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March 2015 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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With meteorological Winter coming to a close and the opening of Spring around the corner, will we see March open like a Lion or a Lamb this year???  There is a system that needs to be monitored late next weekend into the early part of next week.  Let's discuss that system in this thread and the overall pattern change that looks to be heading our way as we roll on into March.

 

FWIW, the Euro Ensembles keep getting snowier for the central CONUS signalling the pattern change that is on the horizon.

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I'm posting the 12z Euro Ensembles Day 10-15 mean.  This looks like a cold/stormy SW Flow with a pronounced SE Ridge.  For an ensemble to see that much blue in Canada, I'm sure it will trend significantly colder as we get closer.  You can see the PV still established near Hudson Bay.  Check out the storm track in the Pacific from Asia towards Hawaii.  This month may turn out to be the snowiest month for the Plains/Midwest.

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Nice to see the models recognizing the -PNA, surprised to see such a wound up storm.  Still a long ways away to see how this one develops.  That SE Ridge might be the cattle prod that can feed these systems the energy to blow up some significant storm systems this month.

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Regarding the weekend system, I think it looks a bit warm for any significant snow amounts around here. I just don't see this one getting suppressed to the south like previous systems.

Upper 20's are sufficient temps to fluff up snow.  Run to run varience is expected this far out, but EURO/GFS all showing a ton of moisture with this system.  GFS keeps spitting out 1.0"+ qpf totals near by.

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Upper 20's are sufficient temps to fluff up snow.  Run to run varience is expected this far out, but EURO/GFS all showing a ton of moisture with this system.  GFS keeps spitting out 1.0"+ qpf totals near by.

The general large-scale weather pattern by that point would argue for a north trend with this system, which could end up being a mix of rain/snow, or even mostly rain.

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I'm rooting for this to be a MSP special, they've had it rough this winter.

I could see that.  In your world, you probably don't want to see anymore snow!  If this system gets wound up, yes, I could see it becoming a mixing issue around here.  Although, it's hard to see that be the case with a sky high AO.

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I could see that.  In your world, you probably don't want to see anymore snow!  If this system gets wound up, yes, I could see it becoming a mixing issue around here.  Although, it's hard to see that be the case with a sky high AO.

After getting an 18" snowstorm, my enthusiasm is kind of low.

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After getting an 18" snowstorm, my enthusiasm is kind of low.

It ain't getting warm anytime soon, might as well let it snow!  I'm planning on leaving Chicago and heading to AZ in 2 weeks or so.  Not really seeing a nice looking forecast for Spring around here.  Certainly not like March 2012!   ^_^  

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It ain't getting warm anytime soon, might as well let it snow!  I'm planning on leaving Chicago and heading to AZ in 2 weeks or so.  Not really seeing a nice looking forecast for Spring around here.  Certainly not like March 2012!   ^_^

 

All signs are pointing toward a milder spring actually. Maybe not the first couple weeks of March though.
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