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February 2015 Observations and Discussion

Tom

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in East of the Rockies

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Tonight's Euro Weekly Ensemble run is hands down one of the most cold/stormy runs I have seen thus far this season from the Plains to the Lakes.  It all starts the following week and doesn't let go through at least the first week in March (when the model stops).

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Tom
Tom

Gosh I hope something to this magnitude transpires....

Tom
Tom

I thought this was an amazing picture and a signature shot of what has been happening in New England.  Here is a back yard pic of Joe D' Aleo's back yard in southern New Hampshire.  That is a 5' fence

Tom
Tom

12z Euro Ensembles looking amazing from the Plains/Lakes over the next 2 weeks.  Good luck trying to run a snow storm into the kinda warmth the 12z Euro Ensembles are seeing along the East Coast.  The

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WildWisconsinWeather Newbie

WildWisconsinWeather

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18z WRF...for the Tue/Wed Clipper...what do you think guys, should I start a Thread combining this Clipper with the one Wed/Thu???

 

If this one fluffs up to two or three inches, MKE could surpass its February snow average in just three or four days, and we weren't even the epicenter of the weekend storm lol.

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jcwxguy Mentor

jcwxguy

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can you imagine?? .5 could be anywhere from 6-9" with good ratios. The snowpack here would be the deepest i've seen in lincoln. Hopefully WRF is onto something.

it would be awesome no doubt, but usually every time in  bulls-eye this far out isn't a good thing; especially if it's a narrow band of snow 

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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I wonder how much real estate we can cover with snow this month and how deep we can get it.  Currently, 43.4% of the lower 48 covered with snow with an avg depth of 3.8".

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201502/nsm_depth_2015020205_National.jpg

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Snowshoe Apprentice

Snowshoe

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This WWA isn't for a 4" or more storm anyway, just a quick hitting clipper. 

 

I know the WWA is for 2-3" and mainly because it occurs during the afternoon drive. Just venting my frustration is all. It's been a season of near misses.

 

On a positive note, i'm liking the setup in the next 7 days or so. NW flow setting up a nice baroclinic zone along with a steady supply of clippers. Someone in the upper Midwest should see a decent snow event this weekend.

 

NWS GRB AFD

FOR THE WEEKEND...A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP FROM THE
DAKOTAS INTO WI. MODELS STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME PINNING DOWN
WHEN/WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE...BUT ARE ALL POINTING TOWARD THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS THE BEST CHANCE AT A WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSS THE
REGION. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...SOMEWHERE NEAR IOWA/IL SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. UPPER JET DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE TO ASSIST IN
SYNOPTIC LIFT AS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE RRQ AND LFQ OF A COUPLE
JETS...BUT TIME/LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES CAN CHANGE AND ARE
HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC LIFT SHOULD
DEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AS WELL. WHERE ALL
THESE FEATURES COME TOGETHER...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...SO
WILL NOT RAISE POPS TO LIKELY JUST YET...BUT POPS WILL NEED TO BE
RAISED AS THIS EVENT BECOMES CLEARER.

WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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LOT bullish with the clipper today/tonight especially up by Geos. Anywhere from 1" south to 5" up by the border looks to be in play.

 

What model was showing that much. I heard 3" at most.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

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What model was showing that much. I heard 3" at most.

From LOT this morning AFD:

 

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO

SEE ISOLATED SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES IF THE BAND

DEVELOPS REACHES ITS APPARENT FULL POTENTIAL...BUT GOING TO BE TOO

CLOSE OF A CALL TO TELL IF IT IS EXTREME SOUTHERN WI OR FAR

NORTHERN IL UNDER THE GUN. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR NOW AND BRIEF DAY

SHIFT ABOUT CONCERNS AND TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS.

 

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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GGEM/EURO starting to converge on a significant Lakes event.  GFS playing catch up.  Might have to start a Thread for this system tomorrow.

 

Edit: Euro also keeping very cold winds off the lake for 24+ hours in WI, then eventually into NE IL.

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