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February 2015 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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It's hard to believe we are heading into the final stretch of meteorological winter.  Will February finally deliver some true winter storm systems?  Should we rely on the LRC pattern as we head into February instead of following the global models and their continued flip flopping in this difficult weather pattern that has evolved this season?

 

We will begin the coldest phase of the LRC over the first 3 weeks of this month and also the wettest part that had some interesting storm systems, especially over the Midwest/Lakes region.  I'm keep an eye out for another possible big system around Feb 7-9th according to the LRC (Christmas Eve storm).  Let's see if Ol' Man Winter can deliver some exciting weather for most of us on this forum.

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Another SSW event evolving both at 10mb & 30mb....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

 

Models picking up blocking this month more than any month thus far this winter season.  The blocking over the pole which the JMA and the analogs are suggesting is slowly coming into the playing field.

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Trips to the deep freeze should be brief.

I wouldn't say so, the coldest phase of the LRC is roughly 3 weeks long.  It happened in November, late December (in the Plains)/first 2 weeks of January....now we are about to enter that cycle again in February.  Look for sustained cold.  You can already see the GFS correcting the trough farther west each run into the Plains.  Euro/GFS ensembles already seeing the NW NAMER ridge Day 10-15/JMA Weeklies that came out today agree as well.

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I wouldn't say so, the coldest phase of the LRC is roughly 3 weeks long.  It happened in November, late December (in the Plains)/first 2 weeks of January....now we are about to enter that cycle again in February.  Look for sustained cold.  You can already see the GFS correcting the trough farther west each run into the Plains.  Euro/GFS ensembles already seeing the NW NAMER ridge Day 10-15/JMA Weeklies that came out today agree as well.

I am seeing an up and down pattern.  Agree to disagree.  

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LOT's take on the extended forecast

 

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AND
ACTIVE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW
ADDITIONAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WITH SNOW CHANCES AND REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL...IT APPEARS
THAT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF VERY COLD CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BE IN THE
WORKS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF A
SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA FROM THE HIGH LATITUDES OF
CANADA.

 

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The latest Euro Weeklies just came in and are showing one heckova cold month.  Major cold showing up mid month for a good stretch when alot of this nation will be in the "deep freeze".  It is matching up pretty well with the LRC's cold phase.  Notice that NW NAMER ridge and deep trough over the CONUS.  Should be an exciting month especially since the wettest part of the LRC comes during this month.

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It's amazing to see how much the Euro has been flipping back and forth in the 6-10 day range.  Overnight runs now bring sustained cold in the Midwest/Lakes region with multiple systems to monitor.  Also, I'm noticing the CFSv2 model is showing definitive signs of developing a -AO/-NAO this month which we have not seen all winter season long.  The analogs/SST's/JMA all suggest mid/late season blocking that will want to lock Feb-Apr.  I think we are in for some really exciting weather this month.

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Unbelievable run on the 12z Euro...snow chances every 2-3 days from the Plains/Midwest/Lakes through the extended.  Build that Glacier!

 

I informed you about a system that I'm keeping an eye out for the Feb 7-9th period, low and behold, the Euro is starting to trend to another possible big storm near the Lakes.

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Tom, we are mainly being missed by this current storm here in Central Nebraska, congrats to those east of us, but the 12Z GFS has me excited for Wed. night into Thursday.  Does that line up with the LRC?  I have not seen this on previous runs and it looks to really hit more of Nebraska with a good size storm, even though it is only 1 run.  Thanks for any thoughts and enjoy your storm, I hope ours is still coming in the future.


 


Probably an inch on the grass this morning and now some freezing mist with a temp around 32


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Tom, we are mainly being missed by this current storm here in Central Nebraska, congrats to those east of us, but the 12Z GFS has me excited for Wed. night into Thursday.  Does that line up with the LRC?  I have not seen this on previous runs and it looks to really hit more of Nebraska with a good size storm, even though it is only 1 run.  Thanks for any thoughts and enjoy your storm, I hope ours is still coming in the future.

 

Probably an inch on the grass this morning and now some freezing mist with a temp around 32

 

That is just a Clipper actually...not the system that I'm looking forward to between Feb 7-9th.  You guys may be close to benefiting from next weekends potential storm if it develops farther west.

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Thanks Tom. Local mets from Hastings and north Platte starting to mention accumulating snow alng a strong frontogeneis zone across central and southwest Nebraska Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

Here is the 18z GFS...getting snowier...

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D**n, we might have over 15" OTG here in Nebraska after that event.  Nice snowpack for here

 

As long as the snow stays around after Tuesday, forecast high of 41 for me. Will see how much that changes from now till then!!! Good to see snow again and my first warning in two years!!

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I think we are heading towards another repeat cold Feb/Mar.  Folks in the Plains may see bigger swings, very late Februay/March..but overall the U.S. is not going to see warmth as Blocking looks to develop.  The CFSv2 take on Feb/Mar/Apr....getting chillier each run...

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