1/25 Great Lakes Clipper

[Tom]

I know, I know, I know...it's just a Clipper...but as sad as this Winter has been thus far, any snow that falls can put some ppl to work and bring some joy to the kiddos on a Sunday.  Models are converging on a Clipper originating near Manitoba/Saskatchewan provinces and swinging SE towards the Lakes.

 

We shall see if this system can be dubbed a "Manitoba Mawhler" or "Saskatchewan Screamer"....would be nice if this system can tap into more colder air and add some lake moisture into the mix.

[Tony]

12z CMC shows zippo here, has the low way north.

[Jaycee]

Hand to god, I'm glad I'm not dealing with this clipper. I'm so beyond miniscule snow at this point, I'd rather just have 65 and rain.

[jlp]

Hope it verifies! After all, clippers have brought most of our snow over the past couple years. At least in Milwaukee.

[Snowshoe]

I'll take the 18z NAM please.

 

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

[Tom]

06z NAM...

[Tom]

00z Euro is a little more south in the track and weaker.  It seems the NAM/GFS are stronger with this Clipper.

[Tony]

Both maps above show more snow north and lesser amounts south. Guessing this is due to ratios as it will not be your typical cold clipper especially the farther south you go. This so far looks like a fairly intense clipper so will be curious to see if it will continue or will it lose its intensity.

[Tom]

12z NAM...

[Tom]

Both maps above show more snow north and lesser amounts south. Guessing this is due to ratios as it will not be your typical cold clipper especially the farther south you go. This so far looks like a fairly intense clipper so will be curious to see if it will continue or will it lose its intensity.

Back on Halloween this was an intense Clipper and the track was back farther west and south, similar to what the 00z Euro is showing.  I think the models won't have a good idea on track until Saturday when it comes onshore.  It is still out in the north Pacific.  Like you said, models are juicing this Clipper up for sure.

[Maxim]

First call for MBY: DAB

[Tony]

First call for MBY: DAB

If you are purely basing it off an 84hr NAM run then you are correct. If you are in the bulls eye on an 84hr Nam run then it is pure fantasy and fun to look at otherwise anything else on this run is not even worth looking at. (Just my opinion of course  )

[Tony]

You guys might think I'm crazy but I think the best part of this clipper for our area on the western shores of LM will be the high potential for LE snows. The track, the 1030ish mb high to the north, and the long northeast fetch down the entire length of the lake (and maybe lake superior enhancement) could be a very interesting setup for our area.  I know LE snows of high intensity rarely come to fruition about these parts but this one for some reason has my interest more so then the system itself.

 

I'm not very well versed in LE snow so I would like to hear others input on this.....

[Tom]

You guys might think I'm crazy but I think the best part of this clipper for our area on the western shores of LM will be the high potential for LE snows. The track, the 1030ish mb high to the north, and the long northeast fetch down the entire length of the lake (and maybe lake superior enhancement) could be a very interesting setup for our area.  I know LE snows of high intensity rarely come to fruition about these parts but this one for some reason has my interest more so then the system itself.

 

I'm not very well versed in LE snow so I would like to hear others input on this.....

The GFS has been the only model (except maybe the Euro a couple days ago) which show 850's crashing as winds turn down the warm (relatively speaking) lake waters.  In this situation, the warm December we have had may actually end up being a bonus for increased chances of LES as we head into February if we can get systems to turn winds off the lake.

 

Check out how much water is 40-42F...

[gosaints]

euro is drier than a popcorn fart.  it can struggle in nw flow events but who knows

[Tom]

12z GFS...

[Tony]

^Maybe enough to cover up the grass

[Money]

Tom what does the 12z euro show ?

[BigDizBliz420]

Tom what does the 12z euro show ?

 

 

south, not good for wisconsin

[Tom]

12 Euro...

[GDR]

south, not good for wisconsin

not good at all

[Niko]

My area is in for several inches with this clipper!!

 

Plenty of snowcover currently on the ground. Not bad!

[Tom]

My area is in for several inches with this clipper!!

 

Plenty of snowcover currently on the ground. Not bad!

