March 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

All signs are pointing toward a milder spring actually. Maybe not the first couple weeks of March though.

Really?  Where do you see that?  If your following the CFSv2, it doesn't do well 2-3 months out.  In fact, the last 14 days are already trending colder than normal for April.  Watch the trends as you get closer to the "Target" month.  I would put my money on the JMA/JAMSTEC in the longer range seasonal outlooks.

[Tom]

12z Euro really digging the weekend system in the 4 corners region at 120 HR...

[Money]

850 mb line is just south of Chicago at hr 144

[Tom]

12z Euro...

[gabel23]

12z Euro...

Do you have the digital totals for that run??

[bud2380]

Man I wish we could just lock that in right now.

[Tom]

Do you have the digital totals for that run??

No, its based on 10:1 snow ratios.  Gotta figure that out on your own.  I think there are some ppl on here that have the actual Euro Snowfall #'s.

[Maxim]

Really? Where do you see that? If your following the CFSv2, it doesn't do well 2-3 months out. In fact, the last 14 days are already trending colder than normal for April. Watch the trends as you get closer to the "Target" month. I would put my money on the JMA/JAMSTEC in the longer range seasonal outlooks.

The cross-polar flow can't last forever. The western ridge will move westward to the Aleutians, which will cause the cross-polar flow to break down. Subsequently, a trough will form in the West. Meanwhile, a ridge will start developing further east and will slowly start expanding.

[Tom]

The cross-polar flow can't last forever. The western ridge will move westward to the Aleutians, which will cause the cross-polar flow to break down. Subsequently, a trough will form in the West. Meanwhile, a ridge will start developing further east and will slowly start expanding.

Sure there will be seasonal transitions but i don't think the overall pattern will flip that fast.  We will have to wait till sometime in April where the pattern can slowly get out of the Winter pattern.  Last year it wasn't till late April/May when the temps finally were enjoyable.

[Maxim]

Sure there will be seasonal transitions but i don't think the overall pattern will flip that fast.  We will have to wait till sometime in April where the pattern can slowly get out of the Winter pattern.  Last year it wasn't till late April/May when the temps finally were enjoyable.

It felt like Spring never came last year. Was like we went from winter to summer with only a couple weeks of enjoyable spring weather.

[gosaints]

Sure there will be seasonal transitions but i don't think the overall pattern will flip that fast.  We will have to wait till sometime in April where the pattern can slowly get out of the Winter pattern.  Last year it wasn't till late April/May when the temps finally were enjoyable.

This isnt last year.  Might be cold but not for the same reasons.  This season has been nothing like last year.  Except for one large storm in the central conus this winter has been a dud

[Tom]

This isnt last year.  Might be cold but not for the same reasons.  This season has been nothing like last year.  Except for one large storm in the central conus this winter has been a dud

I wasn't comparing Winter seasons, but instead making a comparison to what we may in fact expect this Spring.  This Spring the same main driver of the weather pattern seems to be in play with the warmer waters off the west coast driving the overall pattern.  There may be some "warmer" days mixed in, but I don't see sustained ridging in March around here.  Maybe more so down in the southern Plains/Midwest.

[gabel23]

No, its based on 10:1 snow ratios.  Gotta figure that out on your own.  I think there are some ppl on here that have the actual Euro Snowfall #'s.

yeah I know that but some people have the actual snow totals figured already. Didn't know if you were one of them or not! Either way it looks great, between 6-12" for a lot of us. 

[Tony]

Maybe this map might help with the ratios:

[james1976]

Maybe this map might help with the ratios:

Wow

[james1976]

What is GEM showing for the weekend?

[gosaints]

What is GEM showing for the weekend?

Not much

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022312/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022312/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022312/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

[jcwxguy]

with the gem not showing much, should we worry 

 

edit: just looks south

[Tom]

Both 12z Euro Ensembles/Control look identical to the operational...

[winterfreak]

GEM is wonderful down here. A man can dream.

[Iowawx]

GFS coming in strong with the weekend storm. 

[Grizzcoat]

48hr total-- it's still snowing at this time frame-

[james1976]

Id like it to come back north a bit. Still a long ways to go with this thing

[Grizzcoat]

DSM raw #'s for wkend system. Scary how close it is to the Euro.

SUN 00Z 01-MAR  -7.2    -7.2    1032      92      98    0.02     553     529    SUN 06Z 01-MAR  -5.3    -6.6    1030      97      99    0.12     555     532    SUN 12Z 01-MAR  -3.5    -5.8    1027      97      99    0.11     556     536    SUN 18Z 01-MAR  -1.0    -4.1    1023      96      99    0.15     557     539    MON 00Z 02-MAR  -1.9    -4.9    1022      97     100    0.30     555     538    MON 06Z 02-MAR  -7.4    -6.3    1026      93      81    0.04     554     534    MON 12Z 02-MAR -12.8    -7.0    1029      84      43    0.00     554     532 

[winterfreak]

Love a south shift lol I understand most here wouldn't. This looks to be my last chance to try and reach average season snowfall. Sitting at twelve inches on the season at the airport.

[jcwxguy]

 

DSM raw #'s for wkend system. Scary how close it is to the Euro.

