February 2015 PNW Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I had about 4 inches in March 2012. Oregon outdid us on that one too. It has sucked for snow here since Jan 2012.

 

But Eugene had a cool 1" of slop in January 2012, so you definitely beat them on that. Though somehow they scored a low of 19 during that event. 

[HighlandExperience]

I had about 4 inches in March 2012. Oregon outdid us on that one too. It has sucked for snow here since Jan 2012.

 

January 2012 was the last really big snowstorm I enjoyed here in Western Washington. In my mind something like that would redeem this winter for me. 

[Brennan]

I can’t ******* believe the Seahawks lost the Superbowl. Christ almighty. I love Russell Wilson

[snow_wizard]

I can’t ******* believe the Seahawks lost the Superbowl. Christ almighty. I love Russell Wilson

That combined with this lame winter...

 

Pretty ironic New England won and now they are having an epic winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can’t ******* believe the Seahawks lost the Superbowl. Christ almighty. I love Russell Wilson

 

Brady is so much better looking.

[snow_wizard]

For the month or with the March 21st storm?

For the month. I think I had a little over an inch when the big one hit Oregon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That combined with this lame winter...

 

Pretty ironic New England won and now they are having an epic winter.

 

Red Sox are probably due for another world series....At least the Sonics are better than the Celtics....Oh wait...

[BLI snowman]

How far north into Washington did it go? I guess I just assumed that since PDX only got 0.6" with that, that is where the significant accumulations ended. Or as with most onshore flow type events PDX was probably just an island of mediocrity. 

 

My folks in the Vancouver area had about 3" with that one. One of the most significant late season snow events on record for that area.

 

That deformation zone stretched all the way up to Puyallup with wet accumulations, widespread 1-3" in SW WA. 

[HighlandExperience]

Brady is so much better looking.

 

Russell Wilson will go down in history as loved.

[BLI snowman]

I can’t ******* believe the Seahawks lost the Superbowl. Christ almighty. I love Russell Wilson

 

Still in shock?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Russell Wilson will go down in history as loved.

 

 

Is he a top 20 QB though??? Like right now?

 

I just remember he lost his last college game to my team. He lost likely the last significant NFL game of his career to my guy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My folks in the Vancouver area had about 3" with that one. One of the most significant late season snow events on record for that area.

 

That deformation zone stretched all the way up to Puyallup with wet accumulations, widespread 1-3" in SW WA. 

 

More impressive than I even realized! 

[HighlandExperience]

Is he a top 20 QB though??? Like right now?

 

I just remember he lost his last college game to my team. He lost likely the last significant NFL game of his career to my guy.

 

For only being in the NFL a couple of seasons he is well on his way to becoming an elite QB. 

 

One last thing, Wilson has slightly better stats in his first three seasons compared too Tom Brady. Basically he has a very bright future ahead of him, plus he is just a better human being IMO.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, but things also even out from season to season or decade to decade. When you look at the epic torches of the past we always get something very worthwhile to make up for it shortly thereafter and this torch (almost a year long now) has been about as epic as they come.

 

Good lord, someone got it right.

 

The alarmist crowd keeps saying it's been nothing but Bret Anderson going apeshit with his warm colored crayons all over the West for years and years.

[Front Ranger]

So the last couple falls when I brought up some unfavorable analogs like 1976-77 and 2002-03 based on the the existing conditions... it might have been a pretty good call?

 

And those types of winters can still happen?   Just want to make sure.    Because you sure spent a lot of energy convincing yourself that those winters can never be repeated.    WAY too much emotion makes for horrible forecasting.        

 

Last winter was massively better than both those winters. Yeah yeah, the Seattle area got mostly screwed for snow, but two Arctic outbreaks and one of the snowiest winters of the past 40 years for the Willamette Valley says it was in a much different league regionally than those two.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For only being in the NFL a couple of seasons he is well on his way to becoming an elite QB.

 

One last thing, Wilson has slightly better stats in his first three seasons compared too Tom Brady. Basically he has a very bright future ahead of him, plus he is just a better human being IMO.

I think they are both good people.

