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2/4 - 2/5 Clipper System

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#1
Tom

Posted 02 February 2015 - 06:31 PM

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It's not often the Plains get a "Clipper" type system.  Nonetheless, 00z NAM advertising some intense banding and up to 2"/hr snowfall rates in C NE.  Let's discuss.



#2
clintbeed1993

Posted 02 February 2015 - 06:38 PM

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It's not often the Plains get a "Clipper" type system.  Nonetheless, 00z NAM advertising some intense banding and up to 2"/hr snowfall rates in C NE.  Let's discuss.

 

Sometimes these strong cold fronts can produce some very intense banding where the low level jet comes up.  Right along Interstate 80 looks like the best place to be for this one, which happens to be where I'm at.

 

It is pretty amazing though.  You are right Tom, Nebraska usually doesn't get much from clipper type events.  This one actually looks to have decent moisture to work with and ratios should be around 15:1.



#3
mlgamer

Posted 02 February 2015 - 06:42 PM

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The 00z NAM snow map above sorta shows it (but 57 hrs out shows it better) how the snow tracks this winter absolutely despise the I-70 corridor through northeast KS on into MO.  Snows tracks are north or south or east or in this case simply skip over the area along the interstate. It gets quite comical looking at the models...  :D ;)



#4
winterfreak

Posted 02 February 2015 - 06:42 PM

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NAM is a complete whiff lol.

#5
gabel23

Posted 02 February 2015 - 06:46 PM

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This would be a solid clipper if it pans out.  I can't recall ever getting much more than 2" of snow from a clipper. Hoping this a system that produces 3-6" along I-80 and north/south of it by 50 miles. Going to be an extremely tight gradient for snowfall on this clipper it looks like. If anything hopefully this thing gets juiced up as we approach the event. 



#6
Tom

Posted 02 February 2015 - 06:47 PM

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00z NAM has temps near 20F and falling into upper 10's during this event with a little bit of wind.  Should be some fun times out there in the open rural areas of NE.  Very high snow ratios with this.



#7
jcwxguy

Posted 02 February 2015 - 06:48 PM

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zoomed in map from above, plus farther out in time

 

00znam_zpsmxjgtugg.png



#8
gabel23

Posted 02 February 2015 - 06:50 PM

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Early snow fall projections from OAX and Hastings NWS. 

 

 

Attached Files



#9
Tom

Posted 02 February 2015 - 06:51 PM

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Here was the 18z RGEM...


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#10
pack402

Posted 02 February 2015 - 06:54 PM

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Really hope Omaha can find its way under that heavy band. Even a slight shift in the track will dramatically impact totals. Hopefully the gfs nudges towards a "NAM like" solution
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#11
NEJeremy

Posted 02 February 2015 - 07:01 PM

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Across Nebraska, GFS is way further west and south, NAM is in the middle, and the 12Z Euro was furthest north and east. Anyone have the snowfall for this system only from the Euro?

Hastings AFD said 30-40 mph winds on Wed afternoon behind the snow.

Looks close for Omaha, would feel better if the GFS wasn't so far west since the other models could pull that way too. Such a narrow band! Right now I have 1-3" and 80% chance in my grid



#12
CentralNebWeather

Posted 02 February 2015 - 07:17 PM

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Didn't have school today, have it tomorrow, then we will see on Wednesday morning when this moves in. Not used to clippers here but if we get 40 mph gusts with 6 inches of snow it will be wild. Already nice drifts here.

#13
CentralNebWeather

Posted 02 February 2015 - 07:50 PM

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Oz gfs puts me @ 6-7 inches. I would lock that amount in if I could. Wonder about advisories being issued tomorrow? Winter storm watch possibly? Any thoughts?

#14
Illinois_WX

Posted 02 February 2015 - 07:53 PM

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Oz gfs puts me @ 6-7 inches. I would lock that amount in if I could. Wonder about advisories being issued tomorrow? Winter storm watch possibly? Any thoughts?


Was jist about to point out that you're in the bullseye on the GFS. I think lincoln can just possibly get in on the heavy action, just need a 20 mile shift north from the GFS. Man, this band is going to be wayy to narrow for me. It's like omaha and lincoln couldn't possibly both do good with it it's that narrow. But man, whoever gets under the heaviest is going to have the best snowpack since 2009

'18-'19 DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SNOWFALL TOTAL: ~20" (as of 02/05/19) 

 

 

 

 

 


#15
Geos

Posted 02 February 2015 - 07:56 PM

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Was having some fun with my new Google Earth Pro. Decided to overlay the 0z NAM map on Nebraska to give the Plains members an idea where this stronger Clipper is currently forecasted to go.

