February 2015 PNW Discussion

[TT-SEA]

Just playing devil's advocate here, but I like the call. 99 times out of a 100 there that play catches the GL defense stacking and at worse falls incomplete. If they complete it, everyone would be like "wow, what a gutsy call!"

 

 

Yeah... that is how Pete described it.

 

I hope this feeds their hunger for next year.

[BLI snowman]

Just playing devil's advocate here, but I like the call. 99 times out of a 100 there that play catches the GL defense stacking and at worse falls incomplete. If they complete it, everyone would be like "wow, what a gutsy call!"

 

Gutsy, sure. Incredibly reckless and stupid given the circumstances? Absolutely. I guess there's a fine line.

 

You have Lynch, you have two timeouts, and you have 3 plays to work with. It's totally common sense to run it in. They got cute and it cost them.

[TT-SEA]

Gutsy, sure. Incredibly reckless and stupid given the circumstances? Absolutely. I guess there's a fine line.

 

You have Lynch, you have two timeouts, and you have 3 plays to work with. It's totally common sense to run it in. They got cute and it cost them.

 

 

We had the clock totally in our favor.  They would have had no time left.    Just run it and win or lose with Lynch.

[BLI snowman]

We had the clock totally in our favor.  They would have had no time left.    Just run it and win or lose with Lynch.

 

Pretty much the worst case scenario there is a Lynch fumble in the end zone. Would've still been better, because at least it would have shown NFL level decision-making skills.

[Deweydog]

Gutsy, sure. Incredibly reckless and stupid given the circumstances? Absolutely. I guess there's a fine line.

 

You have Lynch, you have two timeouts, and you have 3 plays to work with. It's totally common sense to run it in. They got cute and it cost them.

Sometimes it's just not very fair to use results as a measure. Maybe they stack the gaps and 24 gets stuffed twice and they go to the outside and it falls incomplete on fourth down? More traditional and harder for the analysts to cut up, but same result. Live by the sword...

[TT-SEA]

Pretty much the worst case scenario there is a Lynch fumble in the end zone. Would've still been better, because at least it would have shown NFL level decision-making skills.

 

 

But the call at the end of the first half looks genius because it worked.    80 yards in 29 seconds and then instead of taking a gimme field goal they get a touchdown.

 

Live by the sword... die by the sword.

 

EDIT - I typed the last sentence before I saw Matt's post.

[BLI snowman]

But the call at the end of the first half looks genius because it worked.    80 yards in 29 seconds and then instead of taking a gimme field goal they get a touchdown.

 

Live by the sword... die by the sword.

 

EDIT - I typed the last sentence before I saw Matt's post.

 

It's somewhat comparable, but then you have to ask how it was advantageous at all for Seattle to gamble like that at the end of the 4th? What difference does it make there if they get a rushing touchdown or a passing touchdown? Obviously the former is way less risky, and either way it's 7 points.

 

You gamble at times, but you also have to maximize your scoring probabilities.

 

Sometimes it's just not very fair to use results as a measure. Maybe they stack the gaps and 24 gets stuffed twice and they go to the outside and it falls incomplete on fourth down? More traditional and harder for the analysts to cut up, but same result. Live by the sword...

 

In that case you at could at least credit NE's defense a little more readily. If they get a stop in that situation then you tip your cap and give them all the credit in the world. Hard to do that in this case. 

[Deweydog]

But the call at the end of the first half looks genius because it worked. 80 yards in 29 seconds and then instead of taking a gimme field goal they get a touchdown.

 

Live by the sword... die by the sword.

 

EDIT - I typed the last sentence before I saw Matt's post.

Exactly... The Seahawks played high risk/high reward all evening. Hard to imagine all the things that had to come together for them to even be in that position considering the previous six quarters. Without reckless abandonment, tonight's score would have been Patriots 34, Packers 23.

[Deweydog]

It's somewhat comparable, but then you have to ask how it was advantageous at all for Seattle to gamble like that at the end of the 4th? What difference does it make there if they get a rushing touchdown or a passing touchdown? Obviously the former is way less risky, and either way it's 7 points.

 

You gamble at times, but you also have to maximize your scoring probabilities.

