March 2015 PNW Discussion

[stuffradio]

The Lion is still locked up. The Lamb likely gets to waltz around for most of the month!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Later I'll post my stats from March 2012. 

[richard mann]

The Lion is still locked up. The Lamb likely gets to waltz around for most of the month!

 

.. Things looking fairly at least "robust", yesterday into evening here more south. ... Here along with then and even still into today where looking more North to more Central and Southern OR. And to Alaska more currently. 

 

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=72792

 http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=72838 / http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=72827

  http://theweatherfor...through-alaska/

 

— More basic instability still in place and continuing to move more south of where I am.  http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

 

And then beyond this where looking ahead and relative to what I've projected colder air mass focused, more broadly, more generally, .. With (per my more general impression) colder air's continued general expansion south over the next two weeks or so, looked at along with its if more variable pace east, I'm seeing some at least amount of decent potential for some, more both cold and precip..

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/817-later-winter-2014-15-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=72197

 

— Continued, new and fresh cold from the north, moving more directly south more for the next few days, patterning more meridional. With then that cold's beginning to move more zonally east, potentially working to position main moisture better south, toward its then being allowed to migrate better more northward while still being pressed on by degrees at the same time by colder air, slowing its pace more, where moving more eastward from the 6th forward.

[Skagit Weather]

Well we start another new month here in the Pacific Northwest. Only two months left to make up some of the snow pack before we risk serious water problems during the summer.

 

This image was taken by a friend at the lower Mount Baker lodge last weekend. A slight lack of snow.

 

[richard mann]

.. "Late", "Fat", .. Spring. (?)

[stuffradio]

CFSv2 shows warn and dry next month. I'm doing a run next month. Hopefully temps are only 60-70F max.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

March starts out with a low of 27 at SLE. Chilly for March!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For PDX this winter narrowly edged out 1958 for warmest on record. SLE ended up tied with 1934.

 

Interestingly back east this was the coldest February since.... 1934.

[stuffradio]

March starts out with a low of 27 at SLE. Chilly for March!

At hour 288/300 there could be slush!

[Jesse]

20s this morning!

 

Lousy Smarch weather...

[Brennan]

That shot from Mt Baker makes it look like June. Incredible. They even exaggerate the snowpack on the website!!

[stuffradio]

Actually, Meteostar is still on the 00z... and they want people to pay for that.

[HighlandExperience]

That shot from Mt Baker makes it look like June. Incredible. They even exaggerate the snowpack on the website!!

 

Ya it is interesting how deceptive Mt. Baker has been this season. If you were to go to their website you would never realize how truly dismal there normally stellar snowpack looks. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As I mentioned Yesterday I hiked to the top of Table Rock yesterday. Table Rock is located about an hour southeast of Portland in the western cascades and the summit has an elevation of 4,888'. The only snow on the mountain was what had fallen the night before and was no deeper than 4" at the most. Amazingly I actually hiked to the top last year on January 5th and the summit was completely bare. However, by this time last year the summit had been buried in several feet of snow as the snowpack recovered a little bit as we moved into spring. When I hiked up it on July 4, 2011 there were drifts several feet deep covering the trail in many locations. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Crater Lake has their lowest snow depth ever for this point in the season. Only 28" on the ground. Interestingly their precip is slightly above normal. 

 

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2015/03/crater_lake_snow_drops.html#incart_river

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX dropped to 30 this morning. SLE and EUG hit 26. 24 here IMBY.

[Jesse]

PDX dropped to 30 this morning. SLE and EUG hit 26. 24 here IMBY.

 

I think that's their coldest temp since early January.

[Jesse]

So the Meteostar site is no longer available to non-payers? Lame...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A little comparison between this winter and the winter of 1933-34 at SLE. 

 

2014-15

sub-freezing minimums: 16

Precip: 14.41

Seasonal minimum: 22

 

1933-34

Sub-freezing minimums: 11

Precip: 25.53

Seasonal minimum: 27

 

Interesting to note that Dec-Jan 1933-34 only had 3 sub freezing lows while this past winter had 13 at SLE. 33-34 made up some ground in February which though a very warm dry month, had a few nights with some decent radiational cooling. 

 

There was nothing in 33-34 that was even similar to our little cool snap around new years. December 1933 was a ridiculously wet as well...

 

March 1934 was very warm with a run of five straight highs in the 70s during the first half of the month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So the Meteostar site is no longer available to non-payers? Lame...

 

Yeah it is. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think that's their coldest temp since early January.

 

The 26 at SLE is their coldest temp since January 2nd. Also the coldest March reading since March 7, 2012. 

[Jesse]

Yeah it is. 

 

It hasn't updated since the 00Z from what I can tell.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It hasn't updated since the 00Z from what I can tell.

 

It is now.

[Jesse]

A little comparison between this winter and the winter of 1933-34 at SLE. 

 

2014-15

sub-freezing minimums: 16

Precip: 14.41

Seasonal minimum: 22

 

1933-34

Sub-freezing minimums: 11

Precip: 25.53

Seasonal minimum: 27

 

Interesting to note that Dec-Jan 1933-34 only had 3 sub freezing lows while this past winter had 13 at SLE. 33-34 made up some ground in February which though a very warm dry month, had a few nights with some decent radiational cooling. 

