March 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

no chance of verifying. ridging occurs after this transient cool shot.

Nope, maybe for a day or two, but the trough builds back in to close out March.  Especially when the cold part of the LRC comes back.  Obviously this will be March "style" type of cold but the chances that someone will see snow out of this pattern are pretty good.  12" totals probably over done, 6"+ certainly possible.

Sorry Maxim, but your ridging isn't coming back for sustained periods after this Monday.  The Plains stay warmer though, but near the Lakes it will be a different story.  After the 20th is when I think this pattern locks in for a good 2 week period of much below normal.

[SE Wisconsin]

Whenever the cold phase of the LRC has come around - it means business!  I was looking over stats in our area (SE WI) during the cold phase.  In November we had several days with lows in the low teens and single digits.  Then in late December/early January there were 9 days with below zero temps.  The February/early March version of the cold phase produced 13 days with lows below zero.  Wouldn't be surprised after March 25th or so to see several days with lows in the teens and highs only in the 30's.  Might be even colder than that if there's any fresh snow cover.    

[gosaints]

This coming week was suppose to be considerably below normal. That worked out well here.

[Tom]

Whenever the cold phase of the LRC has come around - it means business!  I was looking over stats in our area (SE WI) during the cold phase.  In November we had several days with lows in the low teens and single digits.  Then in late December/early January there were 9 days with below zero temps.  The February/early March version of the cold phase produced 13 days with lows below zero.  Wouldn't be surprised after March 25th or so to see several days with lows in the teens and highs only in the 30's.  Might be even colder than that if there's any fresh snow cover.    

You got that right.  My original call was and is that ORD has at least 1 daytime high in the 20's with or without snow cover sometime this month.  Might even but a couple days in a row if things work out just right.  Would not be surprised to see 20-25F below normal day time temps during this cold phase.  Winter's last hoorahh!

[Tom]

This coming week was suppose to be considerably below normal. That worked out well here.

Looks near normal over here after Monday when it will be in the low 70's!  That's going to feel freakin' awesome.  D**n clouds today are putting a damper on what would be an even better day. 

[Tom]

@ SE Wisconsin, you should have pretty good cross country ski conditions this coming weekend...

[SE Wisconsin]

@ SE Wisconsin, you should have pretty good cross country ski conditions this coming weekend...

Looking good!  Just need some fresh snow now.  The UP still has a good base of snow despite the warm temps this past week.  Add a couple of inches of fresh snow on top of that and temps in the teens - that would make for some awesome skiing!  Glad I waited a didn't go up this past week or this weekend. 

[Tom]

Looking good!  Just need some fresh snow now.  The UP still has a good base of snow despite the warm temps this past week.  Add a couple of inches of fresh snow on top of that and temps in the teens - that would make for some awesome skiing!  Glad I waited a didn't go up this past week or this weekend. 

12z Euro has 2 different Clippers dumping a fresh snow cover right on time...

[NEJeremy]

didn't the Euro show 12" of snow for Nebraska this Friday about 8-10 days out and look how that is going to verify. I know it's going to cool down, but I definitely don't believe a big snowstorm from the Euro and CMC especially when it is guess what, showing it 7-10+ days out. The huge Superbowl storm doesn't look like it's going to cycle through on the LRC with much umph either. It's cooling down this week but only to average in the 50-55 degree range too, definitely not a late season cold outbreak at least around here.

[CentralNebWeather]

79 degrees with 9% humidity. If a fire would start it would be trouble with the strong, dry south wind. Can't believe how dry it is here. We missed out on the fall rains, so if we don't get significant moisture we will all be paying for it one way or another.. Red flag warnings for the past week and a chance at 85-90 in places Monday. Way to early for this weather.

[SE Wisconsin]

12z Euro has 2 different Clippers dumping a fresh snow cover right on time...

Looking even better! Bring it on!

[Niko]

My highs tomorrow are expected to be somewhere between 65-70F. After tomorrow's weather, there is noway in hell that I would be interested in any more snow. Snow this time of the year is useless for many reasons.

 

I am on the look out for some thunderstorms, but not yet in my forecast.

 

Still some annoying patchy areas of snow that just do not wanna melt away. Hopefully, they will tomorrow.

[Tom]

Summer tease....

[tim the weatherman]

just looking at my facebook page and jb from weather bell is saying that this spring could be a big tornado season so watch the sky and he also has said this could be a repeat from 2011 tornado season.http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwnc.gif

[CentralNebWeather]

Yea Tim, I just watched the Saturday summary.  Comparing this spring to 2011.  Thinks trough will retrograde west.  Hopefully that means more moisture for the plains.

[Tom]

DTW did it last year....it was Boston's turn this year....

 

[Maxim]

Nope, maybe for a day or two, but the trough builds back in to close out March.  Especially when the cold part of the LRC comes back.  Obviously this will be March "style" type of cold but the chances that someone will see snow out of this pattern are pretty good.  12" totals probably over done, 6"+ certainly possible.

Sorry Maxim, but your ridging isn't coming back for sustained periods after this Monday.  The Plains stay warmer though, but near the Lakes it will be a different story.  After the 20th is when I think this pattern locks in for a good 2 week period of much below normal.

http://i.imgur.com/gCq8wXy.png

[Maxim]

The only model showing a trough building back in this area is the GFS, and it's on its own at this point. It doesn't even have ensemble support.

