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March 2015 Observations and Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 22 February 2015 - 12:55 PM

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With meteorological Winter coming to a close and the opening of Spring around the corner, will we see March open like a Lion or a Lamb this year???  There is a system that needs to be monitored late next weekend into the early part of next week.  Let's discuss that system in this thread and the overall pattern change that looks to be heading our way as we roll on into March.

 

FWIW, the Euro Ensembles keep getting snowier for the central CONUS signalling the pattern change that is on the horizon.



#2
Tom

Posted 22 February 2015 - 01:24 PM

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I'm posting the 12z Euro Ensembles Day 10-15 mean.  This looks like a cold/stormy SW Flow with a pronounced SE Ridge.  For an ensemble to see that much blue in Canada, I'm sure it will trend significantly colder as we get closer.  You can see the PV still established near Hudson Bay.  Check out the storm track in the Pacific from Asia towards Hawaii.  This month may turn out to be the snowiest month for the Plains/Midwest.



#3
winterfreak

Posted 22 February 2015 - 01:45 PM

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Looks very active to open March. Hopefully there's enough cold air. Gary Lezak seems to think the pattern will flip after the seventh of the month. We'll see what happens.

#4
Tom

Posted 22 February 2015 - 01:56 PM

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Looks very active to open March. Hopefully there's enough cold air. Gary Lezak seems to think the pattern will flip after the seventh of the month. We'll see what happens.

I think there will be a pull back coming sometime around then.



#5
Tom

Posted 22 February 2015 - 02:29 PM

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18z GFS....



#6
winterfreak

Posted 22 February 2015 - 02:32 PM

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Congratulations I80 on the 18z GFS.

#7
gosaints

Posted 22 February 2015 - 02:41 PM

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Waiting patiently

#8
james1976

Posted 22 February 2015 - 03:20 PM

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Congratulations I80 on the 18z GFS.

Most of it is north of I80 on that run.



#9
GDR

Posted 22 February 2015 - 03:43 PM

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Looks a little warm on the gfs

#10
winterfreak

Posted 22 February 2015 - 03:53 PM

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Most of it is north of I80 on that run.

Along and north of I guess would be the correct wayvof saying it.

#11
Scott26

Posted 22 February 2015 - 07:09 PM

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I like the potential with the early March storm. Since we're getting closer to spring time the dynamics of these late winter storms are often a lot better and more convective in nature.



#12
Money

Posted 22 February 2015 - 08:21 PM

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0z GFS is still solid 



#13
Tom

Posted 22 February 2015 - 08:27 PM

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Nice widespread event...just hope it maintains...



#14
winterfreak

Posted 22 February 2015 - 08:30 PM

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Darn warm air will get us again. I-80 definitely gets it this run.

#15
WildWisconsinWeather

Posted 22 February 2015 - 08:41 PM

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Nice widespread event...just hope it maintains...

 

I got a solid feeling about this one, maybe not a good sign lol, but that -PNA is a bit reassuring.



#16
Tom

Posted 22 February 2015 - 10:45 PM

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00z Euro loading up the moisture for next weekends system...



#17
jcwxguy

Posted 22 February 2015 - 10:59 PM

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00z Euro loading up the moisture for next weekends system...

any way to isolate that into a 48 hour time frame instead of total ?



#18
jcwxguy

Posted 23 February 2015 - 03:05 AM

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06z gfs says hello

 

USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_183_zpssuekgmrl.gif



#19
Money

Posted 23 February 2015 - 03:09 AM

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Feeling pretty good about this system for some reason even though it's 5-6 days out.



#20
james1976

Posted 23 February 2015 - 03:28 AM

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6z GFS is insane. It snows for 54 hours straight. Nice to see Euro getting wet as well!



#21
james1976

Posted 23 February 2015 - 03:34 AM

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06z gfs says hello

 

USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_183_zpssuekgmrl.gif

It actually keeps snowing past this. Anyone got a storm total map from when the system actually moves out for all of us??



#22
Money

Posted 23 February 2015 - 04:55 AM

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6zgfssnowtotals2.gif


  • Tom and FV-Mike like this

#23
winterfreak

Posted 23 February 2015 - 05:19 AM

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Wow superbowl repeat for I-80.

#24
FV-Mike

Posted 23 February 2015 - 06:29 AM

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Lot of moisture to work with. For people to the east we just need the temps to cooperate.



#25
GDR

Posted 23 February 2015 - 06:35 AM

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Wouldn't surprise me if it turned out to be a Minnesota and Wisconsin special!

#26
Tony

Posted 23 February 2015 - 08:13 AM

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I really have not paid attention to the weather for the past couple days so am surprised to see a system for next weekend on all the models. I guess something to follow but a long ways out for sure.



#27
Tom

Posted 23 February 2015 - 08:21 AM

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Nice to see the models recognizing the -PNA, surprised to see such a wound up storm.  Still a long ways away to see how this one develops.  That SE Ridge might be the cattle prod that can feed these systems the energy to blow up some significant storm systems this month.



#28
Maxim

Posted 23 February 2015 - 08:31 AM

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Regarding the weekend system, I think it looks a bit warm for any significant snow amounts around here. I just don't see this one getting suppressed to the south like previous systems.

#29
Tom

Posted 23 February 2015 - 08:35 AM

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Regarding the weekend system, I think it looks a bit warm for any significant snow amounts around here. I just don't see this one getting suppressed to the south like previous systems.

Upper 20's are sufficient temps to fluff up snow.  Run to run varience is expected this far out, but EURO/GFS all showing a ton of moisture with this system.  GFS keeps spitting out 1.0"+ qpf totals near by.



