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3/1 - 3/3 Spring Storm Potential

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Over the past few days, models have been going back and forth as to what would happen with the lead wave over the weekend.  It looks like now there will be a stationary boundary that sets up over the central CONUS this weekend.  Models are still not in complete agreement what will happen with the 2nd piece of energy that is left back in the SW.  00z GFS has been trending towards a phase each run and seems like that may be a plausible solution as some of the more favorable teleconnections may support a system to slow and dig in the Plains/Midwest region.  Lot's of time to see how this one evolves BUT we may finally see a big Spring time storm next week.  Let's discuss.

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Tom
Tom

Took a look at the 12z Euro Ensembles and roughly 90% of its members have IA/S WI/IL/IN/MI in the heart of the heaviest snow accumulations.

Maxim
Maxim

You haven't seen the GFS then obviously

Money
Money

Thanks Frankie!  

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WildWisconsinWeather Newbie

WildWisconsinWeather

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Hopefully this can brew up to become a monster Spring storm....

 

It's eight days away, my goodness, it'll be a weak wave more likely than not in four or five days.  Obviously not punting, but a bit early for a thread on this (or perhaps keep this thread, but add a separate one if this is still showing up in three days).

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Money Proficient

Money

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It's eight days away, my goodness, it'll be a weak wave more likely than not in four or five days.  Obviously not punting, but a bit early for a thread on this (or perhaps keep this thread, but add a separate one if this is still showing up in three days).

 

Jesus christ WWW. This thread is supposed to be for the 1st system as well. Not just this big one. Hence the 1st-3rd 

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Money Proficient

Money

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It's eight days away, my goodness, it'll be a weak wave more likely than not in four or five days.  Obviously not punting, but a bit early for a thread on this (or perhaps keep this thread, but add a separate one if this is still showing up in three days).

 

You must think there's 31 days in Feb. March 1st is Sunday (5 days away) 

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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It's eight days away, my goodness, it'll be a weak wave more likely than not in four or five days.  Obviously not punting, but a bit early for a thread on this (or perhaps keep this thread, but add a separate one if this is still showing up in three days).

I kept them together for the purpose of keeping one main thread.  The weekend wave is weak but looks like it is related to the 2nd bigger piece.  We'll have to see how the models hand this overall threat.  GFS/EURO still show some appreciable snow in the Plains/Midwest from the 1st wave.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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00z Euro...some of the precip in IL/IN/MO is a mixed bag...850's to warm...Euro is looking like the GFS though and trying to phase this system as it develops in the Central CONUS and heads towards the Lower Lakes.  Should be fun tracking this storm.  Very complex situation.

 

 

Look at all that moisture....

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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It's really a close call in IA from being rain along and S of I-80--- thickness levels over 540 for the bulk-- but it's still sees it as snow...

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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jcwxguy Mentor

jcwxguy

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  40.85  LON =  -96.66

 

                                            00Z FEB25

                                2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000

                               TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500

                                   ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

   

MON 18Z 02-MAR   1.5    -7.4    1029      41      97    0.02     562     539    

TUE 00Z 03-MAR  -0.3    -6.0    1024      49      98    0.00     560     541    

TUE 06Z 03-MAR  -1.9    -4.0    1020      77      97    0.04     559     543    

TUE 12Z 03-MAR  -1.9    -1.5    1013      94      92    0.08     554     544    

TUE 18Z 03-MAR  -0.8    -0.7    1006      97      87    0.41     549     544    

WED 00Z 04-MAR  -1.4    -2.6    1001      97      88    0.17     540     539    

WED 06Z 04-MAR  -4.2    -5.6    1009      89      91    0.11     540     533    

WED 12Z 04-MAR  -7.3    -8.4    1015      86      46    0.00     542     531  

 

 

 

close.....

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Snowshoe Apprentice

Snowshoe

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00z Euro...some of the precip in IL/IN/MO is a mixed bag...850's to warm...Euro is looking like the GFS though and trying to phase this system as it develops in the Central CONUS and heads towards the Lower Lakes.  Should be fun tracking this storm.  Very complex situation.

 

 

Look at all that moisture....

 

Could this be the storm I've waited 3 months for! Fingers crossed!

WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin

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