue and see if January 2015 continues the incredibly persistent trend of massive upper level January torches over our region.

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At OLM, which I always like to look at since it's maintained relatively little development around it, 2014 finished a full degree cooler than the record year of 1958. This was still good for #2 all-time, barely edging out 1992.

 

December wasn't even remotely close to being record warm.

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At OLM, which I always like to look at since it's maintained relatively little development around it, 2014 finished a full degree cooler than the record year of 1958. This was still good for #2 all-time, barely edging out 1992.

 

December wasn't even remotely close to being record warm.

It was a freaking torch in this area. I'm pretty sure Landsburg came in with an time warm year. They have nearly 100 years of temperature records.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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No record at OLM = not a warm year.

 

These are the facts!

 

I didn't say that. That's a fact. It was a very warm year, one of the warmest on record for western WA as a whole.

 

When doing long term comparisons, it always makes the most sense to look at the stations that have had the least amount of change around them, since UHI/land changes effects are well-documented. Which is why I always look at OLM and/or EUG. Doesn't make those stations the be-all, end-all, but it certainly makes sense to include them in the discussion.

A forum for the end of the world.

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At OLM, which I always like to look at since it's maintained relatively little development around it, 2014 finished a full degree cooler than the record year of 1958. This was still good for #2 all-time, barely edging out 1992.

 

December wasn't even remotely close to being record warm.

No record at Olympia? NO STARS!!!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I didn't say that. That's a fact. It was a very warm year, perhaps the warmest on record for western WA as a whole.

 

When doing long term comparisons, it always makes the most sense to look at the stations that have had the least amount of change around them, since UHI/land changes effects are well-documented. Which is why I always look at OLM and/or EUG. Doesn't make those stations the be-all, end-all, but it certainly makes sense to include them in the discussion.

 

It just ends up looking funny when you do it every time. OLM isn't the best rural station to represent western WA anyway. No single station is.

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It just ends up looking funny when you do it every time. OLM isn't the best rural station to represent western WA anyway. No single station is.

 

What stations would you recommend? OLM is the most prominent of the "rural" stations.

 

I agree that one station doesn't represent all of western WA. I think I made that pretty clear in my last post. All I did was bring up OLM's 2014. You might notice that other people were also bringing up other stations.

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What stations would you recommend? OLM is the most prominent of the "rural" stations.

 

I agree that one station doesn't represent all of western WA. I think I made that pretty clear in my last post. All I did was bring up OLM's 2014. You might notice that other people were also bringing up other stations.

 

I have no idea. Its never wise to use one station over and over though, especially for "counter argument" purposes.

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It was a freaking torch in this area. I'm pretty sure Landsburg came in with an time warm year. They have nearly 100 years of temperature records.

 

Looks like Landsburg finished 2014 #4 behind 1940, 1934, and 1990.

 

At Clearbrook, another rural station near the Canadian border that has a pretty good station record, 2014 finished #4 behind 1958, 2004, and 1941.

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California as a whole finished 1.8F warmer than the next warmest year ever recorded (Off the charts). Here at Tahoe I am at +7.8F above average for the year!

Seems really weird for the entire west coast to torch from San Diego to Seattle.

 

Yeah, CA and NV saw the biggest torch by far. This map illustrates that.

 

 

 

A forum for the end of the world.

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Looks like Landsburg finished 2014 #4 behind 1940, 1934, and 1990.

 

At Clearbrook, another rural station near the Canadian border that has a pretty good station record, 2014 finished #4 behind 1958, 2004, and 1941.[/size]

Yeah...I pretty much buy 1940 but 1990 was missing December in the calculation due to too many missing days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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California as a whole finished 1.8F warmer than the next warmest year ever recorded (Off the charts). Here at Tahoe I am at +7.8F above average for the year!

Seems really weird for the entire west coast to torch from San Diego to Seattle.

+7.8? Wow!

 

I can't wait to see the payback on this. If this ends up like the 1930s there will be some.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Interesting. Portland didn't even have a top 10 warm December considering the 1872-present period of record, but considering only the airport location from 1940-present it tied for 5th warmest on record.

