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March 2015 PNW Discussion


stuffradio

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Wasn't an analogy. It was a collection of facts.

 

 

The comedy of truth: We are all going to die!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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.... I can't make heads or tails of it .... Still trying to figure out if it's some sort of act or if he really is as cold as ....

 

 .. It's resolve. Sometimes you can make more happen with adopting or viewing things from a more neutral position. And when you do (in either case.), people who point to things in their view important and "neglected", can appear to be doing that and that only. More of a chess moves type of evaluation, or approach to whatever end. If making any moves at all. More than registration of an opinion, and standing up to be counted more.

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I'm not a pessimist about our environment. Modern man more or less leaves the primitive areas alone. Nature and wildlife is reclaiming them. Rural areas of the East are much wilder than 100 years ago. Good times good times. Love the wolves. I agree with Matt and Tim. I still see plenty of trees.

 

Doesn't mean I'm not for preservation. I love Donaca Lake in the Middle Santiam Wilderness is one of the most amazing places I've ever been. The trees are so big and old there you can almost feel their spirits, if they had any, if any of us had anything. Someday we'll all be dirt and then who cares if the trees are still alive right. ;)

Reminds me of going to Millersylvania State Park in Thurston County, Wash as a kid and marveling at the size of those huge old growth trees that have never known the saw. That area is especially unique considering it's not in a remote mountainous area. Of course it is easier said than done to protect these pristine areas and balance it with sustainable, responsible use of resources elsewhere. As with most issues those on both extremes are generally wrong with their approaches.

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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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The writing is on the wall, just like it was early in February and October when I made similar statements.

 

We'll see how it goes, but 1992 is looking like a sitting duck for PDX at this point. The next 7-10 days look to feature a toasty mix of warm days and balmy nights at times.

 

Those months were pretty different, in terms of how they ended up across the board. Oct 2014 was absolutely the warmest Oct most of the PNW has on record. No question.

 

Feb 2015? Not so much. The low hanging fruit UHI-enhanced spots hit it, but it certainly was not a record warm Feb for most of the PNW overall.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Euro weeklies are lol-worthy. Same pattern we've seen all winter right into the start of April (+PNA/-EPO/+NAO). Ridiculously warm in the west, ridiculously cold in the east, especially during weeks 3-4..

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Recent +NAM spike broke the all time March record by a good margin. This coming only two years after we smashed the March -NAM record, and four years since we broke the all time -NAM record. Can someone say "unstable"?

 

Winter 2014-15:

 

- Record breaking +NAM

- Record breaking -QBO

- Record breaking +PDO

- Record breaking MJO/CCKW coupling? Big synchronization should occur during week two..

 

http://catchmypicture.com/03UEkG.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/ZhgG5n.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/T9gaea.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/RCDwuF.jpg

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Recent +NAM spike broke the all time March record by a good margin. This coming only two years after we smashed the March -NAM record, and four years since we broke the all time -NAM record. Can someone say "unstable"?

 

Winter 2014-15:

 

- Record breaking +NAM

- Record breaking -QBO

- Record breaking +PDO

- Record breaking MJO/CCKW coupling? Big synchronization should occur during week two..

 

 

 

 

That is an impressive MJO and in a favorable phase for an AR event (Atmospheric River event) somewhere along the west coast in 10-14 days.

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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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Could be an absolutely devastating fire season this year with Cascade snow already at historically low levels and an early starting spring in the works. Things will be drying out quickly.

 

I was thinking the same thing. I've made quite a few trips to the Central Cascades for climbing and it looks like the end of June (not the end of March).

 

In fact some locations on the west slopes of the Cascades have less snow, than they normally have in early July!! Everything below 5 K is bare. Truly a remarkable season for lack of snow.

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Those months were pretty different, in terms of how they ended up across the board. Oct 2014 was absolutely the warmest Oct most of the PNW has on record. No question.

 

Feb 2015? Not so much. The low hanging fruit UHI-enhanced spots hit it, but it certainly was not a record warm Feb for most of the PNW overall.

 

WA did have its warmest February on record. OR came in 3rd.

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12Z ECMWF says that we might get most of the normal rain for all of March this coming weekend.

 

Continuing the theme of long dry periods punctuated with warm, heavy rain.   

 

We will be in Palm Springs starting very early tomorrow morning and will miss out on all the rain this weekend.    But thinking when we return later next week the vegetation will have leaped forward with all the sun and warmth lately and then lots of warm rain.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was thinking the same thing. I've made quite a few trips to the Central Cascades for climbing and it looks like the end of June (not the end of March).

 

In fact some locations on the west slopes of the Cascades have less snow, than they normally have in early July!! Everything below 5 K is bare. Truly a remarkable season for lack of snow.

It's incredibly bad up there.

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It's incredibly bad up there.

Hurricane Ridge back to having zero snow at 5,242 feet.

 

Been like this almost all Winter.

 

http://www.nps.gov/webcams-olym/current_ridgecam.jpg?2015210133136

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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12Z ECMWF says that we might get most of the normal rain for all of March this coming weekend.

 

Continuing the theme of long dry periods punctuated with warm, heavy rain.

 

We will be in Palm Springs starting very early tomorrow morning and will miss out on all the rain this weekend. But thinking when we return later next week the vegetation will have leaped forward with all the sun and warmth lately and then lots of warm rain.

Your vegetation will be in our thoughts and prayers.

 

#northbendstrong

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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.. If more multi-year, I'd still say, only where considering the shorter term through to this point.  

 

And basically, with not much main cold having set up more this year, better more upstream NNW to WNW. And then with where looking at the past two years, the main glut and wealth of more primary cold stores having set up through Northern / Northeastern Canadian. (Not very well over Northern Asia. Even Alaska.)

 

"Cold" Blocking more downstream, both years. Less cold upstream at all this past winter. More extended drought CA, and warmer North, with precip. more substantial, only on a more sporadic basis. (Hit and miss.)

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Dead sexy.

Still waiting for a chance to go snow shoeing this Winter. I'm thinking Paradise is going to be my only chance.

 

Oh and speaking of sexy . . .

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/tsfc.84.0000.gif

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Very sharp cold front on IR. It does not look like rain will last very long with this storm.

That is just the high and mid clouds... lots of lower stuff past that line. You will have rain most of the day tomorrow.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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By mid-April the foliage and shrubs up here will be at about mid-June 2011 growth levels. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We shall see.

 

Here is rainfall through 5 p.m. tomorrow.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015031012/images_d4/ww_pcp24.36.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And cloud cover at 8 a.m. tomorrow.   As you can see... lots of low stuff that will stick around way after the high and mid level stuff is long gone.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015031100/images_d2/intcld.15.0000.gif

 

 

Watch the full loop... rainy and cloudy all day out there.  

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d3_intcld+2015031100///3

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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