 

Attached File  NE snow 4-5.jpg   112.79KB   1 downloads

 

 


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#16
Illinois_WX

Posted 02 February 2015 - 08:22 PM

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Was having some fun with my new Google Earth Pro. Decided to overlay the 0z NAM map on Nebraska to give the Plains members an idea where this stronger Clipper is currently forecasted to go.
 
attachicon.gifNE snow 4-5.jpg

Nice Geos! That's actually pretty sick. I might try and download that! Be a lot easier to pinpoint exactly where the snow falls. Wxcaster showing an 8-10" blob with the NAM. I'm not jumping the gun, nor am I excited just yet. If that happened though, would be a heck of a clipper, haven't had one of those drop anything near these projected totals since 2011. 
 
 
EDIT: Can't believe I haven't been able to figure this out, but how do you attach saved pictures from your desktop?!


'18-'19 DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SNOWFALL TOTAL: ~20" (as of 02/05/19) 

 

 

 

 

 


#17
gabel23

Posted 02 February 2015 - 08:42 PM

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Nice Geos! That's actually pretty sick. I might try and download that! Be a lot easier to pinpoint exactly where the snow falls. Wxcaster showing an 8-10" blob with the NAM. I'm not jumping the gun, nor am I excited just yet. If that happened though, would be a heck of a clipper, haven't had one of those drop anything near these projected totals since 2011. 
 
 
EDIT: Can't believe I haven't been able to figure this out, but how do you attach saved pictures from your desktop?!


Click on more reply options next to post. You will be able to attach a file then. I would be stoked to get two inches from this, I hope this thing juices up, sometimes these clippers have a tendency of getting wetter as the event nears.


Was having some fun with my new Google Earth Pro. Decided to overlay the 0z NAM map on Nebraska to give the Plains members an idea where this stronger Clipper is currently forecasted to go.
 
attachicon.gifNE snow 4-5.jpg


This is sweet geo! Do this more often please!
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#18
Illinois_WX

Posted 02 February 2015 - 08:44 PM

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Thanks Gabel!!!! Couldn't figure that out for the longest time. I think you will easily see 2" from this. Always awesome to get some light fluffly snow to make everything look fresh. The NAM is wicked with this:

Attached Files


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'18-'19 DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SNOWFALL TOTAL: ~20" (as of 02/05/19) 

 

 

 

 

 


#19
Snowlover76

Posted 02 February 2015 - 08:58 PM

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please oh please let the NAM be right for once. 



#20
Tom

Posted 02 February 2015 - 09:15 PM

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00z RGEM staying consistent....



#21
Illinois_WX

Posted 02 February 2015 - 09:43 PM

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@Tom and Geos. Just wanted to say thanks for posting right now. This storm doesn't even affect you guys and you're still updating us with information. you guys are awesome. Plus, rgem gives us .3", which could be around 6". Winter storm watches could be issued around here I'm thinking!
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'18-'19 DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SNOWFALL TOTAL: ~20" (as of 02/05/19) 

 

 

 

 

 


#22
Tom

Posted 02 February 2015 - 10:00 PM

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@Tom and Geos. Just wanted to say thanks for posting right now. This storm doesn't even affect you guys and you're still updating us with information. you guys are awesome. Plus, rgem gives us .3", which could be around 6". Winter storm watches could be issued around here I'm thinking!

My pleasure.  I'm just glad the morale in the Plains has gotten a lot better after seeing a Big snow.  Some of you will have a solid 10-15" snow base!  

 

As for any Watches being issued, I think most offices are waiting for the Euro to come in.



#23
Tom

Posted 02 February 2015 - 10:01 PM

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FYI, 00z Euro coming in juicy...a tad north compared to the other models...



#24
Tom

Posted 02 February 2015 - 10:04 PM

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00z Euro...kinda looses some steam as it heads east...I'd pay attn to the high rez models.  To see the Euro come in wetter in NE tells me somebody is going to cash in on some hefty totals.



#25
Snowlover76

Posted 02 February 2015 - 10:29 PM

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The Euro has also been pretty far off its game as of late, so its best to keep that in mind when you are using it in a forecast.

#26
Seahawkfan

Posted 03 February 2015 - 04:16 AM

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The 6Z. has .11 Wednesday Temps middle teens. Not sure of the Snow ratios but should be good for 2,3 inches.

#27
dubuque473

Posted 03 February 2015 - 06:34 AM

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Got almost 4 out of our last clipper so hoping to squeeze 2 out of this one..

Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter

 

78.1"  Total snowfall

February Snowfall 32.5"

City salt usage  : 12,211 tons

Days of measurable snow  : 40


#28
Snowlover76

Posted 03 February 2015 - 09:20 AM

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How are today's models looking so far?

#29
Illinois_WX

Posted 03 February 2015 - 09:30 AM

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How are today's models looking so far?

Not too shabby I suppose. GFS gives Lincoln 3-5". NAM still juicy, but relatively similar amounts just more widespread. Looks to be about 4-6" with it. I'd say we're just about locked in for a solid 3-5" at minimum. Who knows, this thing could get amped and gives us more.