SUN 00Z 01-MAR  -7.2    -7.2    1032      92      98    0.02     553     529    SUN 06Z 01-MAR  -5.3    -6.6    1030      97      99    0.12     555     532    SUN 12Z 01-MAR  -3.5    -5.8    1027      97      99    0.11     556     536    SUN 18Z 01-MAR  -1.0    -4.1    1023      96      99    0.15     557     539    MON 00Z 02-MAR  -1.9    -4.9    1022      97     100    0.30     555     538    MON 06Z 02-MAR  -7.4    -6.3    1026      93      81    0.04     554     534    MON 12Z 02-MAR -12.8    -7.0    1029      84      43    0.00     554     532 

could you show lincoln ?

 

gid had a very lengthy afd today  

[Tony]

Models have been "scary" consistent with this storm which is quite unusual. Hoping it gets wetter with each run.

[Grizzcoat]

LNK--

SUN 00Z 01-MAR  -4.4    -7.5    1028      97      99    0.05     554     532    SUN 06Z 01-MAR  -3.7    -4.1    1026      95      99    0.10     556     536    SUN 12Z 01-MAR  -3.8    -2.6    1023      98      99    0.16     557     539    SUN 18Z 01-MAR  -2.0    -3.2    1022      97      99    0.18     558     541    MON 00Z 02-MAR  -4.6    -5.1    1024      94      93    0.15     557     538    MON 06Z 02-MAR  -8.0    -6.3    1028      92      80    0.01     557     535    MON 12Z 02-MAR -10.2    -6.8    1029      88      94    0.01     555     533

[jcwxguy]

 

LNK--

SUN 00Z 01-MAR  -4.4    -7.5    1028      97      99    0.05     554     532    SUN 06Z 01-MAR  -3.7    -4.1    1026      95      99    0.10     556     536    SUN 12Z 01-MAR  -3.8    -2.6    1023      98      99    0.16     557     539    SUN 18Z 01-MAR  -2.0    -3.2    1022      97      99    0.18     558     541    MON 00Z 02-MAR  -4.6    -5.1    1024      94      93    0.15     557     538    MON 06Z 02-MAR  -8.0    -6.3    1028      92      80    0.01     557     535    MON 12Z 02-MAR -10.2    -6.8    1029      88      94    0.01     555     533

how about euro? 

[Seahawkfan]

Interesting 18 G.F.S Now it's looking as of right now we may be clipped by Wednesday clipper. This weekend storm looking to be all snow. Should be fun tracking this clipper plus weekend storm.

[Grizzcoat]

DSM EURO-

SAT 12Z 28-FEB  -9.4   -12.5    1034      79      95    0.02     548     522    SAT 18Z 28-FEB  -6.1    -9.4    1031      75      98    0.01     553     528    SUN 00Z 01-MAR  -5.0    -6.3    1026      91      99    0.18     554     534    SUN 06Z 01-MAR  -4.5    -5.1    1023      93     100    0.29     555     537    SUN 12Z 01-MAR  -4.2    -5.7    1021      94      99    0.13     555     539    SUN 18Z 01-MAR  -3.4    -6.4    1022      89      96    0.18     554     537    MON 00Z 02-MAR  -4.0    -9.2    1023      85      93    0.02     552     533    MON 06Z 02-MAR  -6.4   -11.5    1028      79      75    0.02     549     527 

LNK EURO

SAT 06Z 28-FEB  -7.7   -13.0    1032      58      99    0.03     545     520    SAT 12Z 28-FEB  -7.5   -10.8    1030      72      97    0.02     549     526    SAT 18Z 28-FEB  -3.7    -8.3    1027      74      96    0.08     552     531    SUN 00Z 01-MAR  -5.1    -7.3    1022      91      99    0.21     552     535    SUN 06Z 01-MAR  -5.4    -6.1    1022      95      99    0.20     554     537    SUN 12Z 01-MAR  -5.6    -7.5    1022      93      98    0.19     553     536    SUN 18Z 01-MAR  -4.9    -9.3    1025      86      89    0.02     553     534

[Seahawkfan]

Also looking maybe another storm or two beyond that. Could it be we pull a Boston? Time shall tell it be interesting to see how this late winter turns out.

[Money]

GFS Ensembles:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_18z/f168.gif

[jcwxguy]

anyone else think this may get pushed south a little bit? ( like the Canadian ) 

[Money]

anyone else think this may get pushed south a little bit? ( like the Canadian ) 

 

Anything is possible this far out, but I would say it's unlikely.

[Tom]

12z Euro Ensembles continue to look great for a lot of us on here.  In fact, I don't see a break in this pattern through at least the first 7-10 days of March.  Check out the 12z Euro Ensemble mean...

[Tom]

After looking at the 500mb pattern being depicted from the Euro Ensembles, it seems there would likely be an active storm track in the central CONUS over the next couple weeks.  This time of year, its expected to develop a stark thermal boundary that can produce some big storms.  Seems like the Winter of 2014-15 may finish off with a Bang and Backload the Snowfall.

 

Meantime, East Asian continues to get battered with storms/cold which will eventually translate into our part of the world.

[Tom]

The new Euro Weeklies are showing a "pull back" from the 11th-20th of the month.  Until then, let's enjoy the fun and games.

[winterfreak]

Hoping I can get one good event out of this pattern.