February 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Tom, I see you lurking.

 

Curious to know what your thoughts are so far with the 12z runs?

Lol, yes I am...This is a tricky one.  I don't see a mature SLP with this storm system.  Instead, I see a "sheared" wave developing.  Teleconnections don't support a phased system and more of a over-running event.  Could be some bad icing issues down in the Plains with enough low-level cold air in place over the deeper snow pack down south.  With a transitioning PNA, this system should track from the Plains/Southern Midwest/OV.  It's going to be a close call around here but I like the trend in the GFS.  With such a sky high AO during this event, I don't think suppression will be an issue.  This would have been a nice Pan Handle hook if everything worked out right.

[Tom]

12z Euro showing a high of +1F at ORD Thursday!  Getting a little colder each run, going to be close if we can stay sub-zero all day.  I don't think we have a deep enough snow pack to do it.

[Tony]

FWIW...Euro Ensemble Mean a lot farther NW than the operational. Most of the clusters in Indiana.

[Maxim]

12z GFS Mean if anyone is interested:

not happening

[Tony]

not happening

You might as well throw this into the not happening mix as well!

[Niko]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_02171948_hd32-1.jpg

 

Hmmm??!!!! Here we go again. An east coast storm or will it favor the Central Conus.

[FV-Mike]

LOT Afternoon AFD

 

ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BIT OF A COMPLEX SETUP WITH MODEL
VARIANCE REGARDING HANDLING MULTIPLE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES. SOME 12Z
GUIDANCE BROUGHT ACROSS LEAD NORTHERN STREAM WAVE/CLIPPER ON
FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE (IN FAR) NORTH POPS
WERE CONTINUED. GFS OPERATIONAL/GEFS AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE THEN
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM MIDLEVEL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DESPITE DRIER TREND TODAY
FROM OPERATIONAL ECMWF...OP GFS/GEFS MEAN AND INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND SOME INDIVIDIAL MEMBERS/ALL HAVE
TRACK MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW AREA WIDE. FOR NOW HAVE
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR HOW WELL VARIOUS SHORT WAVES
INTERACT/PHASE.

[Yerf]

I don't think temps will be an issue. Just hope the models start trending N

[Tom]

The trend on the GFS has been wetter/snowier each run from the southern Plains up towards the Lower Lakes/OV region.  Might as well start a thread for this one since there seems to be some model/ensemble consensus a system will hit the central CONUS.

[Tom]

CFSv2 seeing a frigid ending to this month near the Lakes and areas nearby.  Wouldn't be surprised if ORD makes a run to a Top 5 Coldest February and if we can get some more snow, Top 5 snowiest February.  #1 is 27.8" back in 1896.  Wouldn't take much to take the #1 spot a run for its Money, especially the way the GFS is trending in the longer range.

[Tom]

12z Euro Ensembles showing a sweet "Cutter" Look as we close out Feb and open up March....very cold/active looking pattern....has anyone noticed how the GFS has flipped colder in the longer range???

[Seahawkfan]

The g.f.s sure interesting I know it won't happen but it sure nice to look at dream.

[tbone8]

 

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

356 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015
 

INZ003>006-MIZ077>079-180500-

/O.NEW.KIWX.WS.A.0004.150218T1200Z-150220T0000Z/

LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-BERRIEN-CASS MI-

ST. JOSEPH MI-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...

MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...

NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...NILES...

BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...

MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON

356 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 /256 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015/
 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH

THURSDAY EVENING...
 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING

THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
 

 * 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.
 

 * WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO.
 

 * BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY.
 

IMPACTS...
 

 * TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED BY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED

   VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
 

 * VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO

   GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS MAY RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND LEAD

   TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

 

[Grizzcoat]

12z Euro Ensembles showing a sweet "Cutter" Look as we close out Feb and open up March....very cold/active looking pattern....has anyone noticed how the GFS has flipped colder in the longer range???

Yes I have noticed. DSM has a chance of cracking the top 10 coldest FEB's. Currently at 20.0F avg temp.  10th place is 16.8F in 1958.

[Maxim]

This doesn't look cold at all. Watch it show those deep blue anomalies around our area come tomorrow though.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20150217.201503.gif

[Tom]

This doesn't look cold at all. Watch it show those deep blue anomalies around our area come tomorrow though.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20150217.201503.gif

Have you been following this model over the last 10-15 days???  It has been trending much colder each week as we head closer towards March.  I suspect the heart of the cold in the Plains like we saw in November.  Check back to this model on Feb 28th and I can almost guarantee it will be colder throughout the Central CONUS.

[Tom]

Maxim, since we have the snow cover around...are you excited about breaking some record low temps???  Might as well put it to "use"!

[Niko]

I am forecasted to drop to -20F on Thursday night!! Holy Smokes. Could that be an old time record low temp?!

