Meichel Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 I found this article at a favorite site of mine somewhat interesting, given the geographic spread of users here at the forum. Not necessarily weather science, per se, but this seems like the most relevant sub-forum to post it in. I believe it was Mark Twain who said, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics." Quote On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2015 Report Share Posted January 18, 2015 Very interesting study/article. Not surprised that the Rapid City and the northern Plains has unpredictable weather. Their temperature swings in particular are amazing! Surprise thunderstorms that roll off the mountains or surprise snowstorms that produce more than predicted is quite common there. Then they have the Chinook winds that can really warm them up in a hurry. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glacier Posted January 19, 2015 Report Share Posted January 19, 2015 Very interesting! Here are a few things that catch my eye.There's very little difference in precipitation predictability between the least predictable weather spot (Rapid City, SD) and the most predictable weather spot (Honolulu, HI). Fairbanks is tied with Grand Rapids has having the least predictable temperatures in the United States, but is one of the predictable places in the USA in terms of severe weather. Las Vegas has the most predictable precipitation while Houghton, Michigan has the least predictable precipitation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2015 Report Share Posted January 20, 2015 With regard to the first point above; Glacier. Some places are located in zones where precipitation patterns are pretty reliable. Being surrounded by water or in dry semi arid zones you usually do have fairly predictable weather systems. I know most of the rainfall for the high plains comes in winter and spring and in Hawaii I believe it's more spread out evenly across the whole year. Also, was not surprised at all that this area is challenging when trying to forecast temperatures. I would say that is definitely true in spring and most of summer. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glacier Posted January 20, 2015 Report Share Posted January 20, 2015 Instead of how dry or desert-like the place is, how predictable the precipitation is seems to be based upon how much the precipitation changes throughout the year. The areas of the country that see almost all of their precipitation during the winter and almost none in summer (namely the southwest) have very predictable weather patterns. By contrast, the areas in the northeast where all months pretty much have the same average have very little predictability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 26, 2015 Report Share Posted January 26, 2015 A quick glance of this article suggests the title to be highly deceptive. What they mean to say is which places have the most variable weather. They are comparing how much the temperature/precip deviates and not how predictable is it. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meichel Posted January 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2015 A quick glance of this article suggests the title to be highly deceptive. What they mean to say is which places have the most variable weather. They are comparing how much the temperature/precip deviates and not how predictable is it. That's one of the things I took away from it as well. It's all hindsight. If the only means for predicting weather available were averaging past observations, it would be true. But I doubt the actual forecasting is any more/less accurate (something this article completely fails to consider) in any given location. A man with one foot in a block of ice and the other foot in a fire is, on average, warm. Averages are just so, average. Quote On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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