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'18-'19 DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SNOWFALL TOTAL: ~20" (as of 02/05/19) 

 

 

 

 

 


#30
educatorjen

Posted 03 February 2015 - 09:57 AM

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How is Omaha looking?

#31
NEJeremy

Posted 03 February 2015 - 10:03 AM

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How is Omaha looking?

I'd say 2-3", maybe 4" if we're lucky



#32
educatorjen

Posted 03 February 2015 - 10:05 AM

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I'm feeling lucky!

#33
Illinois_WX

Posted 03 February 2015 - 10:06 AM

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I'd say 2-3", maybe 4" if we're lucky

Omaha should do okay. The bulk of the heaviest precip will probably be south where the lift is looking better to support the heavier snows. But who knows. It's going to come down to the actual day tomorrow for us to know where it will really end up.


'18-'19 DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SNOWFALL TOTAL: ~20" (as of 02/05/19) 

 

 

 

 

 


#34
Snowlover76

Posted 03 February 2015 - 10:18 AM

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Omaha should do okay. The bulk of the heaviest precip will probably be south where the lift is looking better to support the heavier snows. But who knows. It's going to come down to the actual day tomorrow for us to know where it will really end up.


I think we are good for at least 3 here in Lincoln. Omaha is good for around 2"

#35
pack402

Posted 03 February 2015 - 10:35 AM

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Local met Jim flowers says euro came in north of nam and gfs. Anyone have precip maps? Could be good for Omaha

#36
gabel23

Posted 03 February 2015 - 12:01 PM

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Things are looking pretty consistent. Looking like a solid 2-4" event for most of us in Eastern Nebraska. Here are some projected totals, Hastings projections are from this morning and OAX just updated at noon. 

Attached Files



#37
Tony

Posted 03 February 2015 - 12:25 PM

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18Z Nam really nails you guys....hope this pans out!!

Attached Files



#38
Tom

Posted 03 February 2015 - 12:29 PM

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18z NAM total snowfall...I could see WSW issued tonight if this pans out.  Very intense snowfall rates up to 3"/hr in C NE.  Crazy!  It will look like a "mini" Blizzard out there.



#39
CentralNebWeather

Posted 03 February 2015 - 12:31 PM

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I am in a WWA for 2-5 inches but they keep saying localized areas could get alot more if underneath one of the heavier bands.  Being a teacher, many students have been asking about this as we just had Monday off.  Going to be short lived but intense.  Heaviest snow from 3 AM- Noon with potential of 40 MPH gusts.  Should be an interesting night of following the models.  Mentioned that could be large variance of amounts over short distance.



#40
Snowlover76

Posted 03 February 2015 - 12:35 PM

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Looks like OAX is sitting on their hands……again. 


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#41
FarmerRick

Posted 03 February 2015 - 12:42 PM

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Looks like OAX is sitting on their hands……again. 

 

 

Yeah, it's surprising considering how consistent the models have been... just gradually moving the track to the north ever so slowly.



#42
Sven

Posted 03 February 2015 - 01:04 PM

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Can we trust the NAM though...? It performed decently last storm just totals too high. 

Whats the best model this close, RGEM, something else? 



#43
Sven

Posted 03 February 2015 - 01:06 PM

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North Platte Just went WSW...information to follow. 



#44
Sven

Posted 03 February 2015 - 01:07 PM

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North Platte WSW: 

 

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO NOON CST /11 AM
MST/ WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVY SNOW BAND IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW
BAND...AND ONLY A MINOR SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE HEAVY
SNOW INTO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THIS
EVENING. SNOW WILL END WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
 


#45
Snowlover76

Posted 03 February 2015 - 01:07 PM

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Can we trust the NAM though...? It performed decently last storm just totals too high. 

Whats the best model this close, RGEM, something else? 

The RGEM is an awesome model.  Super accurate. 



#46
Sven

Posted 03 February 2015 - 01:10 PM

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The RGEM is an awesome model.  Super accurate. 

And how is it looking?  :D



#47
Snowlover76

Posted 03 February 2015 - 01:16 PM

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And how is it looking?  :D

havent gotten around to it today.  Been pretty busy. 



#48
NEJeremy

Posted 03 February 2015 - 01:54 PM

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The 20Z RAP shows the heaviest band right through central Nebraska and through 14Z tomorrow(8am) has very impressive amounts already, including Omaha. Shows 2"/hr rates! Has .25" qpf for Omaha and at the ratios it should fall at could easily be 4-5". Already not looking forward to tomorrow's drive!



#49
Tom

Posted 03 February 2015 - 01:59 PM

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12z RGEM...


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#50
Tom

Posted 03 February 2015 - 02:19 PM

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18z RGEM...