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February 2015 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Gfs slams almost all of Nebraska with next weekends storm. Hits Missouri too but fizzles out in Iowa. Gem similar. Let's see what the euro does.

Some of the 00z Euro Ensembles looked amazing from the Plains to the Lakes.  What bothers me is the sky high AO that doesn't support a phasing system and more in line what the GFS/GGEM are showing.  Let's see if the Euro holds.

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The new JMA 3 Month Forecast was updated today.  Before we begin, let's see what the model saw back on Jan 16th for the month of Feb.  As you can see, the 500mb pattern had an Eastern CONUS storm track that really ended up being an East Coast favored storm track for the first part of Feb.  Signs are pointing that the central CONUS is now getting into the action as we close out the remainder of the month.  The 850's from the Rockies and points East have below normal anomalies but not terribly cold if you would take this map into consideration.  Having said that, we all know how cold it has been and will be getting as we move forward.

 

Fast forward to its new March forecast, you see a huge NW NAMER ridge and a 500mb pattern indicating an active storm track farther west from it's Feb forecast.  You can see the Pacific Jet pointing towards the west coast that should translate to storm systems hitting the Rockies/4 Corners region which should trigger an active southern branch.  Now, taking into account how cold the actual temps will turn out from the Midwest to the East this month...we can draw some conclusions as to how cold March may end up becoming from the Plains on East.  The March map shows much more area with below normal anomalies and may brew up some late season storm systems next month.  We see this also in the CFSv2 and JAMSTEC models as well.  I really think Winter is far from over for a lot of this nation.  I could see a pull back as we head into March as the warm part of the LRC begins, but we may develop more blocking that can shunt that down a bit.  Time will tell.

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Looks like the next 45 days or so is going to put us to sleep! Colder and drier. Not sure how it could be drier? Not good for farmers.

Mar-May looking very wet in the Plains/Midwest on the JMA/JAMSTEC/CFSv2.  I think this will be another "Garden of Eden" Summer for the central CONUS.

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This storm has WAA written all over it so definitely going to be some precip issues. There is a ton of moisture with this system and if we can only get more of it thrown into the cold sector then it could become interesting.

 

Not too concerned what the Euro is showing at this point as I don't like its performance this winter.

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Can't catch a break with these storms. East coast is just getting DESTROYED this year.

Skilling made an interesting point that of the 95 inches that Boston has received this year, 90 came in the last 3 weeks. Likewise Philadelphia and DC are running below normal. Shows you how quickly things can change

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12z Euro showing nada..basically a rain storm for southern Midwest....850's to warm down south...

Just wanted to mention that the bias the Euro has is hanging the energy back too long. It seems to do that quite a bit so I think once we get within 36hrs or so we will see a different look to the Euro runs. 

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