[snow_wizard]

Shockingly the 0z GFS ensemble isn't bad and the Canadian isn't either. Both strongly hint at an end to the endless NE Pacific trough later in the month. Too early to tell if we might be talking nothing more than cool WNW flow or something more serious at this point, but a change may very well be in the cards. Once again the 0z ECMWF is dangerously close to something big at day 10. That model has had a lot of false alarms lately though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last winter was massively better than both those winters. Yeah yeah, the Seattle area got mostly screwed for snow, but two Arctic outbreaks and one of the snowiest winters of the past 40 years for the Willamette Valley says it was in a much different league regionally than those two.

This winter is totally in that ballpark. But yeah last winter... no way.

[snow_wizard]

I think they are both good people.

It's pretty obvious why Seattle fans are so quick to say Brady is some kind of a bad person.

[HighlandExperience]

It's pretty obvious why Seattle fans are so quick to say Brady is some kind of a bad person.

 

I'm sure he is a decent human being. But leaving your pregnant significant other is a bit selfish IMO. We will never know the whole story because money keeps people silent. 

[Front Ranger]

It's pretty obvious why Seattle fans are so quick to say Brady is some kind of a bad person.

 

He gets way more snow?

[Front Ranger]

I'm sure he is a decent human being. But leaving your pregnant significant other is a bit selfish IMO. We will never know the whole story because money keeps people silent. 

 

A whole lot of child support going on there.

 

Until this last Super Bowl we could at least say karma was keeping him from a fourth ring, but no more.

[Front Ranger]

Shockingly the 0z GFS ensemble isn't bad and the Canadian isn't either. Both strongly hint at an end to the endless NE Pacific trough later in the month. Too early to tell if we might be talking nothing more than cool WNW flow or something more serious at this point, but a change may very well be in the cards. Once again the 0z ECMWF is dangerously close to something big at day 10. That model has had a lot of false alarms lately though.

 

I've noticed that, too. It's hinted at good things far more often than the other models most this winter it seems like, and sadly it's been off for the most part whenever it has.

[Jesse]

It disgusts me as well, but it's also just fascinating.

 

Snoqualmie Pass on the left and Boston on the right:

 

I really hope late February through March is better for the mountains. Couldn't possibly be worse . . .

 

But wouldn't it just be absolutely fascinating if it continued?

[snow_wizard]

The control model on the GFS ensemble has 850s dropping to -16.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I had about 4 inches in March 2012. Oregon outdid us on that one too. It has sucked for snow here since Jan 2012.

In my opinion there has been a major change in the overall weather pattern that started in the 2011-12 season that has led to all of this abnormal weather that the West has been experiencing, and it has not returned to a more traditional pattern since. The CA drought and the lack of cold air in your region are the result of this weird pattern.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Shockingly the 0z GFS ensemble isn't bad and the Canadian isn't either. Both strongly hint at an end to the endless NE Pacific trough later in the month. Too early to tell if we might be talking nothing more than cool WNW flow or something more serious at this point, but a change may very well be in the cards. Once again the 0z ECMWF is dangerously close to something big at day 10. That model has had a lot of false alarms lately though.

When you say NE Pacific trough, do you mean the trough that has been stuck over the Aleutians around 160W?

[TT-SEA]

He gets way more snow?

He has a $40 million mansion above Beverly Hills... he is not wasting time in snowy Boston when he does not have to be there!

 

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/09/15/article-2421239-1BD6FC67000005DC-989_634x422.jpg

[TT-SEA]

That combined with this lame winter...

 

Pretty ironic New England won and now they are having an epic winter.

 

 

Many people in New England feel like they are being severely punished... not rewarded.  

[TT-SEA]

Quite frankly I am sick to death of clouds. That didn't used to be the case, but now that is one of things I find most depressing about this climate. The East Coast would probably even be too cloudy for me at this point.

 

 

Strange that you rolled through horribly cloudy and crappy summers like 2010 and 2011... happy as could be and loving it.

 

And now after a significantly sunny couple of years (in all seasons) you are so tired of clouds?

 

Summer of 2013 was very sunny... last winter was decently sunny... spring of 2014 was the best in years... last summer and early fall were endlessly sunny... even November and December were quite sunny.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He has a $40 million mansion above Beverly Hills... he is not wasting time in snowy Boston when he does not have to be there!

 

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/09/15/article-2421239-1BD6FC67000005DC-989_634x422.jpg

He s a California kid.

[richard mann]

In my opinion there has been a major change in the overall weather pattern that started in the 2011-12 season that has led to all of this abnormal weather that the West has been experiencing, and it has not returned to a more traditional pattern since. The CA drought and the lack of cold air in your region are the result of this weird pattern.

