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The why of where we are. ...


richard mann

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In line with how "Chris" has approached the idea of "Climate Change", i.e. the question of either whether or both "Global Warming" or "Cooling", where having initiated a thread about it, …
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/526-global-warming/  "Long Range Forecast and Climate Discussions".
 
And with my not having been seeing much really at all posted about just why, we here in the West are experiencing the types of weather that we have been this later fall and earlier winter certainly somewhat atypical, …
 
.. My main thought with having started this thread has been to solicit.. even elicit, impressions, as to whymore specificallywe might be where we are here in the Far Westboth north and southweatherwise.
 
Certainly touched on somewhat within the general threads for both the PNW and California, ideas posted to either of these threads focusing on this idea have been more sporadic at best. 
 
.. As I've suggested within the main general thread for the PNW, … With looking at things more linearly perhaps, i.e. what's going on more currently, set with and against what has been otherwise having lead up to this point, this idea's perhaps working to aide us in being better able to see what might take place from here where looking more forward, and if with certainly allowing for various different models output (projections.) where working to gage future potential, where focusing more on our own various impressions more basic input here, our effectively compiling a general resource of own more in one spot, a bit more seat-o-the-pants, i.e. working to make us a bit less reliant on model projections perhaps.
 
@ .. What have been your observations more noteworthy perhaps, connected to just why we are where we are at this point, both weather, and more immediately climate wise here in the Far West. ?
 
One main guide that I would like to suggest, at least more initially here, something that I don't find enough of elsewhere here in-forumin my view a plus toward the idea of promoting a better understanding of the weather, and so, even perhaps toward working to expand the membership rolls here at "The Weather Forums", …

.. All ideas presented where considering this theme, being able to be understood, with not much additional strain (?), by anyone interested in weather and climate, having been exposed to and so aware of the ideas concepts covered within a typical "Introduction to Weather", or more "weather and climate" type class or course. 
 
 Several years ago I was a T.A. in such a course for 2 years, and mark this level of understanding as a good mean where considering the idea of more general online presentation of ideas and thinking. Beyond this idea, if your observation involves something higher and more complex, your additionally, at least taking the responsibility to draw tangential bridges to whatever thinking more complex. 

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Perhaps working to draw out some impressions even if more general, .. "the what", perhaps made more clear. 
 
http://www.proxigee.com/1501212015z_nasa_globlir.jpg
 
.. "certainly somewhat atypical", this image here above looked at more singularly probably works to illustrate the idea of what's been happening more recently weatherwise here in the Far West, with its broader view of both further West more upstream, along together with Eastward more down. ...
 
More on the edge really where considering the idea of weather, set against climate more, again with this thread initiation, .. I had been seeking impressions from whomever, as to just "why", things have shaped up the way the have here in the greater Far West this early to early mid winter.

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I did a write-up in the Long Range / Climate Discussion regarding out atypical weather in recent years and posted it last night. I am thinking that there is a possibility that the intense industrial pollution from China in recent years may be influencing our weather pattern by helping to keep this ridge in place more often than normal and more details about the process can be found in my write-up.

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Alright. (So, if I may.) How about another tack taken here perhaps. ?

 Inclusive of the main timeframe looked at more in particularly, more back at the beginning of January, during which many people tuning in here had been participating in a discussion of a possible "Arctic Blast"or a least significant "retrograde" of more substantially cold air more westwardimpacting the PNW, ...
 
.. Here just below for general review, I've provided access to several different perspectives, more basic and serving as a broader documentation of the past fuller month of changes where considering what I've suggested above as having been weather "certainly somewhat atypical" for the Far West for this earlier winter timeframe. This where considering some various different main parameters, at narrower changing intervals, e.g. 12-hourly, 3-hourly, ect., compiled put together as more extended animated sequences.
 
Some, "Gif loops", and some uploaded to "YouTube". .This if with my having only begun this process more here within this post more in particular.

This all above, with my main thought here, together with intent if again to be more clear, having been to perhaps better entice some thinking as to just why we've been seeing what we have here in the West for the past month or so. .And then with this idea, perhaps some additional input to this thread.
 
.. More initially here below I've included an animation of images, 3-hourly where looking at the main IR parameter, where considering the main Western view.

141221 150121 Goes-W IR   (With checking this animation, uploaded to "YouTube", don't neglect the main adjustment features attached to whatever video.) .... With its "size" and type, this sequence has worked out to be a bit laborious for "YouTube" to handle. With a repeated play, and checking the main adjustment features attached to the video here, a good quality image will show up throughout its fuller length. ... Note more incidental. The images used here are in fact mis-labeled, "Goes-E". (Oh Well. .. happy "re-do".)

And then here next below, three different sequences, "gif loops" more, of the main upper-air levels states changing, depicted, more hemispheric: ... at the 850mb level, more actual "temperature", 500mb pressure height level, if only more indicative of temperature, and the 300mb pressure height, also only more representative of temperature, if with "Jet maximums" shown clearly, and so the more specific location/s of strongest pressure/s (colder air movement) more horizontal.

14122100z 15012200z nhem 850.gif  
14122100z 15012200z nhem 500.gif 
14122100z 15012200z nhem 300.gif
 
 
… As I've suggested here above, in addition to the review material included accessible here above, I'll be posting some additional, to posts further along over the next few days.

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Appreciate your post and response above Dan. 

 

Let me just go ahead and route to what you'd written posted to the "Long Range / Climate Discussion" sub-forum, along with to my own response to it there, here just below, …

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/793-is-chinas-pollution-altering-californias-climate/

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/793-is-chinas-pollution-altering-californias-climate/?p=64954

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(.. cross-referencing.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/755-january-2015-observations-for-the-pacific-northwest/?p=65537
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/755-january-2015-observations-for-the-pacific-northwest/?p=65546

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/755-january-2015-observations-for-the-pacific-northwest/?p=65555
 
.. Posts, nos. 2887, 2891 and 2897, respectively, tacked into the "General Discussion" thread for the PWN, of January, on the 24th.  The last post routed to here above in fact copied tack in here below in full, for more basic "isolation" of more specific ideas purposes perhaps. ...
 