 

 

In that case you at could at least credit NE's defense a little more readily. If they get a stop in that situation then you tip your cap and give them all the credit in the world. Hard to do that in this case.

There's a great case for the alternatives, no doubt. I just think the result clouds the ability to look at it objectively. It stung. I've never received so many indecipherable, profanity laden texts all at once. I feel really bad for those who are big fans. That was an indescribable range of emotions.

[Deweydog]

Worse is the fact NE gets a championship AND have been getting a bunch of cold snows!

[BLI snowman]

There's a great case for the alternatives, no doubt. I just think the result clouds the ability to look at it objectively. It stung. I've never received so many indecipherable, profanity laden texts all at once. I feel really bad for those who are big fans. That was an indescribable range of emotions.

 

Yeah, one of the craziest finishes you'll ever see. I'm actually glad to have watched the whole game, but it was a definite case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Cruel irony is that Kearse's one-in-a-bajillion play at the end there will probably eternally be overlooked.

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully they were able to plow away all their snow in Boston to make the victory parade manageable.  

[Deweydog]

Yeah, one of the craziest finishes you'll ever see. I'm actually glad to have watched the whole game, but it was a definite case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Cruel irony is that Kearse's one-in-a-bajillion play at the end there will probably eternally be overlooked.

The game really changed on the mid range deep ball 15 dropped on third down late in the 3rd quarter. Wilson couldn't have lofted it any better. But yeah, you had a destiny feeling when he "caught" that.

[BLI snowman]

Next year. It'll be a good year for winter weather and Northwest football.

 

The game was definitely more entertaining than our winter thus far.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like 8-12 inches of snow in Boston tomorrow. 

 

I am really worried about the Patriots getting home.    

 

18 and sunny on Tuesday there... with about 3 feet of snow on the ground.    Yuck.

[snow_wizard]

No change on the GFS in the believable range.

[Jesse]

Next year. It'll be a good year for winter weather and Northwest football.

 

Or it won't. Predicting the future is a *****.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like 8-12 inches of snow in Boston tomorrow. 

 

I am really worried about the Patriots getting home.    

 

18 and sunny on Tuesday there... with about 3 feet of snow on the ground.    Yuck.

They're getting all the glory right now.

[snow_wizard]

Or it won't. Predicting the future is a *****.

I'm not at all confident about next winter right now. As expected another warm down welling Kelvin wave has commenced in the tropical Pacific.

 

I have accepted our fate this winter, but the thought of a repeat next winter makes me seriously ill.

[stuffradio]

I'm not at all confident about next winter right now. As expected another warm down welling Kelvin wave has commenced in the tropical Pacific.

 

I have accepted our fate this winter, but the thought of a repeat next winter makes me seriously ill.

Don't think about next winter until we're 1 month out. Problem solved! It's about as reliable as the climate models that were used to predict Ice free summers in 2013.

[stuffradio]

richard might get his wish with the big rains on its way to California.

[snow_wizard]

Don't think about next winter until we're 1 month out. Problem solved! It's about as reliable as the climate models that were used to predict Ice free summers in 2013.

If we have a Nino next winter the chances are very high it will be a torch. Second year Ninos are about the surest sign you can have for a warm winter. We'll probably know by summer what the ENSO will be next winter. It would also be nice to actually have a few below normal months before next winter too.

[snow_wizard]

richard might get his wish with the big rains on its way to California.

We'll see if it actually happens or not.

[stuffradio]

If we have a Nino next winter the chances are very high it will be a torch. Second year Ninos are about the surest sign you can have for a warm winter. We'll probably know by summer what the ENSO will be next winter. It would also be nice to actually have a few below normal months before next winter too.

I'm not saying it's not possible that next Winter is the same, just it's better for your stress to not worry about it until very close to next winter.

[snow_wizard]

I'm not saying it's not possible that next Winter is the same, just it's better for your stress to not worry about it until very close to next winter.

Once we get past winter I will forget about it for a while.

[Black Hole]

Yup, about the earliest that kind of thing can happen near sea-level.

 

Obviously a different story for the Cascade Foothills and warmth-favored spots on the east side (Pendleton, Walla Walla).

You probably already know this but I will just hit this for anybody who doesn't know and is curious.

