Jump to content

February 2015 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

My old stopping grounds and place I vacation to in the Arrowhead of MN had a high temp today of -11F. Going winter camping near there in mid March. The colder the better for moving in deep snow--- http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KCKC.html

  • Like 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wouldn't wind chills of -20 to -30 justify a WCW? LOT only has an advisory.

I'm confused as well.  Much of the LP of MI is under a WCW with a forecast of wind chills of -20 to -30 while here in SE WI we are expecting the same (-20 to -30 wind chills) and only have an advisory.  I wonder why there is such discrepancy?  Especially when the LP of MI and SE WI have similar climates.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm confused as well.  Much of the LP of MI is under a WCW with a forecast of wind chills of -20 to -30 while here in SE WI we are expecting the same (-20 to -30 wind chills) and only have an advisory.  I wonder why there is such discrepancy?  Especially when the LP of MI and SE WI have similar climates.

 

For a while it looked like they weren't even going to issue an advisory (they did at pretty much the last minute).  A bit behind the curve, I guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The new JMA Weeklies came in today and no changes over the coming week as all the models agree to a significantly cold week next week BUT, Week 2, the almighty SE Ridge comes into play.  Notice the model wants to sneak a trough on the West Coast and Ridging in the North Pacific which will continue to seed cold air into Canada.  The SE begins to warm up significantly pumping the SE ridge.  I think Week 2 we see a pull back from the extreme cold but still cold enough to support wintry precip in the central CONUS.  Opening week of March should be rather interesting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest CFSv2 for March...huge SE ridge in play...also took a look at East Asia's weather over the next 2 weeks and Japan is about to get bombarded with storm systems that have a "Cutter" look to it.  It suggests to me that we will see this storminess transpire over the central CONUS as we open up March.  Both GFS/EURO tank the PNA as we close out February.  The Euro model suggest the EPO touch neutral territory, then head back negative.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest CFSv2 for March...huge SE ridge in play...also took a look at East Asia's weather over the next 2 weeks and Japan is about to get bombarded with storm systems that have a "Cutter" look to it.  It suggests to me that we will see this storminess transpire over the central CONUS as we open up March.  Both GFS/EURO tank the PNA as we close out February.  The Euro model suggest the EPO touch neutral territory, then head back negative.

 

Looks good for potential cutters in Chicago-land. Not sure "avg temps" will get it done in March for me?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Next week shows for a big storm somewhere along the East Coast. Euro catches the phase and crushes everyone with a HECS now for 2 consecutive runs. Lets see if it continues. Even if you miss the phase, a 6-12"+ potential is still there.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So far this winter I have experienced only 1 big snowstorm in my area and 10 clippers, if not more. I'd say, half of those clippers were of nuisance type events,

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tonight's Euro Weeklies are showing a cold/stormier look from the Plains to the Lakes as we open March.  Both the Control/Ensemble showing a "Cutter" special.  Might be a couple systems to monitor during the opening days of March.  Coincidentally, they match up pretty well using the East Asian Theory. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Things are starting to look very snowy in the Plains as we close out February....both GFS/GGEM starting to hone in on a more active pattern over the coming days.

 

FWIW, 00z GFS back with a cross-polar flow to open up March and storminess.  Starting to look like a -EPO wants to form like the Euro has been showing.  Watch that -PNA work its magic later this month!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man, the CFSv2 is starting to look darn cold for March!  Those "off the chart" deep blues in southern Canada will eventually bleed south into the U.S.  Just keeps getting colder.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

local met posted maps for March and it showed a lot of precip for most of the Plains and actually a lot of the country, really looking like a SW flow set up. He also said it shows first half of month should be warmer than average and the second half colder than average.

I disagree with that actually. The first half should average colder than normal. Much of the CONUS will be "locked" in a mild pattern by mid March though. Of course, it's very far out, so take it with a grain of salt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tonight's Euro Weeklies are showing a cold/stormier look from the Plains to the Lakes as we open March.  Both the Control/Ensemble showing a "Cutter" special.  Might be a couple systems to monitor during the opening days of March.  Coincidentally, they match up pretty well using the East Asian Theory. 

 

It continues to seem like a mirage every time they start to indicate a SE Ridge forming, not buying into this trough breaking down to allow for a big storm until the models show it within 72 hours or so, appears even with the PNA going neutral and hopefully negative, we're still locked into a cold and primarily dry pattern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It continues to seem like a mirage every time they start to indicate a SE Ridge forming, not buying into this trough breaking down to allow for a big storm until the models show it within 72 hours or so, appears even with the PNA going neutral and hopefully negative, we're still locked into a cold and primarily dry pattern.

Models take a bit before the "see" the -PNA or pattern change.  I wouldn't be surprised that over the coming days you will start seeing many more "cutters" and the East Coast missing out on systems late month/early March.  Speaking of March, will it come in like a Lion or a Lamb this year???

 

I took a look at Gary Lezak's blog and the system this weekend correlates with the Nov 15-16th system.  Now, that would mean the pre-Thanksgiving storm should be coming up on the 28th/March 1st somewhere near our region.  Both GFS/EURO show a Gulf system coming out of the GOM around that time frame and heading NE.  06z GFS is now pulling it much farther off the East Coast, possibly starting the trend of seeing the -PNA.  This may be our next biggest threat down the road.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's going to be darn difficult to break out of a colder than normal pattern when North America will be seeded with some of the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere Week 1-2.  Both Euro/GFS Ensembles keep seeing the PV establish itself near Hudson Bay.  A pattern we have become used to over the last 10+ days.  

 

As we move closer to March, signs of Spring will begin to arise in the southern states and we will see the SE ridge develop.  This will become our "friend" down the road and hopefully brew some big dogs.  I'm "eye balling" the 28th of this month and opening days of March for the next storm threat.  Using the East Asian Theory, there is a pretty big ULL the develops NW of Japan in the coming couple days.  This would NOT suggest an East Coast storm.  Let's see how it evolves.  BTW, there are 3-4 big storms that hit Japan over the coming 2 weeks in the part of the world and they all have a "Cutter" look to them.  Very interesting late winter pattern setting up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the LRC is to be believed then there's no way in the world this area sees sustained cold into mid March. Just like it has taken models a while to pick up on cold phases vice versa can be true with warm phases. Probably two weeks left to reach climotology snowfall and I'm worried we won't even sniff it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the LRC is to be believed then there's no way in the world this area sees sustained cold into mid March. Just like it has taken models a while to pick up on cold phases vice versa can be true with warm phases. Probably two weeks left to reach climotology snowfall and I'm worried we won't even sniff it.

True, and I'm def paying attn to that.  However, Gary made some comments on how he didn't believe the North East would see such sustained cold/snow, like Boston did.  He felt there would be more transitioning phases of warm/cold cycles and that obviously didn't happen.  So it would be wise to wait and see how this evolves.  I agree, its gotta get "warmer" sometime soon, right??  When you look at the overall pattern in North America, it has been "seeded" with some of the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere.  Unlike December, when North America was "warmer" than the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, this is the type of stuff you just can't let go that easily.  Not only that, but the EPO is trending negative as we open March which will continue to pump the ridge into Alaska/NW NAMER...something the JMA/CFSv2/Ensembles are all agreeing to.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the LRC is to be believed then there's no way in the world this area sees sustained cold into mid March. Just like it has taken models a while to pick up on cold phases vice versa can be true with warm phases. Probably two weeks left to reach climotology snowfall and I'm worried we won't even sniff it.

For eye candy....

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...