[CentralNebWeather]

9 pm in central Nebraska. 72 degrees with 8% humidity. Don't believe I have ever seen numbers like these in March. No wonder my son has had nose bleeds the last 3 days.

[Maxim]

Some places in western Iowa and Nebraska should hit 90 tomorrow.

[CentralNebWeather]

Yes maxim, would set all time records. Though you don't hear excitement from anyone because we know for agriculture in the region this isn't good at all. Even local news channels talking about the need for moisture or trouble is looming.

[Tom]

The only model showing a trough building back in this area is the GFS, and it's on its own at this point. It doesn't even have ensemble support.

Sure you do...

 

#1) JMA Weeklies are showing it

#2) Euro Ensembles

#3) CFSv2

 

 

Plus, you have the LRC in your back pocket...

[gosaints]

You can cross the euro ensembles off the list unless you like to look past 240 into fantasy land.  This week was too be much colder when the models had it in the 7 day range.  Now we are normal to slightly above.

[gosaints]

So far the GFS keeps 2m temps slightly above average right through friday.  Quite a stretch we have had

[Tom]

Mid/High level clouds putting putting a damper on what could have been a much better looking day.  Hopefully they clear soon enough.

[gosaints]

GFS says so much for that retrograding trough in the mid/long range

[Hawkeye]

The cirrus was somewhat thick again this morning and I thought there was no way we'd hit 80, but this afternoon the cirrus has thinned out and the temp has shot up to 77.

[gosaints]

Models are looking like a typical spring yo yo in the long range

[Maxim]

We'd have a shot at 80 today if it weren't for the clouds...

[james1976]

82 here!

[NEJeremy]

86 with a 12% relative humidity. It's a dry heat!! Broke a new record high too.

[Hawkeye]

82 here!

 

Eileen is improving.  She was only off by 10 degrees today.

[gabel23]

90 degrees in grand island setting a record. Also set a record for earliest 90 degree reading ever!

 

000

SXUS73 KGID 162120

RERGRI

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-

162300-

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE

420 PM CST MON MAR 16 2015

 

...GRAND ISLAND BREAKS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 16TH...

 

AS OF 302 PM CST...THE TEMPERATURE AT THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA REGIONAL

AIRPORT IN GRAND ISLAND WAS 90 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS

RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 2012. THIS IS ALSO THE EARLIEST 90

DEGREE DAY ON RECORD. THE PREVIOUS EARLIEST 90 DEGREE DAY WAS SET

MARCH 22ND 1907.

 

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY REPORT. AS TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE TO

INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...THE FINAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY WILL

BE SENT OUT IN LATER PRODUCTS.

 

TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GRAND ISLAND DATE BACK TO 1895

 

&&

 

THESE DATA ARE PRELIMINARY AND HAVE NOT UNDERGONE FINAL QUALITY

CONTROL BY THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER /NCDC/. THEREFORE...

THESE DATA ARE SUBJECT TO REVISION. FINAL AND CERTIFIED CLIMATE DATA

CAN BE ACCESSED AT WWW.NCDC.NOAA.GOV.

 

$$

[CentralNebWeather]

Cold front just went through. Blowing dust has clouded the sky. Looks like what the dust bowl would have looked like. Praying for rain.

[Geos]

That's crazy that there was 90° readings into Nebraska today! I would expect that maybe for OK or southern KS this early, but NE!?

 

70° for a high here today. Won't be long though before I have to shut the windows again.

A very colorful sunset tonight.

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Saw one location today in Nebraska was 90 degrees with 3% humidity. This is crazy desert like conditions.

[NEJeremy]

Quite the cold front passage. I left work at 6p to a west breeze and a temp of 89 on the car thermometer. While driving west about 4 miles heading home with a quick pit stop at the grocery store over a period of about 15 minutes, I noticed the flags were now stiff out of the due north and the temp dropped about 12 degrees rather rapidly. Winds have been gusting to 40 miles per hour and it's quickly cooled enough into the low 70s to open all the windows for a couple of hours before it gets too cool with the north wind overnight tonight. Tomorrow will feel rather cold with a high almost 40 degrees colder but still near average at 50 degrees.

 

Just saw our airport is reporting blowing dust with a visibility of 5 miles. No offense centralnebraskaweather, but I don't think this is anything compared to the Dust Bowl time period!! South central nebraska is the only area in Nebraska on the drought monitor and it is only at a D0- Abnormally dry level.

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?high_plains

[Geos]

Down in the mid 40s just up the shoreline now. 60s will be a distant memory soon.

 

Speaking of lack of rain, it hasn't rained here since January 3rd!

[CentralNebWeather]

None taken and I didn't mean to insinuate it was that severe as the 1930's, but it was enough to cloud the sky and drop the visibility which is sort of strange with the much improved farming techniques used today.

[gabel23]

The wife and I were on a walk with the daughter earlier today and seen the cold front blow on thru. It went from dead calm to blowing dust and strong north winds. Impressive heat this time of year with extremely dry air. A spread of 90/3 temp to dew point is very dry. Last time we had temps this warm in March we went from wet soil to extreme drought in a matter of a month and a half. That was back in 2012 when we had the driest July on record. Not saying that will happen this year; using the LRC this is the warm cyle. When the cold cycle hits, which is in a matter of a week or two, we will see some interesting weather around these parts. That's when the nao/ao are both forecasted to go negative.