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1/11 - 1/12 Lower Lakes Snow Event

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#1
Tom

Posted 10 January 2015 - 01:58 PM

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Models have been trending a wave coming up from the south and clashing with an approaching cold front out of the north that looks to bring some "surprise" snows into N IL.  This system had eyes for C IL/N IN/S MI but now may spread some love a bit north.  Let's discuss.



#2
Tom

Posted 10 January 2015 - 02:04 PM

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18z PGFS came a bit north as well...



#3
Tom

Posted 10 January 2015 - 02:06 PM

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18z RGEM looks solid also....



#4
Niko

Posted 10 January 2015 - 02:08 PM

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Now, these are the type of systems that I like. Coming from the south with gulf moisture. Friend of mine from Chicago just told me that a few days ago they were forecasting no snow at all and now forecasters are saying that snow accumulations could become likely. Wow, how quickly weather changes.



#5
Money

Posted 10 January 2015 - 02:13 PM

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Final call for ORD: 2.6


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#6
Tony

Posted 10 January 2015 - 02:23 PM

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Very impressive moisture with this wave for sure and we won't have to deal with mixing issues this far north.

#7
MarcusBeier

Posted 10 January 2015 - 04:44 PM

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Hey Washington Township..you know im ready in Northville =)   The 2-3 inches of drifty, granular snow we got yesterday is beautiful, now we need depth.



#8
Seahawkfan

Posted 10 January 2015 - 05:04 PM

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Just checked the new GFS Shows 0.28 for my area Temps mid 20 How much snow is that? 



#9
Maxim

Posted 10 January 2015 - 05:33 PM

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ORD: 2.9"

MBY: 1.3"



#10
Tom

Posted 10 January 2015 - 05:35 PM

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Just checked the new GFS Shows 0.28 for my area Temps mid 20 How much snow is that? 

What city are you in??  IF you can, put it in your profile so ppl know where your posting from.  Thanks



#11
Geos

Posted 10 January 2015 - 05:50 PM

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Local forecast calling for 50% chance of snow tomorrow night. A few hours ago it was just a chance of flurries...


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#12
Tony

Posted 10 January 2015 - 06:46 PM

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NAM looking like 2"-4". Nice hit for Chicago

#13
Seahawkfan

Posted 10 January 2015 - 07:14 PM

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What city are you in??  IF you can, put it in your profile so ppl know where your posting from.  Thanks

Burlington IA



#14
Tom

Posted 10 January 2015 - 08:19 PM

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Burlington IA

Your right on the edge and may squeeze 2" out of this.

 

00z RGEM...I think ORD manages to get 2" as well, if some of that banding can sit around for a bit then maybe 3".



#15
Tom

Posted 10 January 2015 - 08:23 PM

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Seems like N Cook is where the razor sharp cut-off begins....



#16
Meichel

Posted 10 January 2015 - 08:27 PM

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Was hoping for another slight nudge N, but even the NAM backed off for me. Looks like maybe an inch or just a dusting this time.


On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.


#17
Seahawkfan

Posted 10 January 2015 - 08:53 PM

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Your right on the edge and may squeeze 2" out of this.

 

00z RGEM...I think ORD manages to get 2" as well, if some of that banding can sit around for a bit then maybe 3".

OK Thanks. Take what we can get Guess Two not bad since this pretty much come out of no where nice little surprise Snow



#18
Seahawkfan

Posted 10 January 2015 - 08:54 PM

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Now we just need a big storm 7 plus would be nice.



#19
Seahawkfan

Posted 10 January 2015 - 09:00 PM

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Another thing i"ve noticed the warm up keeps getting pushed back Now it's Monday before we nudge above freezing. It's only looks to last a couple of days before it turns cold gain.



#20
Geos

Posted 10 January 2015 - 09:01 PM

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GGEM is nudged to the north a bit.

 

Attached File  cmc_snow_acc_east_9.png   205.1KB   1 downloads


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#21
Tom

Posted 10 January 2015 - 10:33 PM

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00z Euro...came north a bit....closer look for Chicago area...



#22
Yerf

Posted 11 January 2015 - 06:14 AM

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Ice storm warning for the Indianapolis area. You do not see that issued often.



#23
Tony

Posted 11 January 2015 - 07:38 AM

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Not sure what to expect later today. Euro coming in farther north helps but still not convinced.

#24
Geos

Posted 11 January 2015 - 09:08 AM

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HRRR hinting at a mini band up this way later. Will see how that goes. Right now there's quite a bit of sun out.

 

Attached File  hrrr_t_precip_chicago_16.png   65.33KB   0 downloads


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#25
Tom

Posted 11 January 2015 - 09:35 AM

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16z HRRR still showing that band hitting the northern burbs as well...12z GGEM had the band north also...I think Geo's area may get 1-2" out of this actually.


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#26
Scott26

Posted 11 January 2015 - 10:21 AM

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16z HRRR still showing that band hitting the northern burbs as well...12z GGEM had the band north also...I think Geo's area may get 1-2" out of this actually.

Nice hit right over MBY. I find it interesting there is such a difference between the 4KM NAM and HRRR at this range. Where this band stalls is key for who will get the most. I would still favor city and south for this one, but we will see.



