Jump to content

Presidents Day - Fat Tuesday Potential Significant Winter Storm


Tom

Recommended Posts

A few days ago there were signs of a potential major storm system to affect a large portion of the Central CONUS.  After reviewing last nights global models/ensembles, the vast majority of them are trying to converge on a widespread system over the Central CONUS.  Let's discuss this storm potential.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As a Cub fan I'm forever the optimist. "Anything that can happen will" and "Wait till next year (storm)" are all a part of my lexicon.

 

I don't see how this can possibly come this far north with a high pressure like this bearing down. But until there is absolutely no chance...I'll follow along.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015021100/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_8.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

06z GFS caving back to it's original idea Sunday night of a snowstorm from NE to the Lower Lakes...almost very similar to what happened with the Super Bowl storm.  We are on the verge of a major shift into a colder pattern in the central CONUS as the LRC enters the 2-3 week "cold phase".  Usually nature likes to develop a system when a shift of this magnitude develops so that the atmosphere can balance out.  What better way to do this and see nature blossom a major storm system.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z GFS is pretty much identical to 6z GFS 

A little further S as the Arctic Express is starting to overwhelm the system. System needs to continue to strengthen- rather then the weakening it exhibits once it gets in S.MO N.AR-- if it does continue to strengthen -- the sky is the limit.USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_144.gif

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I love the look of this storm as it ejects out on the lee side of the Rockies near CO/KS and digs a little south before turning the corner.  I remember these classic Pan Handle Hook systems that just dump massive snowfall totals from the Plains to the Lakes.  If the 12z GFS didn't leave behind a small piece in the 4 corners, it would have hooked farther NW.  Stronger storm, the farther NW the track.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS already showing 12"+ totals this far out.  If this trend continues, can you imagine what it will show on Monday???  Woop! ;)

Yep, abundant moisture with a huge temperature gradient will make for a very explosive system. This could be huge if all comes together just right and whatever snow does fall will be staying around for quite sometime cause the cold that is coming is just WOW!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

You are correct, that would be my main concern.  I usually have a negative thought about all storms that we are in line for:  too much cold air, not enough moisture, low too far south, t-storms further south that rob it of moisture.  Still several days to track.  Looks like we might also want to focus on the Feb. 21-22 time frame but that is way to far ahead.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...