March 2015 PNW Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene had their 6th sub-freezing low of the month today. If they aren't careful March may have more than January and February combined.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Also I'm done complaining about gorgeous weather like this. This is glorious, can't get enough. 

[bainbridgekid]

Eugene had their 6th sub-freezing low of the month today. If they aren't careful March may have more than January and February combined.

A 66ish/31 day will looks pretty good.

[bainbridgekid]

Friday looks very warm on the WRF

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_tsfc.132.0000.gif

[richard mann]

... done complaining about gorgeous weather like this. This is glorious, can't get enough.

 

.. No "complaints" perse, here where I am a bit more south.

 

But with working to keep things in perspective, .... There are things to think about.

 

http://www.strawhayrental.com/

[Phil]

Man, a bit hard to fathom this:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/dgkhpq/640.jpg

[Deweydog]

Man, a bit hard to fathom this:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/dgkhpq/640.jpg

Yeah, it definitely makes you wonder who's minding the store? Hello congress???

[richard mann]

Man, a bit hard to fathom this:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/dgkhpq/640.jpg

The main elements left, are Dates: from 5 weeks or so ago, to about 4(6) days from this point. The main elements bottom, are representative of "Longitude", associable with the 5°S-5°N Latitude idea otherwise indicative of scope within the graphic's main heading.

 

These ideas, with then the color-coded spectrum element below the main graphic depiction, arranged more incrementally, being meant to be referred to where working to note both, the general and if changing, state of more anomalous, where set against more normal strength winds (in "meters/second") where considering the scope represented, more Before the Forecast here—i.e. more, through to the beginning of the forecast's main starting point, noted as having been Mar. 8th (Most likely at 00z.) by the line running through the graphic—and then, more beyond this point, the potential more, where considering more "anomalous" strength winds, where considering this same scope, out through the 15th of March.

 

"hPa" is an acronym that stands for "Hecto-Pascals"; equivalent to "Milli-bars" directly. "200 hPa", then being 100mbs above, the main 300mb pressure level height. 

[bainbridgekid]

69 at PDX, SLE and TTD today.

 

Hillsboro hit at least 71!

 

Plenty of unofficial 72-74 degree readings in SW Washington and Western Oregon.

A 66ish/31 day will looks pretty good.

Make that exactly 66/31. Sexy.

[HighlandExperience]

Many places in NW Oregon and SW Washington should have a shot at their first 70 of the season today.

 

Unfortunately Mt. Baker ski resort closed down today. You know it is a bad season when Baker has barely any snow. 

[Jesse]

Unfortunately Mt. Baker ski resort closed down today. You know it is a bad  sexy season when Baker has barely any snow. 

 

Fixed it for you. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fixed it for you. 

 

Lots of Bikinis and Speedos up on the slopes today!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS is looking decidedly wetter the past several runs...We've seen this **** tease before!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was reading on oregonlive.com that Mt. Ashland has been open for a decent amount this year in Southern Oregon after not being able to open at all last winter! This is a 6300' base ski area, so its amazing they couldn't even open last winter. Its been a pretty lackluster year for them, but they are just happy to be open. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This accomplishment deserves a huge asterisk. They would have had a harder time hiking it during the summer of 2008....

 

 http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2015/03/pacific_crest_trail_hiked_in_e.html#incart_2box

[Jesse]

This accomplishment deserves a huge asterisk. They would have had a harder time hiking it during the summer of 2008....

 

 http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2015/03/pacific_crest_trail_hiked_in_e.html#incart_2box

 

I was reading about that.

 

They definitely picked a good winter for it. Warmest on record for two of the three states the PCT traverses. Second warmest for Oregon.

 

Hopefully this doesn't embolden too many copycats in the coming years, because even an average winter along the PCT would be exponentially tougher than this one.

[HighlandExperience]

This accomplishment deserves a huge asterisk. They would have had a harder time hiking it during the summer of 2008....

 

 http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2015/03/pacific_crest_trail_hiked_in_e.html#incart_2box

 

Meh.. I am not that impressed with their "accomplishment". For starters they broke the PCT up, so that they could do the harder sections before the heavier winter snows. I will have to go back and read the details of their trip, but that was my understanding from talking to other people. 

[Jesse]

Meh.. I am not that impressed with their "accomplishment". For starters they broke the PCT up, so that they could do the harder sections before the heavier winter snows. I will have to go back and read the details of their trip, but that was my understanding from talking to other people. 

 

I think they did it north to south to get through Washington and Northern Oregon before the heavy snows hit. Which is understandable. The thing is they never hit.

 

Apparently coming from Truckee they were more familiar with the terrain of the Sierras in the winter, so they figured they would do that in the snowier (on average) later parts of the season. They were probably treated to quite a nice traverse of the High Sierra, with wall to wall sunshine most days and a relatively light snow pack. 