#27
Tom

Posted 11 January 2015 - 10:29 AM

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ABC 7's RPM Model came back north from last nights run...



#28
Geos

Posted 11 January 2015 - 10:49 AM

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ABC 7's RPM Model came back north from last nights run...

 

That cut off is really sharp... and close! haha


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#29
Tom

Posted 11 January 2015 - 11:40 AM

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Burlington IA

Are you seeing snow out by you yet???  Radar shows bands coming through your area.



#30
Seahawkfan

Posted 11 January 2015 - 12:02 PM

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So far it's been very light 



#31
shakjen

Posted 11 January 2015 - 12:35 PM

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Just started snowing here.

#32
Seahawkfan

Posted 11 January 2015 - 12:59 PM

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Light snow here now Hopefully it can pick up little Still fairly light snow 



#33
tim the weatherman

Posted 11 January 2015 - 01:28 PM

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the snowman has said on both his twitter and facebook pages that down state il to oh an ice storm is brewing so these areas will need to get their flaslights,candles and generators ready.



#34
Niko

Posted 11 January 2015 - 02:02 PM

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A swath of 2-4 inches is likely for my area. I am leaning towards 3". A little disappointed, too bad the upper trough coming down from Canada will push this storm from coming north. Lets see how it will pan out.



#35
Seahawkfan

Posted 11 January 2015 - 02:08 PM

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FXUS63 KDVN 112146
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
346 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2015

UPDATE TO KEEP ON TOP OF QUICKLY EVOLVING WEATHER. A LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET MIX PERSISTS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...WITH MAINLY SNOW
BETWEEN HIGHWAY 34 AND INTERSTATE 80. AN ENHANCED SNOW BAND HAS
DEVELOPED FROM JUST NORTH OF FAIRFIELD...THROUGH WASHINGTON TO
MUSCATINE. THIS BAND IS BEING MODELED REASONABLY WELL BY THE 20Z
HRRR AND THE 18Z WRF. HAVE INCREASED SNOW IN THIS AREA TO 1-2
INCHES. THIS AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING
AS THE COLDER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE FRONTOGENESIS
CRANKS UP. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS...POTENTIALLY 2-3 INCHES...NOW
EXPECTED FROM MT. PLEASANT AND BURLINGTON...THROUGH
WAPELLO...MONMOUTH...ALEDO...AND PRINCETON. AN ADVISORY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AS THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
MAX FRONTOGENESIS REGION TONIGHT.

&&

#36
Seahawkfan

Posted 11 January 2015 - 02:09 PM

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Little better now here It was 1,2 Now 2,3 baby steps Hopefully we can get 4 plus



#37
Tom

Posted 11 January 2015 - 02:11 PM

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Little better now here It was 1,2 Now 2,3 baby steps Hopefully we can get 4 plus

Nice to see the radar starting to fill in and light up to the SW.  Some nice returns that will eventually head NE all the way back from KC area.  Once the snow starts falling, looks like a good 6+ hours of snowfall.



#38
FV-Mike

Posted 11 January 2015 - 02:29 PM

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Coming down good. Good sized flakes

#39
Geos

Posted 11 January 2015 - 02:40 PM

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Just need another 25 miles north progression of that band to make it up here.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#40
earthandturf

Posted 11 January 2015 - 03:15 PM

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Any idea what to expect up around Crystal Lake?



#41
Seahawkfan

Posted 11 January 2015 - 03:21 PM

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About 10 mins heavy Snow 



#42
Geos

Posted 11 January 2015 - 03:32 PM

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Snow edge basically 2 miles down the road now. 

 

Thinking most of Lake County, northern Kane, and McHenry County back to the Quad Cities are going to cash in the most.

 

As of 5:50; first flakes falling here.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#43
Scott26

Posted 11 January 2015 - 04:00 PM

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I'm surprised the frontogenesis band is so far north. I'm getting some good rates here right now. It will be interesting to see how long it will take the band to sag back to the south.



#44
Meichel

Posted 11 January 2015 - 04:12 PM

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EarthandTurf at least 1.5". We've already gotten the call to start our lots at midnight.

 

3/8" of light/fluffy stuff already down IMBY.

 

30ยบ still.


On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.


#45
East Dubzz

Posted 11 January 2015 - 04:14 PM

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The snow made it to Rock Island. Lol. That drive in was a bit sketchy.

2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 13.00"

June rainfall total: 3.69"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.16" (4/28)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0


#46
East Dubzz

Posted 11 January 2015 - 04:14 PM

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There was nothing, then all of a sudden the roads got terrible

2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 13.00"

June rainfall total: 3.69"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.16" (4/28)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0


#47
shakjen

Posted 11 January 2015 - 04:15 PM

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Looks like the I-88 corridor is going to do better than the I-80.

#48
Geos

Posted 11 January 2015 - 04:23 PM

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Slowly building into a -SN.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#49
6789

Posted 11 January 2015 - 04:28 PM

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Getting hammered right now and it's back building all the way to Kansas! Have around an 1" down, same pathway for almost all the bands looking like I'll get a solid 3"

#50
Blugga

Posted 11 January 2015 - 04:29 PM

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Where did this baby come from. I assumed i was going to miss out based on LOT's forecast. Heavy snow band dumping snow over me. Have picked up about 0.9". Still coming down hard.