So far GFS has been consistent giving your area the most snowfall out of this...

[Niko]

So far GFS has been consistent giving your area the most snowfall out of this...

That looks sweet. That's 6"+ snowfall for my area. Bitter cold follows afterwards. My local weatherman just said to get out those shovels. He also mentioned that some spots could exceed half a foot under some intense banding.    

 

Also, he said there is a chance for more snow by Thursday of next week. We will see what happens.

[jaster220]

That looks sweet. That's 6"+ snowfall for my area. Bitter cold follows afterwards. My local weatherman just said to get out those shovels. He also mentioned that some spots could exceed half a foot under some intense banding.    

 

Also, he said there is a chance for more snow by Thursday of next week. We will see what happens.

 

On the southern edge of the good stuff again. Like yesterday's 1/2" vs. model maps showing 3-4", I smell another shafting with these marginal temps. These clippers like to hug the thermal boundary. They don't tug the cold air south, they correct north at the last minute to "find" the cold air it seems. Oh well, can't complain since I got my half-footer back on the 9/10th clipper and have had solid snow cover since the 5th. Which is more than a lot to our west have been able to say. Good Luck over there in SEMI.

[Niko]

On the southern edge of the good stuff again. Like yesterday's 1/2" vs. model maps showing 3-4", I smell another shafting with these marginal temps. These clippers like to hug the thermal boundary. They don't tug the cold air south, they correct north at the last minute to "find" the cold air it seems. Oh well, can't complain since I got my half-footer back on the 9/10th clipper and have had solid snow cover since the 5th. Which is more than a lot to our west have been able to say. Good Luck over there in SEMI.

Thanks Jaster220. Yes, compare to those people to our west who cannot even buy a flake, we are D**n lucky to be getting some good clippers our way, even if they are not big storm systems. This month I have done fairly well with snowfall and I'm still adding to my gauge. Did you hear about another potential snowfall for MI next Thursday? My local weatherman said earlier this evening that next week bears watching for more accumulating snowfall. 

Hopefully in February, we will get a few big ones from down south.

[Scott26]

There are definitely still major differences between the Euro and GFS at 500 mb. The Euro shows more of a closed low by 72 hours, but the GFS still looks a bit more strung out. I do believe that Wisconsin and Michigan is going to get the highest totals from this. The Euro is too weak on QPF like it usually is with these NW flow systems. I think once we get into hi-res model range we will see more pronounced mesoscale banding with possibly a bit over 6 inches in the heaviest hit areas. For the Chicago peeps I think 1-3 inches is a good estimate at this time...

[Geos]

Not biting on any solution until tomorrow night. If the system digs more, it will end up being south. Weaker wave life the GFS is showing, than NW WI to SE MI will be the focal point.

[Tom]

00z GFS def took a jog south this run...

[Money]

GGEM

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015012300/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png

[Geos]

Total moisture on the GFS.

 

[Money]

UKMET

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

[Tom]

Looks like the models are trending towards the track of the Euro...would be surprised if anything drastic changes for tonight's run for that model.

[Tom]

00z Euro pretty much stuck with the same track and showing a little more strength.  It also tugs more colder air into it for N IL/S WI.  Not as robust with precip as GFS/GGEM

[BigDizBliz420]

LOT says it is going west, so maybe that's good for Iowa?

[WildWisconsinWeather]

00z Euro pretty much stuck with the same track and showing a little more strength.  It also tugs more colder air into it for N IL/S WI.  Not as robust with precip as GFS/GGEM

 

You sure sugarcoated that run, looks less robust in terms of precip than 12z.

[BigDizBliz420]

euro looks like 1-2"

[gosaints]

euro dry as a bone

[BigDizBliz420]

the euro has been the best model this year, right?

 

I think this storm looks pretty dry

[Tom]

You sure sugarcoated that run, looks less robust in terms of precip than 12z.

Euro hasn't handled qpf totals all that well with Clippers.  Remember what it was showing for the early January clipper 3 days out.   Track has stayed consistent though and I like how this Clipper maintains it's strength as it zips on through.

 

Meantime, 06z GFS...