[TT-SEA]

SSTA comparison...

 

3/9/15:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.3.9.2015.gif

 

 

3/10/14:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.3.10.2014.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think they did it north to south to get through Washington and Northern Oregon before the heavy snows hit. Which is understandable. The thing is they never hit.

 

Apparently coming from Truckee they were more familiar with the terrain of the Sierras in the winter, so they figured they would do that in the snowier (on average) later parts of the season. They were probably treated to quite a nice traverse of the High Sierra, with wall to wall sunshine most days and a relatively light snow pack. 

 

When my friends did the PCT in 2008 they said there was 8-10' of snow in many parts of the Sierra in July....

 

They also said the Oregon stretch is by far the most boring as in Oregon it was designed to avoid many of the more popular heavily trafficked areas. They hit Oregon during peak mosquito season too. Most their time in Washington that year was in September which they said was horrible from a rain/clouds perspective. 

[Jesse]

When my friends did the PCT in 2008 they said there was 8-10' of snow in many parts of the Sierra in July....

 

They also said the Oregon stretch is by far the most boring as in Oregon it was designed to avoid many of the more popular heavily trafficked areas. They hit Oregon during peak mosquito season too. Most their time in Washington that year was in September which they said was horrible from a rain/clouds perspective.

Yikes. Sounds like an awesome trip.

 

Thru-hiking the PCT at some point is actually on my bucket list. I've managed to string together a couple hundred miles of the trail over the years. By far my favorite backpack along it was a 60 mile stretch my Dad and I did between Mount Adams and White Pass in August 2006. The Goat Rocks are incredible.

 

It's a shame they re-routed so much of the trail in Oregon. The original Oregon Skyline trail hit all of the beautiful spots. There are still nice stretches. The traverse of Jefferson is stunning, and there are some high points around the Sisters and Crater Lake.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yikes. Sounds like an awesome trip.

 

Thru-hiking the PCT at some point is actually on my bucket list. I've managed to string together a couple hundred miles of the trail over the years. By far my favorite backpack along it was a 60 mile stretch my Dad and I did between Mount Adams and White Pass in August 2006. The Goat Rocks are incredible.

 

It's a shame they re-routed so much of the trail in Oregon. The original Oregon Skyline trail hit all of the beautiful spots. There are still nice stretches. The traverse of Jefferson is stunning, and there are some high points around the Sisters and Crater Lake.

 

I'm tired this morning so the thought of doing the PCT doesn't sound that appealing at the moment, it sounds exhausting. But seriously I've thought about it. Just doubt I'll ever have the time to devote to doing that, at least in one shot. My friends hit it at the perfect time. They both just graduated from college, just had gotten married and had a job waiting for them at Bachelor for the 2008 winter season as ski instructors. So they had like a 4-6 month window with no commitments (except to each other of course!). I'm past that stage in my life now, there is no way I'd have the opportunity in the next 20-25 years. Maybe my daughter will want to hike it with me when she graduates from college or something. That would be pretty awesome. 

[epiceast]

And here is me sitting thinking that winning the Enchantments lottery is a big accomplishment...

[DareDuck]

Started off a few degrees warmer this morning in Eug at 35 instead of 31 and we're up to 58 now, could be a little bit warmer here than the past couple days.

[richard mann]

SSTA comparison...

 

3/9/15: /  3/10/14:

 

If .. not looked at as an .... if granted more interesting, more incidental "coincidence", .. your comparison could, be looked at as perhaps some type of ENSO cycle, "peak"('s .. having occurred back in earlier December. 

 

— To some degree also perhaps, working to explain the more significant cut-off where looking at conditions from December to January. And with general conditions looked at more widely, of course already having been looking fairly "odd", from the point where the "building" Nino more, had started to degrade more "late" Spring. 

 

Just idle pondering here, nothing more really. 

[Deweydog]

Good to see global cooling has nudged its way onto the coast.

[TT-SEA]

Good to see global cooling has nudged its way onto the coast.

This is so summer.

[Deweydog]

This is so summer.

Down to 38 this morning at PDX. Pretty incredible for summer.

[TT-SEA]

Down to 38 this morning at PDX. Pretty incredible for summer.

 

Indeed.

[bainbridgekid]

SSTA comparison...

 

3/9/15:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.3.9.2015.gif

 

 

3/10/14:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.3.10.2014.gif

East Coast SST's are weird.

 

Crazy cold right along the Coast, but way warm like 50 miles offshore.

 

That or the map is just glitchy.

[Jesse]

Starting to look like this month could really blow away previous record warm Marches in some locations. 