Top 10 warmest Decembers

48.4 - 1917
47.7 - 1875
46.8 - 1882
46.7 - 1933
46.4 - 1950 (warmest at PDX station)
45.8 - 1925
45.6 - 1939
45.5 - 1886

45.3 - 1929

44.9 - 1900

 

Interestingly no top 10 warm Decembers since 1950 considering the entire POR...if we consider just downtown numbers however (rather than threaded) the only two besides 1950 that stand out are 1958 and 1966 with nothing that would land in the top 10 list above after Dec 1966. We've had a lot of normal to cooler than normal Decembers since 1966.

Top 5 warm Decembers downtown Portland 1940-present

48.2 - 1950
46.5 - 1958
46.0 - 1966
45.0 - 1953

45.0 - 1947

44.7 - 2014 at downtown KGW station

Nothing above 45.0 since 1966 downtown.

Top 5 warm Decembers Portland Intl Airport (PDX), 1940-present:

46.4 - 1950
44.7 - 1973

44.4 - 1979

44.2 - 1966

44.1 - 2014 (tie for 5th warmest)
44.1 - 1974

2014 is the first December to reach top 5 since 1979 (35 years) which is nearly half the airport POR, pretty remarkable.

Extant data suggests December 1950 was probably the warmest December in at least the last 80 or so years and due to siting issues the earlier downtown values may be too high. If we are to trust them however the warmest December was 1917 which was a torch across the entire Northwest with record December warmth in portions of Idaho as well.
 

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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I didn't say that. That's a fact. It was a very warm year, one of the warmest on record for western WA as a whole.

 

When doing long term comparisons, it always makes the most sense to look at the stations that have had the least amount of change around them, since UHI/land changes effects are well-documented. Which is why I always look at OLM and/or EUG. Doesn't make those stations the be-all, end-all, but it certainly makes sense to include them in the discussion.

SEA had some major changes during its lifetime...including much more urban development in the 1970s through 1990s versus how the area looked in the 1950s and 60s. Then in the 2000s the airport had a major runway redesign which likely affected SEA due to a change in the ground surface type in the vicinity of the ASOS (radiative sensitivity of the surfaces in the vicinity, albedo of said surfaces etc). It seems SEA has had a warm bias overall since that time which may explain to some degree why SEA had a record warm year in 2014 versus just a top quintile warm year for some other western Washington stations.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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To say 2014 was an incredibly warm year for Seattle WA would be quite an understatement indeed. Besides the record high annual average a number of months ended up in the top 10% warmest on record for those months with October and December being the warmest ever recorded at Sea-Tac Airport.

 

The abnormal warmth was caused by a persistent trough of low pressure off the West Coast which frequently pumped up warm air from lower latitudes into the Pacific Northwest. Much of the year was marked by persistent warmth and abnormally warm minimum temperatures as opposed to notable heat waves which served to make the overall warmth less noticeable than some previous warm years. The warm December was quite notable in that the month began with Arctic air over the region and ended with another round of chilly continental air that ended the month on a cold note. In between the two cold snaps the rest of the month was tremendously warm with temperatures approaching 70 degrees at one point. The warmth in October was most impressive with the monthly average of 58.0 crushing the previous benchmark of 55.8 set in 1987

 

Below are some stats from 2014. I've added pre-SEA records in red.

 

Annual average - 55.0 - previous record 54.4 set in 1995. 55.4 in 1940

 

October average - 58.0 - previous record 55.8 set in 1987. 57.5 in 1944

 

December average - 45.3 - previous record 45.2 set in 1969. 47.5 in 1939

 

September average 64.8 - exceeded only by 1967 with an average of 65.7. 64.0 in 1940

 

July average 69.2 - exceeded only by 2009 with an average of 69.5. 69.6 in 1941

 

August average - 69.2 - exceeded only by 1967 and 2013. 67.9 in 1897

 

In addition to all of those outstandingly warm months March and May also average much above normal values.

 

The good news for fans of cooler weather is the fact previous very warm years such as 1958, 1992, and 1995 invariably gave way to considerably cooler weather the following year.

