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March 2015 PNW Discussion

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#451
richard mann

Posted 09 March 2015 - 11:50 PM

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-
Cliff Mass's look ahead at things more promising. 
 
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/03/rain-returns.html


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#452
Phil

Posted 10 March 2015 - 12:41 AM

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Euro weeklies are lol-worthy. Same pattern we've seen all winter right into the start of April (+PNA/-EPO/+NAO). Ridiculously warm in the west, ridiculously cold in the east, especially during weeks 3-4..
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#453
Phil

Posted 10 March 2015 - 12:49 AM

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Recent +NAM spike broke the all time March record by a good margin. This coming only two years after we smashed the March -NAM record, and four years since we broke the all time -NAM record. Can someone say "unstable"?

Winter 2014-15:

- Record breaking +NAM
- Record breaking -QBO
- Record breaking +PDO
- Record breaking MJO/CCKW coupling? Big synchronization should occur during week two..

03UEkG.jpg

ZhgG5n.jpg

T9gaea.jpg

RCDwuF.jpg
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#454
IbrChris

Posted 10 March 2015 - 03:34 AM

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Recent +NAM spike broke the all time March record by a good margin. This coming only two years after we smashed the March -NAM record, and four years since we broke the all time -NAM record. Can someone say "unstable"?

Winter 2014-15:

- Record breaking +NAM
- Record breaking -QBO
- Record breaking +PDO
- Record breaking MJO/CCKW coupling? Big synchronization should occur during week two..

03UEkG.jpg

ZhgG5n.jpg

T9gaea.jpg

RCDwuF.jpg

That is an impressive MJO and in a favorable phase for an AR event (Atmospheric River event) somewhere along the west coast in 10-14 days.


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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.


#455
HighlandExperience

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:30 AM

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Could be an absolutely devastating fire season this year with Cascade snow already at historically low levels and an early starting spring in the works. Things will be drying out quickly.

 

I was thinking the same thing. I've made quite a few trips to the Central Cascades for climbing and it looks like the end of June (not the end of March).

 

In fact some locations on the west slopes of the Cascades have less snow, than they normally have in early July!! Everything below 5 K is bare. Truly a remarkable season for lack of snow.


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#456
BLI snowman

Posted 10 March 2015 - 09:44 AM

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Those months were pretty different, in terms of how they ended up across the board. Oct 2014 was absolutely the warmest Oct most of the PNW has on record. No question.

 

Feb 2015? Not so much. The low hanging fruit UHI-enhanced spots hit it, but it certainly was not a record warm Feb for most of the PNW overall.

 

WA did have its warmest February on record. OR came in 3rd.



#457
Deweydog

Posted 10 March 2015 - 09:54 AM

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WA did have its warmest February on record. OR came in 3rd.


I'm curious if the +6.2 at Bellingham would be called "low hanging fruit" if there were a "-" in front.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#458
BLI snowman

Posted 10 March 2015 - 10:11 AM

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I'm curious if the +6.2 at Bellingham would be called "low hanging fruit" if there were a "-" in front.

 

You already know the answer to that!



#459
TT-SEA

Posted 10 March 2015 - 11:11 AM

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12Z ECMWF says that we might get most of the normal rain for all of March this coming weekend.

 

Continuing the theme of long dry periods punctuated with warm, heavy rain.   

 

We will be in Palm Springs starting very early tomorrow morning and will miss out on all the rain this weekend.    But thinking when we return later next week the vegetation will have leaped forward with all the sun and warmth lately and then lots of warm rain.



#460
Jesse

Posted 10 March 2015 - 12:22 PM

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WA did have its warmest February on record. OR came in 3rd.


Low hanging fruit bruh.

#461
Jesse

Posted 10 March 2015 - 12:28 PM

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I was thinking the same thing. I've made quite a few trips to the Central Cascades for climbing and it looks like the end of June (not the end of March).

In fact some locations on the west slopes of the Cascades have less snow, than they normally have in early July!! Everything below 5 K is bare. Truly a remarkable season for lack of snow.


It's incredibly bad up there.

#462
bainbridgekid

Posted 10 March 2015 - 12:32 PM

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It's incredibly bad up there.

Hurricane Ridge back to having zero snow at 5,242 feet.

 

Been like this almost all Winter.

 

current_ridgecam.jpg?2015210133136


Mountlake Terrace 2017-18 snowfall:

 

11/3: 0.25"

11/5: 0.25"

12/24: 4"

2/18: 0.5"

2/21: 1"

2/25: 1"

3/23: 0.25"

 

Total: 7.25"

 

 


#463
Deweydog

Posted 10 March 2015 - 02:12 PM

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12Z ECMWF says that we might get most of the normal rain for all of March this coming weekend.

Continuing the theme of long dry periods punctuated with warm, heavy rain.

We will be in Palm Springs starting very early tomorrow morning and will miss out on all the rain this weekend. But thinking when we return later next week the vegetation will have leaped forward with all the sun and warmth lately and then lots of warm rain.


