Presidents Day - Fat Tuesday Potential Significant Winter Storm

[Tom]

12z Euro looks disorganized...

[Snowlover76]

That's one heck of a storm EURO is showing for the east coast on the 15th. L gets down to sub 960. Wonder how this will affect our potential storm down the road. 

Im so sick of these east coast storms.  Hopefully the next 5 winters there are torches. 

[Money]

What's up with you and the east coast? You seem to hate them for some silly reason. It's not their fault they keep getting nailed. 

[Tom]

Im so sick of these east coast storms.  Hopefully the next 5 winters there are torches. 

Why are you "hating" so bad???  Big deal, let them get their snow storms.  You can't control the way nature works.  Once the NE pacific waters cool, NE will get their fair share of winters over the next few years.

[Snowlover76]

They have had this stretch going on there since the 90's.  I think NYC has had only a handful of sub 20" winters since 1993. It has to break there. 

[Tom]

The Jet Stream looks much flatter on today's 12z run...seems like the models are leaving the energy in the SW to long...let's see what today's Euro Ensembles look like.  Hopefully the 12z JMA holds strong.

[gosaints]

They have had this stretch going on there since the 90's.  I think NYC has had only a handful of sub 20" winters since 1993. It has to break there. 

The have relative large source of moisture there wouldnt you say?  There big storms are not going to go away.  This year is beyond normal, but they get big dogs that wont change

[Tom]

They have had this stretch going on there since the 90's.  I think NYC has had only a handful of sub 20" winters since 1993. It has to break there. 

Look at the geographic region of where NYC is compared to NE...come on, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why they have better winters than the Plains.

[Grizzcoat]

I would be willing to let Nanook of North work his awesome low level force if I have to see 2-4" event compared to a far greater amount- as long as KHOU and KMSY get some snow which is suggested by the Euro 12Z 168-174hr. Amazing. Of course it's AGW at work.

[Money]

Why does it matter though? East coast will always have their share because they usually get the big dogs because of the ocean next to them which adds more moisture to storms etc on the flip side the ocean can cause warmer temps which can lead to rain etc but they are usually boom or bust. They don't get many clippers like we do in the MW.

[winterfreak]

No EURO snow map= not good news.

[Tom]

12z Euro...

[Niko]

Family of mine told me that they keep hearing about big snows next week from NYC points north into Boston. Have a feeling that this system will dig farther south as a miller A, pick up ton of GOM and Atlantic moisture and head up the east coast as a monster blizzard. Just my gut feeling on this one and the midwest looks frigid and bonedry. Cant wait to see how this will turn out. Still plenty of days for models to figure this on out.

 

BTW....My cousin from Boston text me that they have no more room to put the snow there anymore. They are running outta space. Illegally, they are dumping all of that snow in the Atlantic. Currently at 77.0" for the season and still plenty more time left to go.

 

My sister from NYC told me that this year has been a real brutal and harsh winter so far, but more ice than snow. Either way, its been a ruff winter season, which started from January till now.

[Snowlover76]

The have relative large source of moisture there wouldnt you say?  There big storms are not going to go away.  This year is beyond normal, but they get big dogs that wont change

Look at the 60's 70's and 80's there.  I think they had one or maybe 2 12+ inch stomrs per decade.  Now they get two 12+ storms a season.  Its nuts. 

[winterfreak]

Boston lol getting ridiculous. Here I am praying for measurable snow.

[Grizzcoat]

Why does it matter though? East coast will always have their share because they usually get the big dogs because of the ocean next to them which adds more moisture to storms etc on the flip side the ocean can cause warmer temps which can lead to rain etc but they are usually boom or bust. They don't get many clippers like we do in the MW.

East coast gets one good winter out of 7-8. Any spot in the Midwest/Plains--- OMA/DSM/ORD/MSP gets double the chance of a big winter-- just not the high end chance like KBOS  gets. Plus-- on avg-- here in at least in IA ,MN -- we hold on to snowcover much longer -- on avg--...  And bigger storm potential later/earlier in the year. A broken clock is right twice a day-- climo wise-- give me the Upper Plains (IA,MN) for a long lived winter. They got lucky this year.

[Tom]

Both the OP 12z GGEM/EURO don't really amplify this storm on today's 12z runs and they look more sheared.  I don't believe that will be the case since the AO will be near neutral and the EPO deeply negative allowing this storm to dig better in the Plains.  That energy in the 4 corners and when/how it ejects is going to be significant.  Down stream we will need to pay attn to the departing HP in the East and a piece of the PV near the Hudson Bay.

