Tom Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 The first half of January began very promissing as many on this forum were able to tack onto their season snowfall totals. However, the second half has been lack luster until now. Global models are stepping in the right direction and starting to hone in on a possible major storm system to affect a large region of the central CONUS. Let's discuss the potential of this storm system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 GGEM looks very good for the majority of the sub-forum. Northern stream is stronger which produces widespread snows even in NE/IA/MN/WI etc before the main storm develops and phases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 GGEM looks very good for the majority of the sub-forum. Northern stream is stronger which produces widespread snows even in NE/IA/MN/WI etc before the main storm develops and phases. I am not going to get all too much invested in this until Friday. I see too much going wrong out here for snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 Tomorrow 0z runs we will be in NAM range already (within 84 hours) of at least being affected by the northern stream wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 Believe in the LRC, folks in the Plains shouldn't give up hope. I remember how sweet looking this system looked back on Dec 15th and the energy it had as it traversed the 4 corners region when I was in Arizona. Marry this energy with the jet stream and you have a major storm system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 Believe in the LRC, folks in the Plains shouldn't give up hope. I remember how sweet looking this system looked back on Dec 15th and the energy it had as it traversed the 4 corners region when I was in Arizona. Marry this energy with the jet stream and you have a major storm system.You dont think that temps will be too warm out here? NWS has us un the upper 30's on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 Just look what happened on the East Coast and how accurate the LRC has been with that system. Back on Dec 10th or so, there was a storm system that was cut-off along the east coast and didn't really produce that big a snow storm if I remember correctly. Now, use that assumption with this system and you can begin to figure out the potential with this storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSMWxObs Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 CAN 138-- 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 00Z GGEM was a nice hit for all of us. 6+ for parts of Iowa, N IL/S WI and 10+ for parts of Michigan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 That's widespread 6-12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 Talk about riding the edge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 It would be great to have a nice bowling ball system that can get everyone 6+. It's too early to get excited because a lot can change, but this one definitely has potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 The first half of January began very promissing as many on this forum were able to tack onto their season snowfall totals. However, the second half has been lack luster until now. Global models are stepping in the right direction and starting to hone in on a possible major storm system to affect a large region of the central CONUS. Let's discuss the potential of this storm system. Wow, even half of that would be our biggest storm this year lol. Still will probably remain pessimistic until nowcasting time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 How's EURO looking Tom? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 How's EURO looking Tom?Just got in from a late night gym session....here is the 00z Euro...loads up the Precip totals from the Plains to the Midwest with widespread 1.0" qpf totals...that would easily be 6-12"+ from Omaha to Chicago...a wet dream for those Nebraska folks! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 Southern fringe again. Ruh roh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 Can we please just freeze that Euro graphic and thaw it out again on Saturday? Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 Seems like the major models are getting a handle on the increased QPF. Will be interesting to see if the trend continues of increased Qpf. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 Wow, so all major models are onboard. Euro looks great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 6z GFS looks great but I dont have snow maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 Too warm and too far north on 6z. Been consistently on the southern fringe. Been through to many of those nailbiters to think this will be major. This looks to be your first real storm Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 Come north! Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm interested in this one now. Give it a few more days and I'll be all in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 this thing is still way out there. short waves not even developed much less sampled. long ways to go 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 it will trend weaker and south, i follow seasonal trends at this point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 NAM is trending south...bad sign from a model that loves to be amped Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 NAM is trending south...bad sign from a model that loves to be ampedI would tend to agree. At some point something will go against seasonal trends. Then every one will say see I told ya so, but in the end that trend has been very apparent this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 you can tell looking at 700 and 500 that the NAM will be south and progressed. Maybe good for OH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 you can tell looking at 700 and 500 that the NAM will be south and progressed. Maybe good for OH It actually doesn't look to be good for anyone. It was fun for the one run it lasted lol, but this thing will go AWOL I think like most of the other storms this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yup come Friday's run, this thing will be way south and weak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 LMAO.....people freaking out over the NAM at hr 84. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 LMAO.....people freaking out over the NAM at hr 84. At this point, I'm going to follow the model that shows the weakest/furthest south event, as that has been the trend most of the winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 LMAO.....people freaking out over the NAM at hr 84.I'm thinking the same thing. I mean I know this winter has sucked. But flipping out over the NAM at 84 hours? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 if you look at the 200/300 maps even on the GFS/Euro, you see how weak jet support is and this would favor south and progressive. i think the northern energy trends faster, which happens all winter, and u will see the GFS and Euro go south next run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 It is Wednesday. Holy Cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 It is Wednesday. Holy Cow only 3 days out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 LMAO.....people freaking out over the NAM at hr 84.Not freaking out at all, but we have seen how phasing has gone this winter... The freaking out will be if the seasonal trend wins out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 only 3 days outExactly, the NAM will most likely change on each run today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 Just look what happened on the East Coast and how accurate the LRC has been with that system. Back on Dec 10th or so, there was a storm system that was cut-off along the east coast and didn't really produce that big a snow storm if I remember correctly. Now, use that assumption with this system and you can begin to figure out the potential with this storm. Sucky part of this storm is it correlates to the storm in November that came out as an open wave. It gave us advisory type snows, which I would take. This year's LRC just isn't conductive to produce our large widespread lows for us to enjoy. Lets sit back, enjoy what we get this winter and wait till next year. (sorry that's my inner cub fan thinking for this winter.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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