 

Certainly a main theme of your's pointed to lately, .. Try this for a short "answer" as to why, Dan.

 

.... Main and more primary cold, working .. cyclically, more "multi-decadally" general period, timeframe wise, to establish itself better, north. ...

 

.. If, at this point (even more since 2011-12.) near to (the idea of) its working / having worked to consolidate better "north" through more extreme higher latitudes, more annually, .. and, with its having begun to do so at all back in 2007-8, more through to this point, ...

 

.. With still some, if more brief time, remaining until its having been more able to do so more solidly and successfully, through those main higher latitude sources areas / stronger holds, ...

 

.. And with, its not being / having been quite able to do so, ...... its having instead, "slipped" south, down and with having followed more strongly established main avenues, more / the most .. conducive to this idea, to both, inundate some main more cold prone areas, while at the same time also, ... "Block" the hell out of things more upstream, main and "broader" pattern wise. .... 

 

Short version. ... A lesser strong "hold", and so consolidation, of main and more primary cold north. And so, with its "slip" more south, its working to check ("block", "hold up".) whatever more "normal" (or typical.) type of patterning. ..... 

 

(Obscure. ?) .. Additional perspective here, .. all areas more equatorial, warming. While higher latitudes "work" to hold onto cold better. Main timeframe that I've pointed to above, a bit more expanded, maybe more 2006, through until this year, maybe next. .... (Typhoon, in February .. Far West.)  

 

— Basic idea, a multi-decal period length cycle, of greater, through lesser (less better.), cold storage. .. What's far-fetched about that. ?  Its, ...... more basically, contributing—in one way or another—to all of the other main "oscillations", more multi-decadal is scope.  "I'll call it ..... (?)", .... "RAMBO". 

 

(.. Just opening myself up to whatever "lines" of ridicule pondered here. Toward illustrating my, even if only more general conviction where looking at the idea.)

[Tyler Mode]

2.98″ of rain in the last 5 days. That’s plenty wet for me. I’m glad for a chance to dry out. I wouldn’t mind the rain if it all meant snow in the mountains. At least they were able to pick up a few inches before things torch up there the next several days.

[AlTahoe]

So the last couple falls when I brought up some unfavorable analogs like 1976-77 and 2002-03 based on the the existing conditions... it might have been a pretty good call?

 

And those types of winters can still happen?   Just want to make sure.    Because you sure spent a lot of energy convincing yourself that those winters can never be repeated.    WAY too much emotion makes for horrible forecasting.        

I saw the 1976-1977 Analog being thrown out there by some Tahoe area forecasters as well. I didn't want to believe that it could happen again so I ignored them. We are now at about 50% less snow then that season to date which is incredible. Also that season's biggest snow storm was in May!

Anyway I would say that using those two Analog years was a very good call even though I didn't want to see them :-)

[luminen]

oh man, last spring in Eugene was amazing! Everyone had really horrible allergies though but the weather made up for it. I will be surprised if 2015 has such a nice spring. 

 

 

Strange that you rolled through horribly cloudy and crappy summers like 2010 and 2011... happy as could be and loving it.

 

And now after a significantly sunny couple of years (in all seasons) you are so tired of clouds?

 

Summer of 2013 was very sunny... last winter was decently sunny... spring of 2014 was the best in years... last summer and early fall were endlessly sunny... even November and December were quite sunny.

[TT-SEA]

oh man, last spring in Eugene was amazing! Everyone had really horrible allergies though but the weather made up for it. I will be surprised if 2015 has such a nice spring. 

 

Don't be so sure... odds are in our favor for a warm spring.

[ShawniganLake]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/650x366_02101646_screen-shot-2015-02-10-at-11.46.00-am.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/650x366_02101647_screen-shot-2015-02-10-at-11.47.16-am.png

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/canada-spring-outlook-2015/42051138

[HighlandExperience]

Don't be so sure... odds are in our favor for a warm spring.

 

This year seems different. We might have a record hot summer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This year seems different. We might have a record hot summer.

Why not have 3 straight in a row.

[TT-SEA]

This year seems different. We might have a record hot summer.

 

We did not have that last year?

 

Essentially... conditions are very similar now to the spring of 2014.    I am guessing the results will be also be similar unless something shakes everything up in the next couple months.