[Tony]

Family of mine told me that they keep hearing about big snows next week from NYC points north into Boston. Have a feeling that this system will dig farther south as a miller A, pick up ton of GOM and Atlantic moisture and head up the east coast as a monster blizzard. Just my gut feeling on this one and the midwest looks frigid and bonedry. Cant wait to see how this will turn out. Still plenty of days for models to figure this on out.

 

BTW....My cousin from Boston text me that they have no more room to put the snow there anymore. They are running outta space. Illegally, they are dumping all of that snow in the Atlantic. Currently at 77.0" for the season and still plenty more time left to go.

 

My sister from NYC told me that this year has been a real brutal and harsh winter so far, but more ice than snow. Either way, its been a ruff winter season, which started from January till now.

The system they are talking about is the one this weekend not this one. This storm could possibly bring them rain or nothing at all.

[gosaints]

The system they are talking about is the one this weekend not this one. This storm could possibly bring them rain or nothing at all.

could also bring them at least some snow.

[Money]

Both the OP 12z GGEM/EURO don't really amplify this storm on today's 12z runs and they look more sheared.  I don't believe that will be the case since the AO will be near neutral and the EPO deeply negative allowing this storm to dig better in the Plains.  That energy in the 4 corners and when/how it ejects is going to be significant.  Down stream we will need to pay attn to the departing HP in the East and a piece of the PV near the Hudson Bay.

 

Nothing is going to be deiced until that big east coast system gets out of the way etc. At least 3 days away before knowing what will happen. 

[Tony]

I guess the only takeaway from this afternoon is that there will be a storm somewhere.

[Money]

12z JMA

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2015021112/jma_z500_mslp_us_7.png

[WBadgersW]

You never want to be in the bullseye 4-5 days out. You usually want to be just north of the main snow band, so I think Iowa/Chicago is looking really good

My guess is Chicago will be the winner again.

 

How much snow is up by you?

[Niko]

The system they are talking about is the one this weekend not this one. This storm could possibly bring them rain or nothing at all.

Boston to get rain or a miss is like almost impossible the way they are going this year. Its like a weenie running the atmosphere the way it wants too. No escape from not getting a snowstorm in the Boston area. Its a lock on every single storm. Just incredible. Boston on up to down east Maine gets crushed once again. Amazing winter for them.

[gosaints]

Boston to get rain or a miss is like almost impossible the way they are going this year. Its like a weenie running the atmosphere the way it wants too. No escape from not getting a snowstorm in the Boston area. Its a lock on every single storm. Just incredible. Boston on up to down east Maine gets crushed once again. Amazing winter for them.

Rain would be horrible for them. Roofs collapses everywhere

[Tom]

12z JMA...holding strong...more precip and a tad north...

[winterfreak]

Yeah JMA with 1.5 qpf IMBY. Would be epic but lmao unlikely.

[Tom]

12z Euro Ensemble/Control...

[GDR]

That looks impessive out east! Here not so much!

[Tom]

Saw this off Wx Bell from JB...must be seeing a snow storm...

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Screen_Shot_2015_02_11_at_12_00_02_PM.png

[FV-Mike]

Lot afternoon AFD

 

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MIDLEVEL ENERGY GATHERING IN
SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING INTO NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE HAVING FITS ON WHAT DEGREE OF PHASING OCCURS
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM AS THESE PIECES SHIFT INTO
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...AT LEAST A PERIOD OF WARM
ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS IN SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA FOR NOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
PERIOD CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING...AS SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
OFFERED POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR
REGION. ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND
WHATEVER HAPPENS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
 

[NEJeremy]

Omaha WFO already has snow likely for eastern Nebraska with accumulations likely on Monday as well

[winterfreak]

Yeah 90% chance of snow Sunday night into Monday.

[Tom]

18z GFS wagons south....

[winterfreak]

GFS no bueno.

[Tony]

No worries..we have the JMA on our side not to mention most of the ensembles.

[winterfreak]

So easy to tell the trends on this board lol. Complete silence.

[FV-Mike]

Glad it is only Wednesday

[GDR]

She's going down,down,down.

[jimmyzlc]

Here where I live in Central Illinois we have been teased all winter with prospects of snow only to see them go just far enough north to miss us. I'm talking just 15 to 20 miles. I plow snow to make ends meet in the winter talk about frustrating. I so enjoy site though. Love keeping up on the prospects. Hopefully this one will hold still and give me some white stuff.