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2/21 - 2/22 Winter Storm Potential

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Tom
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Speak for yourself in your own back yard.  If you lived in the southern Plains/Midwest, you got a significant winter storm.  It's pretty selfish to say that since this forum covers a huge amount of re

Tom
Tom

00z GFS has some pretty cold temps with this storm.  Low 20's with high winds should be pretty nice and fluffy powda blown around.  High ratio snow fall for sure.   Meantime, this storm pumps real war

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GGEM with ratios:   http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/uploads/monthly_02_2015/post-4070-0-98892400-1424277970.gif

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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12z Euro....baby steps...it looses some steam as it heads ENE and doesn't really wrap up into a mature storm.  12z NAM sorta looked like it wanted to amp up towards the end of the run.  12z GGEM the most aggressive storm, but the Euro is playing catch up now.  Nice trends in the models today. Better sampling def evident.  Tonight's runs will be interesting.

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Tony Enthusiast

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Euro has been playing catch-up most of this winter so not surprised. It still has a ways to go and probably won't reach it's full potential until about 36hrs or so out but still nice trends today on the 12z runs. The potential is definitely there for a nice wound-up storm.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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I think there will be more of an expansive precip shield with this system.  This storm is taking on a text book Winter Strom track for the Plains/Lakes and the GOM is open for business.  Models that are playing catch up are getting stronger/wetter since yesterday.  As this storm encompasses the balloon network, I could see some bigger improvements.

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Tom Grand Master

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I thought the teleconnections didn't support any phasing?

I am pleasantly surprised the models are phasing this system.  The downstream HP to the east is allowing this storm to dig/slow moreso than previous days.  It's not often you see a phased storm with a sky high AO/NAO.  I think the transitioning PNA is the helping factor here.

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Tom Grand Master

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After reviewing all 51 members individually, there are a lot more wound up solutions that previous runs.  This baby is trending in the right direction.  I think someone is going to get clobbered.  Pretty quick hitter in this type of pattern...maybe an 8-12 hour storm if all works out.

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Grizzcoat Veteran

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Tom, they do not. This may be the reason for bad phasing.

Which is why anything past 72 hours (other then temp trends) is basically useless on the 6 and 18Z runs...

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