[Deweydog]

Starting to look like this month could really blow away previous record warm Marches in some locations.

You mean places across the dateline where it's already like the 23rd or something?

[Jesse]

You mean places across the dateline where it's already like the 23rd or something?

The writing is on the wall, just like it was early in February and October when I made similar statements.

 

We'll see how it goes, but 1992 is looking like a sitting duck for PDX at this point. The next 7-10 days look to feature a toasty mix of warm days and balmy nights at times.

[TT-SEA]

East Coast SST's are weird.

 

Crazy cold right along the Coast, but way warm like 50 miles offshore.

 

That or the map is just glitchy.

 

I was noticing that very little has changed since last year... across the globe.

 

Hoping that means a summer like we had in 2014!

[bainbridgekid]

I was noticing that very little has changed since last year... across the globe.

 

Hoping that means a summer like we had in 2014!

Yeah besides some warming East of Australia and in the NE Pacific, those maps are nearly identical.

[Jesse]

Yeah besides some warming East of Australia and in the NE Pacific, those maps are nearly identical.

 

Probably another warm to hot summer on tap.

 

Could be an absolutely devastating fire season this year with Cascade snow already at historically low levels and an early starting spring in the works. Things will be drying out quickly.

[IbrChris]

Taking a look at ECMWF Monthly maps (issued 3/8) it looks like above normal temps overall in the PNW through the summer...+2 to +4F anomalies. Precipitation looks below normal during March and April and closer to normal May through September.

Overall 500 mb pattern features a ridge centered to our NW along 140W during March and April...May continues to feature high heights to our north but introduces below climo heights across the eastern Pacific centered along 40N. The upper level pattern suggests potential for some ULLs off California and possibly an above average incidence of springtime thunderstorms in the PNW. Not a huge change for June...still a mean ridge along 140W centered over SE Alaska with potential for ULLs off California (Rex block scenario). Pattern appears conducive for SE flow aloft and periodic convection over PNW. July  and August a mean ridge over NW Canada...still a Rex block signature at 500 mb along 140W. Interesting to note that during the N Hemisphere summer there are virtually no negative height anomalies shown over the Northern Hemisphere from 120E to 30E (eastern Asia, Pacific, North America, Europe/N Africa).

Looking at SW Monsoon the ECMWF forecasting a rather robust monsoon across the interior west and Rockies this summer (above normal precip). Interestingly ECMWF is going well below normal on precip over Mexico for July and August after a wet June. Given the pattern along the west coast there's potential for the PNW to tap into monsoonal moisture during July and August.

I would place my bets on a warm summer, but it remains to be seen how warm. I see no reason to argue with March coming in below normal for precip (although I still think we will get to around 80% of normal). Overall the 500 mb pattern suggests it might be a struggle to get to normal precip during April. May and June appear to have better chances of achieving normal precip.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The writing is on the wall, just like it was early in February and October when I made similar statements.

 

We'll see how it goes, but 1992 is looking like a sitting duck for PDX at this point. The next 7-10 days look to feature a toasty mix of warm days and balmy nights at times.

 

PDX is running about a +2 for the month right now. SLE is a +1 and EUG is pretty much at average so far. The cold lows have been helping!

[Deweydog]

The writing is on the wall, just like it was early in February and October when I made similar statements.

 

We'll see how it goes, but 1992 is looking like a sitting duck for PDX at this point. The next 7-10 days look to feature a toasty mix of warm days and balmy nights at times.

The world watches and waits...

[Phil]

Overall 500 mb pattern features a ridge centered to our NW along 140W during March and April...May continues to feature high heights to our north but introduces below climo heights across the eastern Pacific centered along 40N. The upper level pattern suggests potential for some ULLs off California and possibly an above average incidence of springtime thunderstorms in the PNW. Not a huge change for June...still a mean ridge along 140W centered over SE Alaska with potential for ULLs off California (Rex block scenario). Pattern appears conducive for SE flow aloft and periodic convection over PNW. July and August a mean ridge over NW Canada...still a Rex block signature at 500 mb along 140W. Interesting to note that during the N Hemisphere summer there are virtually no negative height anomalies shown over the Northern Hemisphere from 120E to 30E (eastern Asia, Pacific, North America, Europe/N Africa).

The monthly ECMWF is hopelessly warm biased in the long range..it showed no below average temperatures or 500mb height anomalies anywhere over the NH during the 2014-15 winter..obviously we know how that turned out. It nailed the orientation, but failed to predict the thermals and height anomalies.

 

I suspect it has to do with inadequate radiative transfer schemes trying to account for you know what, but ECMWF disagrees and thinks it has to do with convection parameterizations. Those haven't changed much since the last update, so as far as I'm concerned, they're simply full of it.