bud2380 Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro really brings the snow much further south as the leading wing of precip moves through as mostly snow before transitioning to mixed precip in e iowa. Gfs much different although trended south on 6z run. We'll see what happens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 GFS Ensembles: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/f90.gif http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_6z/f120.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 12z NAM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_081_precip_p24.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 SREF plumes are generally in the 3-5 range in WI. Several members showing 6-10, and others showing just 1-2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 SREF plumes are generally in the 3-5 range in WI. Several members showing 6-10, and others showing just 1-2. Those are normally bullish, so not a good sign. First call for my area will be 2-4" on the front end, then some mixed precip that'll be annoying to drive in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 Those are normally bullish, so not a good sign. First call for my area will be 2-4" on the front end, then some mixed precip that'll be annoying to drive in. They only go out to HR 87 and it's snowing after that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 They only go out to HR 87 and it's snowing after that. Ok, I forgot that, which run is that, 09z? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 Srefs have sucked all winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 So quiet in here.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 GFS very similar to 6z. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif QPF http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_093_precip_p48.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 Sneaky warm layers. Good luck breaking 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 Sneaky warm layers. Good luck breaking 6 You are really negative when it comes to snow. Holy crap. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm thinking this storm will track right over Chicago and end up being a NE/N IA/WI special. Wisco may finally get their snowstorm of this Winter season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 12z GGEM...N IL most likely mixed this run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 You are really negative when it comes to snow. Holy crap.Its what models show but whatever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 THe 12Z GFS is about 6 hours faster then the previous runs-- doesn't allow as much cold air to wrap around. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 You are really negative when it comes to snow. Holy crap.I think the lack of storms is getting to you. Not sure you have to jump on me when about every piece of model data supports what I say Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 I guessing the Euro is even further North? Don't have Wxbell on this computer but from the 24 hr maps on Instant WX-- it seems N. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 Interesting, 12z Euro's 850's came in a little colder for N IL on the front end precip. I'd say from DSM/Clinton, IA/Kenosha, WI on north 850's stay below 0C. N IL may get some front end snow, then mix as ORD is border line. Ground temps pop up to 35F for a brief period Tuesday afternoon, then crash. Comparing the GFS to Euro, GFS is way more amped up then the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 Snowing lightly here already seems a little early then they said. Maybe a good sign? Be nice if we got closer to the 6 inches they were talking about a few das ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 My snow chances have diminished substantially for tomorrow. Bummer! Lets see what happens with Tuesday's storm. What a dull winter. Nothing but bitter cold and old snow from more than a month ago when we had the SB snowstorm and from previous clippers. Most of the action has been on the east coast. So much for a cold snowy winter. Its all BS. Mother nature will do what it wants. Meanwhile, the east coast might be looking at another winterstorm. NYC under a WWA for 3-6inches. Some ice is possible, but, they might be looking at an all snow event. Looking forward to some warmer weather too. I forget how 30s and 40s feel like. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 Almost all the 12z Euro Ensembles look good for WI/N IA. N IL is border line but if the weaker solution works out then I could see more snow than a mix. Not too many wound up solutions showing up like in recent days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 NAM increased the qpf up to .5-.75 for S.WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 12z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_084_precip_p48.gif 18z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_084_precip_p48.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 My snow chances have diminished substantially for tomorrow. Bummer! Lets see what happens with Tuesday's storm. What a dull winter. Nothing but bitter cold and old snow from more than a month ago when we had the SB snowstorm and from previous clippers. Most of the action has been on the east coast. So much for a cold snowy winter. Its all BS. Mother nature will do what it wants. Meanwhile, the east coast might be looking at another winterstorm. NYC under a WWA for 3-6inches. Some ice is possible, but, they might be looking at an all snow event. Looking forward to some warmer weather too. I forget how 30s and 40s feel like. Be happy you got a whopper of a storm, even if it was pretty much the only excitement of the winter. Fargo and Minneapolis would love to have seen a 6" storm (the snow lovers in those cities, that is). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 NAM increased the qpf up to .5-.75 for S.WI I don't put much stock in the off hour NAM runs (and actually most of the other models had around .5" QPF anyway). It definitely looks much better to keep things all snow than it did a day or two ago, when I was anxiously worrying about a NW trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 18z NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 Gfs coming in wetter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 Be happy you got a whopper of a storm, even if it was pretty much the only excitement of the winter. Fargo and Minneapolis would love to have seen a 6" storm (the snow lovers in those cities, that is).I hear ya, its one of those winters I guess where it wants to snow but ends up not happening. Look, tomorrow is March 1st. In a week or 2 at the most, I am done with winter. The cold is getting too old now. Anything after that is slopfest. Looking forward to Spring!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 18z GFS...talking about a "Cheddar Curtain" cutoff... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 Hope the gfs scores a coup by far the most generous with the snow shield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 This storm has the potential to be be Wisconsin's first widespread snowstorm. Hopefully the GFS is on to something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 RPM model has all of N IL starting with snow and keeps northern counties of IL all Snow with a rain/snow mix near ORD/transitions to rain from city on south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 Good luck gfs crapped itself on the clipper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 Good luck gfs crapped itself on the clipper.Overall the GFS has been one of the more accurate models this winter though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 The NAM did a good job on the first wave's location of snow even at it's beginning. It never really had snow up here in Nebraska, and no snow is what we got Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 Overall the GFS has been one of the more accurate models this winter though. Not really, only on the rare occasion we've had a strong system this winter. GFS has had the tendency to overamp and have too much moisture associated with most of the winter events. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 That's not saying much this winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 C IL/INDY getting their second weekend snow in a row. Wonder how those areas are doing with their season snowfall totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 Overall the GFS has been one of the more accurate models this winter though.nah, I'd say Ukie has been pretty solid lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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