Tom Posted February 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 00z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wow really discouraging Oz suite so far tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS and NAM leave most of the western energy out west, where it cuts off and parks over California. That won't leave anything but a light snow shower and more cold air for us. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 Gem is further north and stronger than gfs and nam 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 Backing way off its amped run of earlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 Ukie doesn't have a storm really Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 This morning was a mirage says the Oz suite of all the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z Euro...much weaker... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 The teleconnections do not support a major storm imho. I am sure temperatures will be soaring by March if the forecasted AO is right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 06 GFS = too much cold air and no phasing. No storm for most. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 Gfs=stick a fork in it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 What is strange is that local mets haven't given up on the storm but most of us have. It is usually reversed around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 My forecast is calling for 3-6inches???!!! WTF? My area needs to lower those amounts to around an inch or less. This storm was forecast to move south and transform its energy off the east coast, at least inland areas to get heavy snow and snow to rain for the coast. What a weird storm its shaping out to be. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is pretty much a non-event here. On to the next one... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 I still have interest in this system. As mentioned below, until this thing is sampled there can be changes. LOTGUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLEDAND CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE STRENGTH/SPEED OF THISWAVE AND THEREFORE THE STRENGTH/SPEED OF THE RESULTANT SURFACELOW. LATEST RUNS SHOW A LESS IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM BUT CONTINUITY ISLACKING SO AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT. THE PARENT WAVE THAT WILL DRIVEALL OF THIS IS STILL OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND SHOULD BEONSHORE BY THIS EVENING FOR BETTER RAOB SAMPLING. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 Will have to wait for the 12z runs to see what the verdict is but the last couple runs showing a much weaker sheared out wave not able to produce much precip in the cold sector. The main ingredient to the track and strength of this storm is still out of range and will not have a partial sampling till the 0z runs and a full sampling by 12z tomorrow so expect to see more model waffling until then. We have seen this soo many times this year we should be used to it and probably not even start to follow a storm system until it is about 36hrs out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 I think I just said this a few days ago on the previous storm... NEXT!! Man what a crappy winter for most of us here. Sure it's been cold at times, but other than 1-2 storms, this winter has definitely not shaped up to what it was supposed to be when we were all talking about it last fall. So much for the back to back winters like the late 70s that this was supposed to rival. March can still be a good month for a big snowstorm, so we can't write that off yet, although I'm not holding my breath. Heck, if I had been holding my breath for all the big pattern changes and big storms that were supposed to be coming, I would have been dead back at the end of December, lol!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 I still have interest in this system. As mentioned below, until this thing is sampled there can be changes. LOTGUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLEDAND CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE STRENGTH/SPEED OF THISWAVE AND THEREFORE THE STRENGTH/SPEED OF THE RESULTANT SURFACELOW. LATEST RUNS SHOW A LESS IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM BUT CONTINUITY ISLACKING SO AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT. THE PARENT WAVE THAT WILL DRIVEALL OF THIS IS STILL OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND SHOULD BEONSHORE BY THIS EVENING FOR BETTER RAOB SAMPLING.enjoy your sloppy inch of snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 enjoy your sloppy inch of snow.Will Do 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 What the heck are they seeing that we aren't ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 RGEM is a complete rainer lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z GEM staying the course...FWIW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z GGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z GGEM...American models vs European...who will win out in the end. Not a big storm either way and what a shame with all that moisture to the south....what could have been!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLIZZARD09 Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 American models vs European...who will win out in the end. Not a big storm either way and what a shame with all that moisture to the south....what could have been!!And looks like nothing much in the future after this either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z Euro...with this storm now evidently becoming a non event, looking forward to the possible 1" tomorrow...lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 American models vs European...who will win out in the end. Not a big storm either way and what a shame with all that moisture to the south....what could have been!!The only one left standing is "Oh Canada". What does it know that the other models are not seeing....either has better sampling of northern wave or just out of touch with reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 Where the hell did Saturday storm go? Starting this thread's so early pointless 2nd storm in a row Tom has started only to have the storm vanish. Think time to ban Tom from starting new thread's about future storm clearly he's to blame for our sudden vanishing storm's. What it could of been with all the moisture to the south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 Where the hell did Saturday storm go? Starting this thread's so early pointless 2nd storm in a row Tom has started only to have the storm vanish. Think time to ban Tom from starting new thread's about future storm clearly he's to blame for our sudden vanishing storm's. What it could of been with all the moisture to the south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 @ Seasqaukfan You're not serious I hope. Everyone on every board has been taken to the cleaners by these craptastic mid to long range model outputs. Tom's contributions make this board a place worth visiting, unlike your own. Get real dude! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 This thread was started 4 days before the potential storm. Was it not supposed to be started until after all the warnings went up if the storm came to fruition?Tom started a thread for something we were all talking about already anyways. Why the hell does it matter whether we are talking about it in a specific thread about that POTENTIAL storm or talking about it along with everything else we discussed in that month? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'm wasn't serious just annoyed our storm's seem to vanish about this time frustrating winter as far as snow concerned. All the cold dry such a waste without Snow. Obviously Tom not to blame. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 Get a grip people. If anyone should be pissed about storms that don't come to fruition, it should be me and the other people who plow to make a living and pay the bills in the winter. Tom does a great job putting forth the best information he can to track storms. Nothing wrong with starting a thread for a storm that will eventually affect someone here on this forum. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 Get a grip people. If anyone should be pissed about storms that don't come to fruition, it should be me and the other people who plow to make a living and pay the bills in the winter. Tom does a great job putting forth the best information he can to track storms. Nothing wrong with starting a thread for a storm that will eventually affect someone here on this forum. Inside 120hrs is actually being very conservative for thread starting. Heck, look at AccuWx's forums, they'll start threads 15 days out. LOL! This board has it's core following from Chicago west to Nebraska, so a thread in this forum won't likely be started for an event that's only going to hit a few of us outside that geographical zone. Case in point, these clippers that have hit SWMI and mby a couple times this winter = no thread. And that's fine. I don't need a thread for a few posts from a few of us getting hit. Makes no sense. I'm sure Tom is just as frustrated at how teased we've been by the mid-range models this season. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 At any rate, RGEM chucks some of us a bone. If this could go a bit stronger, we'd take a 3-6" event and get it back to a stripe of warning level snows. Let's see what curve balls the next 48 hrs can hurl at us. http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/uploads/monthly_02_2015/post-4070-0-46322100-1424386202.png Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 20, 2015 Report Share Posted February 20, 2015 The NAM has really surged solid moisture back up into the Ohio Valley region this evening, so folks from Missouri to Ohio could still get a nice snowfall. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2015 00z NAM...I know there are some C IL posters on here...looks like they may get in on some snow... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 20, 2015 Report Share Posted February 20, 2015 A sleet storm here? Yikes no thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 20, 2015 Report Share Posted February 20, 2015 On my phone have not looked but have heard GFS is wetter and stronger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.