#30
GDR

Posted 23 February 2015 - 08:35 AM

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I think your right. I look for another 100-200 mile jog north.

#31
winterfreak

Posted 23 February 2015 - 08:40 AM

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That looks slightly better I guess. Hooray for Nebraska there.

#32
Maxim

Posted 23 February 2015 - 08:42 AM

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Upper 20's are sufficient temps to fluff up snow.  Run to run varience is expected this far out, but EURO/GFS all showing a ton of moisture with this system.  GFS keeps spitting out 1.0"+ qpf totals near by.


The general large-scale weather pattern by that point would argue for a north trend with this system, which could end up being a mix of rain/snow, or even mostly rain.

#33
Maxim

Posted 23 February 2015 - 08:43 AM

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I'm rooting for this to be a MSP special, they've had it rough this winter.
  • Snowshoe likes this

#34
Tom

Posted 23 February 2015 - 08:46 AM

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I'm rooting for this to be a MSP special, they've had it rough this winter.

I could see that.  In your world, you probably don't want to see anymore snow!  If this system gets wound up, yes, I could see it becoming a mixing issue around here.  Although, it's hard to see that be the case with a sky high AO.



#35
Tony

Posted 23 February 2015 - 08:53 AM

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This sure beats the suppressed storms we have been seeing so in my eyes this is a farther north track. How far north remains to be seen but either way will be nice to see a pattern change.



#36
Money

Posted 23 February 2015 - 09:10 AM

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ukie 144

 

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif



#37
Maxim

Posted 23 February 2015 - 10:12 AM

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I could see that.  In your world, you probably don't want to see anymore snow!  If this system gets wound up, yes, I could see it becoming a mixing issue around here.  Although, it's hard to see that be the case with a sky high AO.


After getting an 18" snowstorm, my enthusiasm is kind of low.

#38
Seahawkfan

Posted 23 February 2015 - 10:12 AM

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The new 12 g.f.s keeps it colder only very briefly does it pop up to 33 Stays mostly in the 20 though out the event this coming weekend.

#39
Tom

Posted 23 February 2015 - 10:17 AM

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After getting an 18" snowstorm, my enthusiasm is kind of low.

It ain't getting warm anytime soon, might as well let it snow!  I'm planning on leaving Chicago and heading to AZ in 2 weeks or so.  Not really seeing a nice looking forecast for Spring around here.  Certainly not like March 2012!   ^_^  



#40
Maxim

Posted 23 February 2015 - 10:20 AM

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It ain't getting warm anytime soon, might as well let it snow!  I'm planning on leaving Chicago and heading to AZ in 2 weeks or so.  Not really seeing a nice looking forecast for Spring around here.  Certainly not like March 2012!   ^_^

All signs are pointing toward a milder spring actually. Maybe not the first couple weeks of March though.

#41
Tom

Posted 23 February 2015 - 10:24 AM

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All signs are pointing toward a milder spring actually. Maybe not the first couple weeks of March though.

Really?  Where do you see that?  If your following the CFSv2, it doesn't do well 2-3 months out.  In fact, the last 14 days are already trending colder than normal for April.  Watch the trends as you get closer to the "Target" month.  I would put my money on the JMA/JAMSTEC in the longer range seasonal outlooks.



#42
Tom

Posted 23 February 2015 - 10:27 AM

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12z Euro really digging the weekend system in the 4 corners region at 120 HR...



#43
Money

Posted 23 February 2015 - 10:32 AM

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850 mb line is just south of Chicago at hr 144



#44
Tom

Posted 23 February 2015 - 10:41 AM

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12z Euro...



#45
gabel23

Posted 23 February 2015 - 10:45 AM

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12z Euro...

Do you have the digital totals for that run??



#46
bud2380

Posted 23 February 2015 - 11:05 AM

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Man I wish we could just lock that in right now.

#47
Tom

Posted 23 February 2015 - 11:09 AM

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Do you have the digital totals for that run??

No, its based on 10:1 snow ratios.  Gotta figure that out on your own.  I think there are some ppl on here that have the actual Euro Snowfall #'s.



#48
Maxim

Posted 23 February 2015 - 11:13 AM

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Really? Where do you see that? If your following the CFSv2, it doesn't do well 2-3 months out. In fact, the last 14 days are already trending colder than normal for April. Watch the trends as you get closer to the "Target" month. I would put my money on the JMA/JAMSTEC in the longer range seasonal outlooks.


The cross-polar flow can't last forever. The western ridge will move westward to the Aleutians, which will cause the cross-polar flow to break down. Subsequently, a trough will form in the West. Meanwhile, a ridge will start developing further east and will slowly start expanding.

#49
Tom

Posted 23 February 2015 - 11:17 AM

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The cross-polar flow can't last forever. The western ridge will move westward to the Aleutians, which will cause the cross-polar flow to break down. Subsequently, a trough will form in the West. Meanwhile, a ridge will start developing further east and will slowly start expanding.

Sure there will be seasonal transitions but i don't think the overall pattern will flip that fast.  We will have to wait till sometime in April where the pattern can slowly get out of the Winter pattern.  Last year it wasn't till late April/May when the temps finally were enjoyable.



#50
Maxim

Posted 23 February 2015 - 11:23 AM

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Sure there will be seasonal transitions but i don't think the overall pattern will flip that fast.  We will have to wait till sometime in April where the pattern can slowly get out of the Winter pattern.  Last year it wasn't till late April/May when the temps finally were enjoyable.


It felt like Spring never came last year. Was like we went from winter to summer with only a couple weeks of enjoyable spring weather.