For comparison purposes here is the top 5 warmest years in the pre-SEA era (1892-1947)

 

55.4 - 1940 (#5 at Portland)

55.2 - 1934 (warmest on record at Portland)

54.0 - 1947

54.0 - 1939 (#10 at Portland)

54.0 - 1926 (#2 at Portland)

 

Given the fact that 2014 in Portland barely bested 1940 by 0.1 degree and 1934 was much warmer than 2014 at Portland, I would posit that 1934 and 1940 were both warmer years than 2014 at Seattle as well.

 

It is clear that October was the most glaringly warm month (in terms of standard deviation) in the year...it beat the previous SEA record by over 2 deg and the previous Seattle record by 0.5 degree. At Portland the October value beat the previous record (back to 1872) by a full degree.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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The city location is a lot warmer than Sea-Tac though. Pretty hard to directly compare them. No doubt 1940 was an ugly warm year though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looking at several stations that have a period record going back at least to 1930 it appears 2014 wasn't the warmest year on record for most of WA. The heating effect of the third runway at SEA may have played a role.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The city location is a lot warmer than Sea-Tac though. Pretty hard to directly compare them. No doubt 1940 was an ugly warm year though.

Warmer lows and cooler highs at the downtown station due to proximity to Elliott Bay. I doubt a large deviation in the mean when considering warm Decembers (bigger difference would be seen comparing coldest Decembers). The warmest years compare favorably to the pre-PDX warm years at Portland which does suggest some validity.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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+7.8? Wow!

 

I can't wait to see the payback on this. If this ends up like the 1930s there will be some.

Not only that but I also had a -117" snowfall deficit for the Calendar year. At the lake we average around 140". I have only had 3" so far this winter. This drought/torch has crushed all other ones and is off the charts.

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Not only that but I also had a -117" snowfall deficit for the Calendar year. At the lake we average around 140". I have only had 3" so far this winter. This drought/torch has crushed all other ones and is off the charts.

Those are some stunning stats. Beyond belief in fact. Obviously we are hardly alone in our plight.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Those are some stunning stats. Beyond belief in fact. Obviously we are hardly alone in our plight.

Saw another stat today that was pretty mind blowing. Sacramento had 0 below freezing nights for the calendar year. They average 15 a year and this was the first time that they did not have a single one. 

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Saw another stat today that was pretty mind blowing. Sacramento had 0 below freezing nights for the calendar year. They average 15 a year and this was the first time that they did not have a single one. 

 

You sure? It looks like KSAC and KSMF both had a number of freezes this year. In January alone they both had a bunch

 

http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSAC/2014/1/2/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar

http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/ksmf/2014/1/2/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar

 

 

I did notice that KSAC just had their first freeze this winter yesterday, which is pretty late.

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You sure? It looks like KSAC and KSMF both had a number of freezes this year. In January alone they both had a bunch

 

http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSAC/2014/1/2/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar

http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/ksmf/2014/1/2/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar

 

 

I did notice that KSAC just had their first freeze this winter yesterday, which is pretty late.

 

 

 

"One pretty amazing statistic that I just encountered: Downtown Sacramento never fell below freezing during the entire calendar year of 2014 (though it did in the first day of 2015)! The Central Valley typically does get quite cold/icy on quite a few mornings each winter, so for the surface temperature to remain continuously above the freezing point for an entire year is truly extraordinary."

 

It was for the downtown location. I took this from the weatherwest site

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It was for the downtown location. I took this from the weatherwest site

 

I'm surprised downtown would average 15 sub-freezing lows/year. The airport, which seems to be in a much better cooling location, averages 18 (they had 11 in 2014).

 

The only other long term station I see for Sacramento averages just 8. And that's with averages back to 1877: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ca7633

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  • 3 weeks later...

Looks like Landsburg finished 2014 #4 behind 1940, 1934, and 1990.

 

At Clearbrook, another rural station near the Canadian border that has a pretty good station record, 2014 finished #4 behind 1958, 2004, and 1941.

2014 was the 10th warmest on record in BC as a whole. 

 

10931454_10152961463541628_8323215924057

It was also slightly wetter than normal...

 

10868244_10152961464951628_7160705928124

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