March 2015 PNW Discussion

[Deweydog]

Probably another warm to hot summer on tap.

 

Could be an absolutely devastating fire season this year with Cascade snow already at historically low levels and an early starting spring in the works. Things will be drying out quickly.

The fire season will be more associated with whether we see any fairly persistent wet weather in the next couple months to get some good low level vegetation growing which will ultimately dry quickly.

[Jesse]

The world watches and waits...

 

2658 posts tell me that you are keeping tabs at least!

 

All-time record warm months are notable.

[Jesse]

The fire season will be more associated with whether we see any fairly persistent wet weather in the next couple months to get some good low level vegetation growing which will ultimately dry quickly.

 

Sure, but little to no rain between now and the average "dry season" would spell a bad year too, IMO. Maybe not quite as bad.

[richard mann]

...... to do with inadequate radiative transfer schemes trying to account for ...... you know. .... "what".

And for the less well-informed. ?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

The fire season will be more associated with whether we see any fairly persistent wet weather in the next couple months to get some good low level vegetation growing which will ultimately dry quickly.

 

 

I went to an AMS meeting a few years ago when they had the fire weather expert from the Portland NWS there. He said one of the biggest risk factors they have found for a bad fire season is a wet April/May followed by a warm dry June. He said a wet June is one of the biggest preventatives of a bad fire season.

 

If you remember the catastrophic B&B complex fire (August 2003, suspiciously right before GWB was scheduled to visit Redmond to discuss forest health!) followed a very low snow pack winter and a wet spring. It wasn't an overly hot summer at all, however I do believe we had some heat in June.

[Deweydog]

Sure, but little to no rain between now and the average "dry season" would spell a bad year too, IMO. Maybe not quite as bad.

It'll probably be an active season either way, but the amount of fuels is more critical than the overall dryness. Things always dry out.

[Deweydog]

2658 posts tell me that you are keeping tabs at least!

 

All-time record warm months are notable.

Cold anomalies are important too!

[Jesse]

Cold anomalies are important too!

 

None of those to really talk about in our neck of the woods for awhile, eh?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just looked at 2003 again. April was a very wet month. May was about average to slightly below and June was dry and warm with 6 90+ days at SLE.

[IbrChris]

The monthly ECMWF is hopelessly warm biased in the long range..it showed no below average temperatures or 500mb height anomalies anywhere over the NH during the 2014-15 winter..obviously we know how that turned out. It nailed the orientation, but failed to predict the thermals and height anomalies.

 

I suspect it has to do with inadequate radiative transfer schemes trying to account for you know what, but ECMWF disagrees and thinks it has to do with convection parameterizations. Those haven't changed much since the last update, so as far as I'm concerned, they're simply full of it.

I agree on the warm bias...although 2m temps don't look as bad. Warm summer seems a good bet more based on the pattern presented on the ECMWF than the actual anomalies...to some degree it looks like a fairly persistence based forecast overall. On a personal note I hope things come together for some convection west of the Cascades during the later spring and summer since that is about the only thing exciting here in summer, unless stratus is your thing.

 

I should note that virtually all forecast vendors in the energy industry are going for warm west during April and May with the majority going warmer than normal west coast during the summer months.

[Jesse]

It'll probably be an active season either way, but the amount of fuels is more critical than the overall dryness. Things always dry out.

 

True, but it's not often we go into a dry early spring pattern with basically zero snow below 5K.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

I agree on the warm bias...although 2m temps don't look as bad. Warm summer seems a good bet more based on the pattern presented on the ECMWF than the actual anomalies...to some degree it looks like a fairly persistence based forecast overall. On a personal note I hope things come together for some convection west of the Cascades during the later spring and summer since that is about the only thing exciting here in summer, unless stratus is your thing.

 

 

The lack of stratus the past two summers has been rather devastating.

[Deweydog]

True, but it's not often we go into a dry early spring pattern with basically zero snow below 5K.

Exciting times!

[Jesse]

Exciting times!

 

Wildfires are super sexy.

[Jesse]

The lack of stratus the past two summers has been rather devastating.

 

I

[IbrChris]

   

 

The lack of stratus the past two summers has been rather devastating.

Just when I entertain the possibility we have entered into a climatic paradigm shift (toward warmer and sunnier summers) a completely pathetic one like 1954 will strike (warmest temp 86 in May), warmest in June-Sept was 83 at PDX.

 

My only consolation is the "Hillsboro Hole"...aka that region of severe clear over the Tualatin Valley when the marine layer is below about 2000' in depth. Downsloping off West Hills from Columbia intrusions as well as downsloping off lee side of Coast Range helps.

[Deweydog]

None of those to really talk about in our neck of the woods for awhile, eh?

Lovely, isn't it?

[Deweydog]

Wildfires are super sexy.

They're natural. Pipe down.

[IbrChris]

Proper forest management including reduction of dead fuels on the forest floor helps in reducing risk.