Your vegetation will be in our thoughts and prayers.

#northbendstrong
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#464
richard mann

Posted 10 March 2015 - 02:17 PM

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That is an impressive MJO .. and in a favorable phase for an AR event (Atmospheric River event) somewhere along the west coast in 10-14 days.

 
.. Should I ask why that would be, more specifically, here. ? .. Or perhaps route to my question (repeated) over in the main "MJO" thread. ?  @


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#465
TT-SEA

Posted 10 March 2015 - 02:17 PM

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Your vegetation will be in our thoughts and prayers.

#northbendstrong


Some rain would be good now.

#466
Deweydog

Posted 10 March 2015 - 02:18 PM

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Some rain would be good now.


Indeed.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#467
BLI snowman

Posted 10 March 2015 - 02:22 PM

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Our climate really is turning into Scottsdale lite. 



#468
richard mann

Posted 10 March 2015 - 02:29 PM

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.. If more multi-year, I'd still say, only where considering the shorter term through to this point.  

 

And basically, with not much main cold having set up more this year, better more upstream NNW to WNW. And then with where looking at the past two years, the main glut and wealth of more primary cold stores having set up through Northern / Northeastern Canadian. (Not very well over Northern Asia. Even Alaska.)

 

"Cold" Blocking more downstream, both years. Less cold upstream at all this past winter. More extended drought CA, and warmer North, with precip. more substantial, only on a more sporadic basis. (Hit and miss.)


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#469
Deweydog

Posted 10 March 2015 - 02:29 PM

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Our climate really is turning into Scottsdale lite.


Bring on the haboobs!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#470
richard mann

Posted 10 March 2015 - 02:40 PM

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Route 66 North.


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#471
Jesse

Posted 10 March 2015 - 03:15 PM

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Hurricane Ridge back to having zero snow at 5,242 feet.

Been like this almost all Winter.

current_ridgecam.jpg?2015210133136


Dead sexy.

#472
Jesse

Posted 10 March 2015 - 03:16 PM

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Indeed.


But softball!
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#473
Deweydog

Posted 10 March 2015 - 03:45 PM

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But softball!


AND baseball!!!

#hockinsonstrong

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#474
TT-SEA

Posted 10 March 2015 - 04:29 PM

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AND baseball!!!

#hockinsonstrong

 

Softball?    Some people can't even pretend to talk sports.  :)



#475
bainbridgekid

Posted 10 March 2015 - 05:37 PM

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Dead sexy.

Still waiting for a chance to go snow shoeing this Winter. I'm thinking Paradise is going to be my only chance.

 

Oh and speaking of sexy . . .

 

tsfc.84.0000.gif


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Mountlake Terrace 2017-18 snowfall:

 

11/3: 0.25"

11/5: 0.25"

12/24: 4"

2/18: 0.5"

2/21: 1"

2/25: 1"

3/23: 0.25"

 

Total: 7.25"

 

 


#476
GHweatherChris

Posted 10 March 2015 - 06:50 PM

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Very sharp cold front on IR.  It does not look like rain will last very long with this storm.



#477
TT-SEA

Posted 10 March 2015 - 07:17 PM

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Very sharp cold front on IR. It does not look like rain will last very long with this storm.


That is just the high and mid clouds... lots of lower stuff past that line. You will have rain most of the day tomorrow.

#478
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 10 March 2015 - 07:22 PM

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By mid-April the foliage and shrubs up here will be at about mid-June 2011 growth levels. 


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#479
GHweatherChris

Posted 10 March 2015 - 07:30 PM

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That is just the high and mid clouds... lots of lower stuff past that line. You will have rain most of the day tomorrow.

We shall see.



#480
TT-SEA

Posted 10 March 2015 - 07:46 PM

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We shall see.


Every model shows it... will happen.

#481
GHweatherChris

Posted 10 March 2015 - 07:52 PM

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Every model shows it... will happen.

We shall see.



#482
TT-SEA

Posted 10 March 2015 - 07:59 PM

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We shall see.

 

Here is rainfall through 5 p.m. tomorrow.

 

ww_pcp24.36.0000.gif



#483
TT-SEA

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:00 PM

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And cloud cover at 8 a.m. tomorrow.   As you can see... lots of low stuff that will stick around way after the high and mid level stuff is long gone.

 

intcld.15.0000.gif

 

 

Watch the full loop... rainy and cloudy all day out there.  

 

http://www.atmos.was... 2015031100///3



#484
GHweatherChris

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:03 PM

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Here is rainfall through 5 p.m. tomorrow.

 

ww_pcp24.36.0000.gif

Definitely not a drencher.



#485
GHweatherChris

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:03 PM

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And cloud cover at 8 a.m. tomorrow.   As you can see... lots of low stuff that will stick around way after the high and mid level stuff is long gone.

 

intcld.15.0000.gif

Thanks for the education genius.  It will be cloudy all day tomorrow, it will not be all that wet overall though.



#486
TT-SEA

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:06 PM

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Definitely not a drencher.