[Maxim]

Have you been following this model over the last 10-15 days???  It has been trending much colder each week as we head closer towards March.  I suspect the heart of the cold in the Plains like we saw in November.  Check back to this model on Feb 28th and I can almost guarantee it will be colder throughout the Central CONUS.

Yes it has been trending colder... until today, lol. I suspect it will continue to flip-flop around like it always does. No surprises there. I have to admit though, its overall performance has not been very good lately.

[Maxim]

Maxim, since we have the snow cover around...are you excited about breaking some record low temps???  Might as well put it to "use"!

Yeah, but it's too bad that a lot of it melted after those mild days earlier in the month. Would see sub-zero highs on Thursday without a problem if we still had a deep snowpack.

[Tom]

00z GFS with a similar system that rounds the base of the trough 4 days later that looks interesting.  Next 10 days def looking much more active and cold.  The back loaded snowy winter of 2014-15 continues...

[Grizzcoat]

00 GFS has near sub zero 24 hour period for DSM on the 27th. -20F for a low morning of 28th. Probably a little rich on the cold-- but last March 2nd the high was 2F in DSM-

FRI 12Z 27-FEB -22.4   -17.0    1035      90       8    0.00     541     515    FRI 18Z 27-FEB -20.0   -18.5    1039      84       8    0.00     541     513    SAT 00Z 28-FEB -22.1   -17.7    1039      90       8    0.00     542     513    SAT 12Z 28-FEB -28.9   -15.7    1042      94      12    0.00     545     514 

[tbone8]

FXUS63 KIWX 180450
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1150 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

 

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES TO WATCH HEADLINES THIS EVENING AS EVENT
STILL LOOKS TO UNFOLD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
TRANSITORY NATURE OF AN INTENSE PREDOMINANTLY SINGLE BAND OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY...FEEL WORTHWHILE TO GET A LOOK AT ALL 00Z HIRES
GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISIONS ON WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A COMPLEX EVENT FROM MANY ASPECTS. ARCTIC FRONT
TO BRING SOME INCREDIBLY COLD AIR DOWN ACROSS THE LAKE. SFC-700MB
DELTA T VALUES CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S WITH LAKE ENHANCED CAPE
SKYROCKETING TO OVER 1300 J/KG. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO OVER
15KFT WITH DEEP LAYER STRONG VERTICAL MOTION REACHING TO 700MB.
THIS CERTAINLY RAISES THE CHANCE FOR RARE LAKE EFFECT THUNDERSNOW
AND INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE A VERY LOW DGZ GIVEN EXTREME COLD AND DRY AIR...BUT
AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM...PRECONDITIONING FROM UPSTREAM LAKES AND
LONG FETCH WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE LIKELY TO OVERCOME THIS IN A
NARROW BAND. A TYPE VI EVENT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS WELL BUT
MESOLOW MAY COME ONSHORE MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND TRAVEL THROUGH
CENTRAL MI WED PER LATEST NAM12. THE INTENSE SINGLE BAND THEN TO
COME SOUTH INTO NW INDIANA AND FAR SW MICHIGAN. THIS LOOKS TO
TRANSFORM INTO MULTIBAND STRUCTURE TOMORROW EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND TYPE VI STRUCTURE COMES SOUTH LATE WED NIGHT INTO THUR.
THIS MESOLOW LOOKS TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THE
INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS TO LIKELY
ENHANCE MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE AND FOCUS A STRONG BAND INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH REACHES FAR
INLAND. TRYING TO FIT ALL THESE MOVING BANDS INTO WARNING AND
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE DIFFICULT.

[Tom]

FXUS63 KIWX 180450

AFDIWX

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

1150 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

 

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 855 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

 

NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES TO WATCH HEADLINES THIS EVENING AS EVENT

STILL LOOKS TO UNFOLD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL

TRANSITORY NATURE OF AN INTENSE PREDOMINANTLY SINGLE BAND OF SNOW

WEDNESDAY...FEEL WORTHWHILE TO GET A LOOK AT ALL 00Z HIRES

GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISIONS ON WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A COMPLEX EVENT FROM MANY ASPECTS. ARCTIC FRONT

TO BRING SOME INCREDIBLY COLD AIR DOWN ACROSS THE LAKE. SFC-700MB

DELTA T VALUES CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S WITH LAKE ENHANCED CAPE

SKYROCKETING TO OVER 1300 J/KG. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO OVER

15KFT WITH DEEP LAYER STRONG VERTICAL MOTION REACHING TO 700MB.