[Deweydog]

Proper forest management including reduction of dead fuels on the forest floor helps in reducing risk.

Would someone please think about the owls!!!

[Jesse]

Lovely, isn't it?

 

Variety is lovely.

[Jesse]

Would someone please think about the owls!!!

 

Caring about anything is so lame.

[IbrChris]

The 71 at HIO yesterday wasn't a record however it was the 4th earliest 70+ on record (records since 1929). It is the 2nd warmest so early in the season however with 73 on 3/8/2004 being the warmest on record so early. All earlier readings are 70-even.

[Deweydog]

Caring about anything is so lame.

Silly stuff? Yes!

[IbrChris]

Early March 1905 was an impressive warm stretch. Astoria hit 76 on the 8th with a stretch of 70s from the 5th to the 10th. Corvallis, Portland and Salem reached 77 on the 9th while North Bend reached an impressive 86 on the 7th as the thermal trough developed along the coast.

The warmth extended into SW Washington with 73 at Olympia on the 8th and 9th and 68 in Seattle on the 9th. Even in BC a few warm spots: Chilliwack 74 and Victoria 68 on the 9th.

[Jesse]

Silly stuff? Yes!

How on earth do you consider the state of our natural environment "silly stuff"?

 

95% of old growth forest has been lost in the PNW. That doesn't do anything for you?

[Deweydog]

Early March 1905 was an impressive warm stretch. Astoria hit 76 on the 8th with a stretch of 70s from the 5th to the 10th. Corvallis, Portland and Salem reached 77 on the 9th while North Bend reached an impressive 86 on the 7th as the thermal trough developed along the coast.

 

The warmth extended into SW Washington with 73 at Olympia on the 8th and 9th and 68 in Seattle on the 9th. Even in BC a few warm spots: Chilliwack 74 and Victoria 68 on the 9th.

86 at North Bend? Strikes me as a little incredulous, but holy cow...

[Deweydog]

How on earth do you consider the state of our natural environment "silly stuff"?

 

95% of old growth forest has been lost in the PNW. That doesn't do anything for you?

Trees die. People die.

 

100% of Americans born before 1895 are dead. That doesn't do anything for you?

[IbrChris]

86 at North Bend? Strikes me as a little incredulous, but holy cow...

Yep...however Mar 9th, 1934 it reached 88 which is a tie for record in March at that location.

 

Here's March 1905: https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024284&year=1905&month=3&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

[TT-SEA]

Trees die. People die.

 

100% of Americans born before 1895 are dead. That doesn't do anything for you?

 

 

My thoughts exactly.

[Jesse]

Trees die. People die.

 

100% of Americans born before 1895 are dead. That doesn't do anything for you?

Completely absurd analogy.

[Deweydog]

Completely absurd analogy.

Wasn't an analogy. It was a collection of facts.

[HighlandExperience]

My thoughts exactly.

 

Trees die. People die.

 

100% of Americans born before 1895 are dead. That doesn't do anything for you?

 

Both of you must be first wave generation X hu?

[Jesse]

Both of you must be first wave generation X hu?

Such an incredibly depressing, defeatist, nihilistic outlook. I can't make heads or tails of it with Matt. Still trying to figure out if it's some sort of act or if he really is as cold as a dead fish inside.

[Deweydog]

Such an incredibly depressing, defeatist, nihilistic outlook. I can't make heads or tails of it with Matt. Still trying to figure out if it's some sort of act or if he really is as cold as a dead fish inside.

You found an ally! Get your money's worth!

[Jesse]

Wasn't an analogy. It was a collection of facts.

Do you just like getting into arguments? Comparing people, whose natural lifespan is ~80 years, to an entire ecosystem that has been decimated is absurd.

[Jesse]

You found an ally! Get your money's worth!

You're kind of a bad person.

[Deweydog]

Do you just like getting into arguments? Comparing people, whose natural lifespan is ~80 years, to an entire ecosystem that has been decimated is absurd.

I get it. It was a joke, but when it comes to wildfires, which was the topic at hand, efforts to balance development and preservation have proven to be out of sync when it comes to natural deforestation.

 

And seeing how dismissive and misguided the spotted owl debacle of the 80's and 90's turned out to be doesn't help either.

[Deweydog]

You're kind of a bad person.

Simmer down.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm not a pessimist about our environment. Modern man more or less leaves the primitive areas alone. Nature and wildlife is reclaiming them. Rural areas of the East are much wilder than 100 years ago. Good times good times. Love the wolves. I agree with Matt and Tim. I still see plenty of trees.

 

Doesn't mean I'm not for preservation. I love Donaca Lake in the Middle Santiam Wilderness is one of the most amazing places I've ever been. The trees are so big and old there you can almost feel their spirits, if they had any, if any of us had anything. Someday we'll all be dirt and then who cares if the trees are still alive right.