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March 2015 PNW Discussion


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Currently 40 with cloudy skies here. Kind of chilly feeling...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I was doing some work along the north side of the house today, out of the sun. Sweater weather.

Should do that work on a cloudy day. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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-2 at PDX today.

 

Everybody can officially settle the **** down now.

 

 

Yeah... looking forward to some warmer weather soon.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Down to 37f with rain here this evening. We haven't seen much sub 40 degree rain this winter.

 

 

Still almost 50 degrees here with the moon shining through high clouds after a great weather weekend.

 

And it looks like another long dry period ahead.    No shortage of extended dry spells and sunshine this winter.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Still almost 50 degrees here with the moon shining through high clouds after a great weather weekend.

 

And it looks like another long dry period ahead. No shortage of extended dry spells and sunshine this winter.

Down sloping winds there tonight? 48/29 here today. Temps quickly fell through 40 degrees with some evaporational cooling late this afternoon/evening.
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Down sloping winds there tonight? 48/29 here today. Temps quickly fell through 40 degrees with some evaporational cooling late this afternoon/evening.

 

 

Don't think there is any wind... just the clouds holding the temp up.   

 

The HRRR shows the rain sliding off the coast and missing us out here completely.   

 

All the models show it being mostly sunny by tomorrow.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Don't think there is any wind... just the clouds holding the temp up.

 

The HRRR shows the rain sliding off the coast and missing us out here completely.

 

All the models show it being mostly sunny by tomorrow.

Yes, looks like some nice days upcoming. Gonna be some chilly mornings in some spots too.
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Even getting a few lumpy wet snow flakes mixing into the rain here now. Gonna run out of precip soon though.

 

The echoes of what was looking like a decently chilly trough several days ago. 

 

Too bad this one gets pushed east so quickly. Just like all of the others this year.

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Just reminded again why I try to avoid watching any local news.

 

I was enjoying the first episode of Last Man on Earth (actually original and entertaining) when the Q13 promo for the news showed people lounging in the sun under flowering trees in Seattle with the dire warning that March will leave you 'Longing for February' which was printed in large font on the screen.   

 

I know the next 10 days look pretty decent... in fact about as nice as the first 10 days of March ever get.   So I HAD to watch and see what in the world will be so dramatically different and what will make me dearly miss the weather of February.

 

Turns out that its temps getting close to freezing at night on Monday and Tuesday!     I had no idea that was coming.   You mean sunny days with highs in the 50s to near 60 and lows in the 30s will leave me desperately wanting to turn the clock back??   

 

I hate local news with a passion.   For so many reasons.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just reminded again why I try to avoid watching any local news.

 

I was enjoying the first episode of Last Man on Earth (actually original and entertaining) when the Q13 promo for the news showed people lounging in the sun under flowering trees in Seattle with the dire warning that March will leave you 'Longing for February' which was printed in large font on the screen.   

 

I know the next 10 days look pretty decent... in fact about as nice as the first 10 days of March ever get.   So I HAD to watch and see what in the world will be so dramatically different and what will make me dearly miss the weather of February.

 

Turns out that its temps getting close to freezing at night on Monday and Tuesday!     I had no idea that was coming.   You mean sunny days with highs in the 50s to near 60 and lows in the 30s will leave me desperately wanting to turn the clock back??   

 

I hate local news with a passion.   For so many reasons.   

 

Or when the morning newscast says its "cold" on a January morning when it is 41 degrees. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just reminded again why I try to avoid watching any local news.

 

... the Q13 ... news ... people lounging in the sun under flowering trees in Seattle with the dire warning that March will leave you 'Longing for February' .. printed in large font on the screen.   

 

... HAD to watch and see what w[ould] be so dramatically different .. mak[ing] me dearly miss the weather of February.

 

I hate local news with a passion.   For so many reasons.   

 

Hmmn. (?) This there out of my general purview. Or sketchy that's what I'm talkin about wish-list type and slanted analyses of model projections 10 days out. 

 

.. I'll take the former.

---
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Interestingly back east this was the coldest February since.... 1934.

It was actually much colder in most places..Cleveland OH was one of many cities to break both their all time record low and see their coldest February on record, beating out 1875, despite the growing UHI and supposed CO^2 overload.

 

Truly an incredible pattern. If it had set up about a month earlier, wow.

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........ despite, the growing UHI and supposed CO^2 overload.

"Of course.", Huh. ?  (Be careful not let the opportunity to slip in a little rhetoric, get by now.)

 

Truly an incredible pattern. If it had set up about a month earlier, wow.

.. "Interesting." .. Despite what you've said here's lack of an actual suggestion of what might have been the result.

---
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It is now.

It appears they withdrew their plans to erect a paywall for what can be had for free elsewhere...although I admit their HTML table for GFS 16-day lends itself to utilization in applications without much formatting.

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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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Full latitude West Coast troughing on the 12Z GFS!

 

Mountain snow??

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_264_500_vort_ht.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hey only 11 days away!

That said I think models will trend wet in 11-15 day timeframe as ridging centers more on the interior west/Rockies. I anticipate SW flow and temps close to normal.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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Makes sense. I am out of state the 12th-17th. My house will probably get 2 feet of snow in that time. Its worth noting that Mtn snow is already occurring by hour 216.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Makes sense. I am out of state the 12th-17th. My house will probably get 2 feet of snow in that time. Its worth noting that Mtn snow is already occurring by hour 216.

I wouldn't worry about it.

 

Remember, this week was looking like that week a week or two ago.

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True. Also looks like a major winter storm set to unfold in the south in a couple days. :)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Nah it will happen this time because he will be gone. His location will get 3 feet.

Probably. It will have melted by the time I get home.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Probably. It will have melted by the time I get home.

Maybe just me but snow level below about 2500' seems unlikely next two weeks.

 

12z runs minimum 850 mb temp after hour 180:

 

GFS Op falls to -6c on March 13th

GFS Ens falls to -3c on March 15th

Euro Op falls to +4c on March 12th (end of run)

CMC Op falls to +3c on March 12th (end of run)

CMC Ens falls to +1c on March 14th-15th and again March 17th

 

00z runs (for comparison)

 

GFS Op: -3c March 14th

GFS Ens: -2.5c March 13th

Euro Op: +6c March 11th

Euro Ens: 0c March 16th

CMC Op: +2.5c March 11th

CMC Ens: +1c March 15th through March 17th

 

Climo for period: +1c.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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Just stumbled upon this page and thought people might be interested in how much ECMWF data costs...maximum cost is 140,000 Euros currently ($157,000 roughly at today's rate of exchange) for one year of access.


http://old.ecmwf.int/products/catalogue/tariffs_examples.html

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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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Just stumbled upon this page and thought people might be interested in how much ECMWF data costs...maximum cost is 140,000 Euros currently ($157,000 roughly at today's rate of exchange) for one year of access.

 

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/catalogue/tariffs_examples.html

 

 

So they are switching to their new site in April... will we still have access to the 500mb maps through 240 hours?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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