THIS CERTAINLY RAISES THE CHANCE FOR RARE LAKE EFFECT THUNDERSNOW

AND INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. LIMITING

FACTOR WILL BE A VERY LOW DGZ GIVEN EXTREME COLD AND DRY AIR...BUT

AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM...PRECONDITIONING FROM UPSTREAM LAKES AND

LONG FETCH WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE LIKELY TO OVERCOME THIS IN A

NARROW BAND. A TYPE VI EVENT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS WELL BUT

MESOLOW MAY COME ONSHORE MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND TRAVEL THROUGH

CENTRAL MI WED PER LATEST NAM12. THE INTENSE SINGLE BAND THEN TO

COME SOUTH INTO NW INDIANA AND FAR SW MICHIGAN. THIS LOOKS TO

TRANSFORM INTO MULTIBAND STRUCTURE TOMORROW EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER

TROUGH AND TYPE VI STRUCTURE COMES SOUTH LATE WED NIGHT INTO THUR.

THIS MESOLOW LOOKS TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THE

INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS TO LIKELY

ENHANCE MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE AND FOCUS A STRONG BAND INTO

NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH REACHES FAR

INLAND. TRYING TO FIT ALL THESE MOVING BANDS INTO WARNING AND

ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE DIFFICULT.

NW IN/SW MI is going through a "mini" Boston siege of snow over the past couple weeks.  It will be interesting to see how intense the snowfall rates end up being.  There is still a 40F pool of warm waters in S Lake Michigan that will certainly enhance the snow fall rates.

 

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif

[Tom]

00z Euro also starting to bring some nasty cold next Tue-Thu....a brief pull back late month, but Ensembles indicating the cold to begin to build in western Canada and bleed south, east of the Rockies.  This type of pattern would be excellent to brew up some more nice Cutters down the road.

[Tom]

Saw this post from JB:

 

Great Lakes Ice Coverage ahead of last year.  I'd prob guess we surpass last year's coverage by month's end.

[Maxim]

Saw this post from JB:

 

Great Lakes Ice Coverage ahead of last year.  I'd prob guess we surpass last year's coverage by month's end.

Hard to believe after the very mild December and only slightly cold January. This February is featuring a similar cold departure as last February though.

[Tom]

Hard to believe after the very mild December and only slightly cold January. This February is featuring a similar cold departure as last February though.

Keep in mind, the lake temp's back in 2013 were a lot warmer to begin the season than this year.  I believe this year, all of the lakes were below normal temps wise and this gave the lakes a head start along with the colder November.

 

I saw Skilling's midday show yesterday and he posted a graphic indicating that last February was running even colder than this year's.

[Tony]

12z CMC matches up nicely with the GFS long range.

[Tom]

Wow, the new February JAMSTEC run still looking very chilly for the Spring months and very wet for the central CONUS.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.MAM2015.1feb2015.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.MAM2015.1feb2015.gif

 

Looking ahead into the Summer and next Fall....still looks wet and below normal like last Summer...another "Garden of Eden" summer on tap.  During the warm cycles of the LRC I could see some sustained heat waves in the Plains/Midwest.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2015.1feb2015.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2015.1feb2015.gif

 

 

 

Looking out farther, the model see's even a stronger indication from January's outlook of a very warm NE Pacific hugging NW NAMER/Alaska!  Check out the classic tongue of cold waters from East Asia to just north of Hawaii.  This was a look in the legendary year's of the late 50's /70's.  Just hope the LRC sets up nice next winter.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2015.1feb2015.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2015.1feb2015.gif

 

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2015.1feb2015.gif

[Maxim]

I'm thinking a massive pattern change will occur around early March as we get into a -PNA, +EPO/+WPO, +AO, and +NAO regime. The EPO is progged neutral by early March, so is the WPO, but they're both on their way up into positive territory. If that happens, a complete reversal in ridge/trough placements may occur...

[Tom]

Boy, the 12z Euro has a frigid look next week Mon-Sat!  It's showing even more dangerous cold than this current arctic outbreak.  Lay down a deeper snow cover and this could get worse.

[Maxim]

The more I look at the long range models from now to the end of the month, the more I start to wonder if we might crack into the top 5 list of coldest Februaries.

[Tom]

12z JMA drops the 492 Thickness right over MKE/ORD next Tue/Wed...that's going to leave a mark!!!!

[Tom]

ORD topped out at 7F today, down to 5F currently...I think tomorrow it has a decent shot to stay at or below 0.  12z Euro has ORD at 0F for the high temp.

[tim the weatherman]

looked at the esrl website and the epo and wpo will flip coming mid next week so after that the warm and mild air is coming for how long.

[Geos]

Saw this post from JB:

 

Great Lakes Ice Coverage ahead of last year.  I'd prob guess we surpass last year's coverage by month's end.

 

Now that I wouldn't have guessed after the warm periods this winter!

Another spring and early summer filled with foggy days near the lake I'm betting.

 

Only 7° for a high today.

[Trinomial]

What was the lowest windchill reading this year at Ohare? Wondering if we get close to breaking that tonight?

[6789]

I have -12 for the low tonight and 2 for the high tomorrow followed by -13 Friday! Crazy temps. Thinking some schools will close but mine has said they are likely staying open.

[Tom]

CPS just closed schools for Chicago...temps are falling like a rock!