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2/21 - 2/22 Winter Storm Potential


Tom

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Most models/ensembles are targeting another short wave/system to develop in the Plains states and head ENE towards the OV/Lower Lakes.  Phasing/Track/Intensity are still up in the air as there is much disagreement in the placement of the heaviest snow band among the models.  Let's discuss this storm potential.

 

 

IMO, the transitioning PNA towards neutral/negative territory seems to be leading models to take a track west of the Appalachians.  If we can get a better phase, we could have a stronger storm.  This would be a classic Pan Handle Hook but teleconnections don't really support a very strong/dynamic storm.  Still plenty of time to see how this one pans out.

 

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NAM looks kind of warm no? Those relative humidity readings are sweet though. Gulf is wide open just need a nice track.

Not really, it has temps near 30F by you...the difference between the 18z GFS & 00z NAM is the progression of the arctic air to the north.  18z GFS pushing it south faster which suppresses the storm.  Let's see what the 00z GFS has in store.

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I think we are a little bit too early to start a thread on this. Last weeks thread for the "President's day and Fat Tuesday storm" was a total dud. Should have waited at least another 24 hours before starting this.... 

Speak for yourself in your own back yard.  If you lived in the southern Plains/Midwest, you got a significant winter storm.  It's pretty selfish to say that since this forum covers a huge amount of real estate in the central CONUS.

 

Everybody has their choice to post on here.  You don't need to come on here and tell someone that it is a bad idea to issue a new Thread on a storm system that has "real" potential and since we are only 3-4 days out.  It also "cleans" up the February Discussion and keeps posts separate from the general discussions.

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Speak for yourself in your own back yard.  If you lived in the southern Plains/Midwest, you got a significant winter storm.  It's pretty selfish to say that since this forum covers a huge amount of real estate in the central CONUS.

 

Everybody has their choice to post on here.  You don't need to come on here and tell someone that it is a bad idea to issue a new Thread on a storm system that has "real" potential and since we are only 3-4 days out.  It also "cleans" up the February Discussion and keeps posts separate from the general discussions.

You're right Tom, after seeing the new GFS, we are heading in the right direction. I just don't like being missed by powerhouse winter storms. 

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You're right Tom, after seeing the new GFS, we are heading in the right direction. I just don't like being missed by powerhouse winter storms. 

I don't think anyone on here likes getting missed by winter storms.  We are hitting our stride as we speak and Winter is about to deliver some very interesting storm systems over the next 2-3 weeks.  Let's all try to enjoy tracking winter storms as much as we can before Spring arrives.

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From what I can tell, there is much better sampling of the northern piece.  Should be some interesting runs as we move forward.

 

 

00z GFS full run....nails DTX...nice stripe of warning snows from CO to MI...BTW, GFS showing some nice LehS in NE IL which turns to pure LES as the storm departs.

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00z GFS has some pretty cold temps with this storm.  Low 20's with high winds should be pretty nice and fluffy powda blown around.  High ratio snow fall for sure.

 

Meantime, this storm pumps real warm temps on the East Coast.  Near 50F in NYC and mid/upper 30's in Boston with heavy RAIN.  That won't bode well on the roofs of homes/businesses.

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00z GFS has some pretty cold temps with this storm.  Low 20's with high winds should be pretty nice and fluffy powda blown around.  High ratio snow fall for sure.

 

Meantime, this storm pumps real warm temps on the East Coast.  Near 50F in NYC and mid/upper 30's in Boston with heavy RAIN.  That won't bode well on the roofs of homes/businesses.

the're is going to be widespread flooging in the boston area with this system with tempsmid to upper 30's showing up and 50's for new york city.

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00z GGEM south of GFS, but certainly trending and snowier from previous runs and its a bit NW from the 12z run...wierd run as it leaves behind a piece of energy in the Rockies that produces a separate snow storm that hits the Plains alone.

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Yeah Lezak is saying.dusting to four inches is his guy feeling. Hope he's wrong.

I think Gary is being very conservative with his forecast and not buying into the GFS yet.  This storm is showing a very good track for the KC area.  Remember what he said for the SB storm and that it wouldn't phase and become what it did.

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