 

 

No... but the rain will continue until tomorrow evening.   Its not ending when that line passes.   Its not really even starting until after that.  That sharp line is about to pass the coast very soon here.



#487
GHweatherChris

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:07 PM

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No... but the rain will continue until tomorrow evening.   Its not ending when that line passes.   Its not really even starting until after that.

We shall see as I said, I bet rain gear will me minimally needed for me tomorrow.



#488
TT-SEA

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:12 PM

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We shall see as I said, I bet rain gear will me minimally needed for me tomorrow.

 

 

OK.   But it will be raining.   You implied that the rain would not last long at all because of the sharp line on the IR satellite but 24 hours from now it will be still be raining around the area... about 23 hours after that line has passed.   :)

 

This is not a well-defined cold front at all.   Its an occluded front that will wash out over us.



#489
Deweydog

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:14 PM

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We shall see as I said, I bet rain gear will me minimally needed for me tomorrow.


Tomorrow won't be a gully washer, but the sharp line on the IR is not indicative of what will or won't happen tomorrow.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#490
GHweatherChris

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:15 PM

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OK.   But it will be raining.   You implied that the rain would not last long at all because of the sharp line on the IR satellite but 24 hours from now it will be still be raining around the area... about 23 hours after that line has passed.  

Tolerable rain is ok.



#491
GHweatherChris

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:15 PM

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Tomorrow won't be a gully washer, but the sharp line on the IR is not indicative of what will or won't happen tomorrow.

God d**n, I am not a f***** idiot.  

 

However, it will rain longer inland than here.



#492
TT-SEA

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:16 PM

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Tolerable rain is ok.

 

Sort of missing the point... I was commenting that your original statement was wrong on a couple levels.

 

Very sharp cold front on IR.  It does not look like rain will last very long with this storm.

 


#493
TT-SEA

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:18 PM

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God D**n, I am not a ******* idiot.  

 

However, it will rain longer inland than here.

 

 

Actually no... sort of focuses over your area tomorrow as the front washes out.   I wish it would rain more out here but it seems to be all west of the Sound tomorrow.   

 

Seattle and Bellingham might not get much at all for a good part of the day... even some sun breaks.   While its raining west of Olympia.  It does make it inland later tomorrow evening but not sure how much because the trend has been weaker and farther west. 

 

Here is 2 p.m.

 

ww_pcp1.21.0000.gif

 

 

Then it limps inland by 8 p.m. and it still raining in your area.

 

ww_pcp1.27.0000.gif



#494
GHweatherChris

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:20 PM

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Sort of missing the point... I was commenting that your original statement was wrong on a couple levels.

How can something be wrong when it hasn't happened yet.  Your the one who brought up the models.

 

Tomorrow will not be a bad day at all.



#495
Deweydog

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:20 PM

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God D**n, I am not a ******* idiot.

However, it will rain longer inland than here.


Oker dokers.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#496
TT-SEA

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:24 PM

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How can something be wrong when it hasn't happened yet.  Your the one who brought up the models.

 

Tomorrow will not be a bad day at all.

 

 

Even if it rains all day there... you will say it was nice.

 

Not the point though.    It will rain longer and more in your area tonight and tomorrow.   And it will likely rain most of the day out there... so call it what you want.   That is not why I even commented on it.



#497
GHweatherChris

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:26 PM

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Even if it rains all day there... you will say it was nice.

 

Not the point though.    It will rain longer and more in your area tonight and tomorrow.   And it will likely rain most of the day out there... so call it what you want.   That is not why I even commented on it.

I was basing my post on IR, you felt the need to go on a rant about what the models showed.

 

I never said it wasn't going to rain all day, just that it looked like it wouldn't looking at IR.

 

But thank you so much for the lesson Mr. Tim.

 

I still stand on the fact it will be tolerable though.



#498
TT-SEA

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:28 PM

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I was basing my post on IR, you felt the need to go on a rant about what the models showed.

 

I never said it wasn't going to rain all day, just that it looked like it wouldn't looking at IR.

 

But thank you so much for the lesson Mr. Tim.

 

I still stand on the fact it will be tolerable though.

 

 

Perfect.   You would call 45 mph wind and sideways rain and a temp of 38 tolerable.   :)

 

Tomorrow will be heaven for you.  

 

Never cared about your grade for the day tomorrow.    Not the point.



#499
GHweatherChris

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:31 PM

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Perfect.   You would call 45 mph wind and sideways rain and a temp of 38 tolerable.   :)

 

Tomorrow will be heaven for you.  

 

Never cared about your grade for the day tomorrow.    Not the point.

Hmm, interesting.

 

Assumption has a very key word in it.



#500
Deweydog

Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:32 PM

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I was basing my post on IR, you felt the need to go on a rant about what the models showed.

I never said it wasn't going to rain all day, just that it looked like it wouldn't looking at IR.

But thank you so much for the lesson Mr. Tim.

I still stand on the fact it will be tolerable though.


You do know how an IR satellite image works, right?

All roads lead to Walgreens.