Sure, what do you think is causing it? I've heard solar mainly. Atmospheric backlash from a previously -PDO dominated regime?

 
Sorry, simple typo, I'd meant to type "An[y thoughts" more, above. But it appears that you've answered this question to some extent here anyway. 
 
.. My thinking, in fact fairly far removed from what you've pointed toboth as having heard more and then what you have more here above otherwise, .. is that "mainly", it's been the focus / focusing, of and where looking at the main strongholds of more primary cold (i.e. cold mass more in general.) north. This, where looked at as they've shifted with and from where they had been where more initially more or less established, consolidated through higher latitudes north, this before and with this idea their having either whether or both, worked to hold on and establish themselves better over those spots, or either, have moved to locations more conducive; in either case these areas being / having been those from which main and more primary cold air mass, has moved more into the main mid-latitudes. 
 
.. In fact I've put this a slightly different way if where relating and connected more to main precip., over in the main "Mountain West" sub-forum. My post there accessible here following.  http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=65539
 
Although, as it relates to the PNW, along with the rest of the greater Far West, I may as well just repost the whole of that post here below. (WTh.) ... Italicized, for general differentiation sake.  The theme at the time again, having been main precip., this with "how much there to this point" having been asked, by "Dan The Weatherman". And responded to previous to my post, by yourself.  
 
My perspective, ... A more decent Nino would have generated plenty of main moisturemore obviously. But with its having "dwindled", along with the idea, otherwise and additionally, of there also not having been much cold at all more primary more upstreamto have offset whatever main moisture, … 
 
.. No "snow" (much less.), no rain. (Also, much less.)
 
 Why.  / Why the pattern, why the ridging. ? .. The main reason, factors then, the position/s of more main strong-holds this year, of main more primary cold through the higher latitudes, this set against more on the warm side, .. the more initially strong Nino's having dwindledand if from here, asking, Why did it. ?
 
.. And then, why had (or has.) cold more primary set up the way it has this winter. ?
 
One more element here of course. Just where has main and more primary cold set up, and or shifted.

And the answer here being, not very well more upstream, to the North, from more directly North, or more NNW, full the way through to more WNW. And in any direction looked at here, where extending it out to a fairly broad scope, even more full the way across the Pacific, more WNW with this idea.

.. Main idea here, nothing of more wealth and depth from more upstream: only weaker cold ultimatelywhere having moved more directly south, or more east from over or more fully across the Pacific, .. set with only a more half-way decent amount of main moisture.

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Basically holding place here. But certainly surprising that no one has had anything to often here. Intended originally to cover the first days of January through to the 21st or so, with perhaps going back to the 21st of Dec. winter solstice, perhaps even carrying over to this point more. 
 
Perhaps if not on suspension currently, "Phil" would have something to input here. Though also perhaps he hasn't, with his not having been able to reconcile or bridge the gap where considering the idea that I'd presented as a "guide" for input submitted here, to this thread; whatever inputs being … able to be understood with not much additional strain (?), by anyone interested in weather and climate, having been exposed to and so aware of the ideas concepts covered within a typical "Introduction to Weather" or more "weather and climate" type class or course. 

General conjecture, through whatever views perhaps a bit more informed, even creative, is what I'd been looking for. And still am.

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.. I may as well drop this in here, cross-refenced to. With its perhaps working to spark some amount interest more than the general theme to this thread has to this point. ....
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/177-california-weather-climate/?p=67791
 
If perhaps you might want to respond to it, just quote from where it is more and drop whatever in here.

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  • 2 weeks later...
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Cliff Mass's Blog post for the 10th February.

Why is the Northwest Warm and California Dry? Part 1.

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/02/why-is-northwest-warm-and-california.html

So what is going on this winter?

 

It is quite easy to explain the proximate cause of the warmth over the Northwest, the drought over California, and the cold/snow over the eastern U.S.. They are all caused by the same basic phenomenon:  a high amplitude upper level pattern with a persistent ridge over the West Coast and a trough over the eastern U.S. ...

 

... But what is the origin of this bizarre pattern of ridging in the west and troughing in the east? I will take that up in [my] next blog [entry]!

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The idea of "Blocking" as its relates to the "why" where looking at the general patterning this wintermore persistent.
 
My own views where looking at the idea of blocking more general. 
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/808-february-2015-pnw-discussion/?p=70009
 
.. Further on within this thread I will be talking about howas with the thinking of mine routed to here above, also my own—the / a general interplay of colder air's more basic cycling where looking at its both main movement together with distribution, both more latitudinal and more longitudinal, both more inner-seasonal, works to position main colder air mass on an ongoing basis, and so influence greater patterning.

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  • 1 month later...

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.. Expanding my original question asked more at the beginning of this thread, from "why" more where applied to  the more atypical weather that we'd been experiencing here in the greater Far West back in January, more to what we have more through to this point and looking back at the fuller past winter, ...
 
If where considered more from a California perspective, the article (or blog-post.) accessible here following, from "The California Blog", goes into this question to some extent in places. .. With scrolling down through this article, check mainly, the element "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, Redux".
 
"On the heels of warmest winter in California history, no sign of March Miracle this year."
 
http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/2995
 
.. Of more incidental note here, if you might perhaps be interested in submitting your own perspective or views more general in line with this basic question, please first check the basic guideline that I've suggested where considering the idea, italics text within the initial post to this thread above.

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