 

Basically what you run into is a battle between the ability to mix the warmer air down and having the warmer air aloft present in the first place. The warmer the air aloft gets, the closer that usually means you are to the core of the ridging, and thus the more likely you are to be under strong subsidence. At that point you of course aren't seeing much mixing with the strong high pressure present and not enough surface heating to mix out with the warmer air above. In that regard our warmest surface temperatures this time of year come in SW flow because even though the upper air isn't quite as warm it typically is supportive of much more mixing to occur. This happens because the airmass is more convective, there are stronger winds, and it is usually associated with lower pressure and frontal systems.  

[Jesse]

If we have a Nino next winter the chances are very high it will be a torch. Second year Ninos are about the surest sign you can have for a warm winter. We'll probably know by summer what the ENSO will be next winter. It would also be nice to actually have a few below normal months before next winter too.

 

That sounds like some sort of insane impossibility right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've been a huge Brady fan since the tuck rule game. Tonight's game was SWEET!

 

The only Washington teams I root for are the Mariners and the Cougs. Oh, and of course the ghost of the Sonics.

[TT-SEA]

I've been a huge Brady fan since the tuck rule game. Tonight's game was SWEET!

 

The only Washington teams I root for are the Mariners and the Cougs. Oh, and of course the ghost of the Sonics.

 

Nobody outside of New England is a Brady fan.   Figures since you are just a contrarian for fun.

[snow_wizard]

I've been a huge Brady fan since the tuck rule game. Tonight's game was SWEET!

 

The only Washington teams I root for are the Mariners and the Cougs. Oh, and of course the ghost of the Sonics.

I will say Brady was quite impressive when he got in the groove today. He just couldn't miss for a while there.

[stuffradio]

Go Whitecaps go (Not Seattle Sounders)

[Jesse]

I can't believe how mild late next week into the weekend is looking. Lows around 50 and highs near 60 in spots is looking like a decent bet on a few of those days. It just never ends. We have seen an historically significant period of torching at some point every month since July now.

[Deweydog]

I will say Brady was quite impressive when he got in the groove today. He just couldn't miss for a while there.

He imposed his will during all but the 3rd quarter. Wilson was equally impressive but ultimately another very slow start finally did them in.

[stuffradio]

  RyanMaue

Can't ask for better setup for enormous rainfall totals over NorCal & now linto Bay Area in 5+ days #pineapples http://t.co/cs1vT9MDIA

2015-02-01, 10:43 PM

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/562139248975818753

[ShawniganLake]

Nobody outside of New England is a Brady fan.   Figures since you are just a contrarian for fun.

Brady and a Patriots fan here too!

[stuffradio]

This winter might actually be worse than 2004-5. We had about an inch more of Snow in Nov/Dec in 2004 than in 2014, and Jan 2005 we had roughly 6-7" of snow. We even had approx 1-2" Feb 2005.

[ShawniganLake]

This winter might actually be worse than 2004-5. We had about an inch more of Snow in Nov/Dec in 2004 than in 2014, and Jan 2005 we had roughly 6-7" of snow. We even had approx 1-2" Feb 2005.

For the lowlands of the BC south coast, there is no comparison.  January 2005 made that winter, especially on the island. The only winter that might end up being worse in recent history would be 91-92.

[BLI snowman]

For the lowlands of the BC south coast, there is no comparison.  January 2005 made that winter, especially on the island. The only winter that might end up being worse in recent history would be 91-92.

 

2012-13 was pretty close for us here, but I saw snow falling a few more times that winter. I know B.C. had a bit more snow, too.

 

2004-05 was pretty decent for northern WA and B.C. Long snowcover period.

[snow_wizard]

This winter might actually be worse than 2004-5. We had about an inch more of Snow in Nov/Dec in 2004 than in 2014, and Jan 2005 we had roughly 6-7" of snow. We even had approx 1-2" Feb 2005.

You got hit nicely in Jan 2005. No comparison to this piece of .

[snow_wizard]

I can't believe how mild late next week into the weekend is looking. Lows around 50 and highs near 60 in spots is looking like a decent bet on a few of those days. It just never ends. We have seen an historically significant period of torching at some point every month since July now.

Really no question the only match now is the early 1940s. The ECMWF is horrible.

 

Hard to imagine that Hitler was at the height of his power the last time it torched this bad.