 

There was nothing in 33-34 that was even similar to our little cool snap around new years. December 1933 was a ridiculously wet as well...

 

March 1934 was very warm with a run of five straight highs in the 70s during the first half of the month. 

 

Were they exactly tied as far as average temp?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Were they exactly tied as far as average temp?

 

That is my understanding yes.

 

60+ highs

 

February 2015: 9

February 1934: 7

 

 

Interestingly both previous winters had significant arctic outbreaks in December and February. 

 

The winter of 34-35 was not cold by any means at SLE at least, but they did have 10" of snow in January with a decent cold snap. Though the monthly 47/32 split was a bit above the historical averages at the time. 

[Jesse]

It is now.

Looks chilly the next few days. 850s to -7 over DLS on Tuesday. I could see a high in the 40s DESPITE the March sunshine!

[Jesse]

So strange how basically all of our anomalous cool periods the last few months have occurred with the same general pattern. No chilly onshore flow whatsoever, just glancing blows from cold, very dry air to our east.

 

Also, they have all occurred around the turn of the calendar month. Every ~30 days on the button starting with early September. The only outlier was the mid-November period.

[Front Ranger]

So strange how basically all of our anomalous cool periods the last few months have occurred with the same general pattern. No chilly onshore flow whatsoever, just glancing blows from cold, very dry air to our east.

 

Also, they have all occurred around the turn of the calendar month. Every ~30 days on the button starting with early September. The only outlier was the mid-November period.

 

Yup, the blocking patterns this cold season have been remarkable similar, with upper level ridging either on or right off the west coast of NA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z Ensembles

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Jesse]

Maybe there is some small hope that March can avoid top warm territory.

[Skagit Weather]

That shot from Mt Baker makes it look like June. Incredible. They even exaggerate the snowpack on the website!!

 

It's not as bad as it sounds because this is the lower lodge and the 21" they have reported is actually the base at the upper lodge, but still pretty sad.

 

Here are the updated stats from today for the mountains.

 

Almost all the Washington mountains are at record lows.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As promised here are my stats from March 2012. The biggest thing that struck me was how overall though it was a cool March there was really no appreciable "cold" weather, even really by March standards. March 2008 and 2009 were definitely colder up here. 

 

Max Min Precip SN

 

44/30  0.41  4.75"

44/32  0.08

53/36  0.07

54/32    0

41/31  0.64   T

40/28  0.04  0.75"

46/23    0

66/30    0

63/32  0.12

46/40  1.00

37/32  0.32   0.25"

46/31  1.86   2.5"

39/30  0.84"  7.75"

43/31  0.76     T

47/43  2.48

51/35  0.55

42/32  0.59  2.5"

38/26  0.22  0.75"

39/26  0.35  0.75"

43/32  2.03  2.5"

36/30  1.83  12.75"

46/30    -      4.5"

46/26    0

56/32  0.03

46/33  0.07

51/29  0.11

55/42  0.41

49/38  0.53

50/39  2.58

49/32  1.83

49/35  0.90

[stuffradio]

So the Meteostar site is no longer available to non-payers? Lame...

They updated it to be free until May now.

[TT-SEA]

As promised here are my stats from March 2012. The biggest thing that struck me was how overall though it was a cool March there was really no appreciable "cold" weather, even really by March standards. March 2008 and 2009 were definitely colder up here. 

 

Max Min Precip SN

 

44/30  0.41  4.75"

44/32  0.08

53/36  0.07

54/32    0

41/31  0.64   T

40/28  0.04  0.75"

46/23    0

66/30    0

63/32  0.12

46/40  1.00

37/32  0.32   0.25"

46/31  1.86   2.5"

39/30  0.84"  7.75"

43/31  0.76     T

47/43  2.48

51/35  0.55

42/32  0.59  2.5"

38/26  0.22  0.75"

39/26  0.35  0.75"

43/32  2.03  2.5"

36/30  1.83  12.75"

46/30    -      4.5"

46/26    0

56/32  0.03

46/33  0.07

51/29  0.11

55/42  0.41

49/38  0.53

50/39  2.58

49/32  1.83

49/35  0.90

 

 

Looks like a total mess of a month.   

 

You are really obsessed with that month by the way.  

[BLI snowman]

Been exactly a year since Bellingham's last sticking snow. 

[Skagit Weather]

Been exactly a year since Bellingham's last sticking snow. 

 

How many years have there been with no snow at BLI?

[ShawniganLake]

Maybe there is some small hope that March can avoid top warm territory.

I don't think it will be close. Its going to be much closer to average this month.

[BLI snowman]

How many years have there been with no snow at BLI?

 

Only three of them since 1949 (1957-58, 1960-61, 1982-83), four if you count 2012-13 which may not have had accumulations at the airport but they weren't measuring it there anymore.

[Deweydog]

Been exactly a year since Bellingham's last sticking snow.

Only three to go!

[Jesse]

I don't think it will be close. Its going to be much closer to average this month.

I think I remember people saying that about February too.