Tom Posted February 22, 2015 Report Share Posted February 22, 2015 With meteorological Winter coming to a close and the opening of Spring around the corner, will we see March open like a Lion or a Lamb this year??? There is a system that needs to be monitored late next weekend into the early part of next week. Let's discuss that system in this thread and the overall pattern change that looks to be heading our way as we roll on into March. FWIW, the Euro Ensembles keep getting snowier for the central CONUS signalling the pattern change that is on the horizon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2015 I'm posting the 12z Euro Ensembles Day 10-15 mean. This looks like a cold/stormy SW Flow with a pronounced SE Ridge. For an ensemble to see that much blue in Canada, I'm sure it will trend significantly colder as we get closer. You can see the PV still established near Hudson Bay. Check out the storm track in the Pacific from Asia towards Hawaii. This month may turn out to be the snowiest month for the Plains/Midwest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 22, 2015 Report Share Posted February 22, 2015 Looks very active to open March. Hopefully there's enough cold air. Gary Lezak seems to think the pattern will flip after the seventh of the month. We'll see what happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2015 Looks very active to open March. Hopefully there's enough cold air. Gary Lezak seems to think the pattern will flip after the seventh of the month. We'll see what happens.I think there will be a pull back coming sometime around then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2015 18z GFS.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 22, 2015 Report Share Posted February 22, 2015 Congratulations I80 on the 18z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2015 Report Share Posted February 22, 2015 Waiting patiently Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 22, 2015 Report Share Posted February 22, 2015 Congratulations I80 on the 18z GFS.Most of it is north of I80 on that run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 22, 2015 Report Share Posted February 22, 2015 Looks a little warm on the gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 22, 2015 Report Share Posted February 22, 2015 Most of it is north of I80 on that run.Along and north of I guess would be the correct wayvof saying it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 I like the potential with the early March storm. Since we're getting closer to spring time the dynamics of these late winter storms are often a lot better and more convective in nature. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 0z GFS is still solid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 Nice widespread event...just hope it maintains... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 Darn warm air will get us again. I-80 definitely gets it this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 Nice widespread event...just hope it maintains... I got a solid feeling about this one, maybe not a good sign lol, but that -PNA is a bit reassuring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 00z Euro loading up the moisture for next weekends system... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 00z Euro loading up the moisture for next weekends system...any way to isolate that into a 48 hour time frame instead of total ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 06z gfs says hello http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_183_zpssuekgmrl.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 Feeling pretty good about this system for some reason even though it's 5-6 days out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 6z GFS is insane. It snows for 54 hours straight. Nice to see Euro getting wet as well! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 06z gfs says hello http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_183_zpssuekgmrl.gifIt actually keeps snowing past this. Anyone got a storm total map from when the system actually moves out for all of us?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 http://sm00f.com/6zgfssnowtotals2.gif 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 Wow superbowl repeat for I-80. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 Lot of moisture to work with. For people to the east we just need the temps to cooperate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 Wouldn't surprise me if it turned out to be a Minnesota and Wisconsin special! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 I really have not paid attention to the weather for the past couple days so am surprised to see a system for next weekend on all the models. I guess something to follow but a long ways out for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 Nice to see the models recognizing the -PNA, surprised to see such a wound up storm. Still a long ways away to see how this one develops. That SE Ridge might be the cattle prod that can feed these systems the energy to blow up some significant storm systems this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 Regarding the weekend system, I think it looks a bit warm for any significant snow amounts around here. I just don't see this one getting suppressed to the south like previous systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 Regarding the weekend system, I think it looks a bit warm for any significant snow amounts around here. I just don't see this one getting suppressed to the south like previous systems.Upper 20's are sufficient temps to fluff up snow. Run to run varience is expected this far out, but EURO/GFS all showing a ton of moisture with this system. GFS keeps spitting out 1.0"+ qpf totals near by. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think your right. I look for another 100-200 mile jog north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 That looks slightly better I guess. Hooray for Nebraska there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 Upper 20's are sufficient temps to fluff up snow. Run to run varience is expected this far out, but EURO/GFS all showing a ton of moisture with this system. GFS keeps spitting out 1.0"+ qpf totals near by.The general large-scale weather pattern by that point would argue for a north trend with this system, which could end up being a mix of rain/snow, or even mostly rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm rooting for this to be a MSP special, they've had it rough this winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm rooting for this to be a MSP special, they've had it rough this winter.I could see that. In your world, you probably don't want to see anymore snow! If this system gets wound up, yes, I could see it becoming a mixing issue around here. Although, it's hard to see that be the case with a sky high AO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 This sure beats the suppressed storms we have been seeing so in my eyes this is a farther north track. How far north remains to be seen but either way will be nice to see a pattern change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 ukie 144 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 I could see that. In your world, you probably don't want to see anymore snow! If this system gets wound up, yes, I could see it becoming a mixing issue around here. Although, it's hard to see that be the case with a sky high AO.After getting an 18" snowstorm, my enthusiasm is kind of low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 The new 12 g.f.s keeps it colder only very briefly does it pop up to 33 Stays mostly in the 20 though out the event this coming weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 After getting an 18" snowstorm, my enthusiasm is kind of low.It ain't getting warm anytime soon, might as well let it snow! I'm planning on leaving Chicago and heading to AZ in 2 weeks or so. Not really seeing a nice looking forecast for Spring around here. Certainly not like March 2012! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 It ain't getting warm anytime soon, might as well let it snow! I'm planning on leaving Chicago and heading to AZ in 2 weeks or so. Not really seeing a nice looking forecast for Spring around here. Certainly not like March 2012! All signs are pointing toward a milder spring actually. Maybe not the first couple weeks of March though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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