Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

Peter Sinks, UT Climate

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#101
Scott

Posted 23 September 2016 - 11:50 AM

Scott

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 271 posts
  • LocationNear Craig Colorado
It led to an interesting discussion. In the absence of actual observations on Rainier the only real data to look at is proxy data from soundings...but IMO it's inconclusive which location has a higher mean wind speed with the limited data available.

 

 

Hopefully, this won't spur another debate, but if anyone is interested I did some more analyzing of the data on Mt Rainier as compared to the University of Washington data that I have posted in the link below:
 

http://www.summitpos...71585#chapter_5

Camp Muir on Mount Rainier does have a weather station, at 10,110 feet which is operated by the Northwest Avalanche Center:
 

https://www.nwac.us/...a/campmuir/now/

Averages for Camp Muir are reported, but unfortunately, although averages are given, the period of record is not.   Also, January 12-24 seem to have some weird readings (if those readings are eliminated the January average is actually 14.3F for Camp Muir and -0.3F from the summit.   I did not adjust the data).

 

Here is what I came up with:

983447.JPG

 

Yellow are the actual values for the Camp Muir Weather Station.  Green are the interpolated values that were interpolated from Camp Muir to the summit of Mount Rainier.   Blue is the data obtained from the University of Washington study.

To interpolate the green values for temperature, I took the weather stations around Mount Rainier and calculated the average temperature change between them for every thousand feet of altitude change (the Longmire station was eliminated due to its location in the valley bottom which is subject to radiative cooling).    I applied that calculated figure (14.6F) for the elevation change between Camp Muir and the summit of Mount Rainier.

I compared those values with the data from the University study.  The average annual temperature difference between the two was only 0.2F, which is insignificant.  Of note, the interpolated winter and spring averages were a little cooler and the summer and fall interpolated values were a bit higher than the University measured values, but this seems to make sense since windy mountain top locations usually experience a bit less seasonal variation than other locations.

 

The interpolated wind values are only a ball park figure and shouldn't be considered measured values.   To get them, I simply tracked the forecasted wind speeds over the past few weeks to come up with a valued difference.  

https://www.atmos.wa...ier_report.html

Over the past few weeks, forecasted wind speeds have been 1.25 to 2.25 times greater on the summit of Rainier vs. Camp Muir.  I came up with an average of 1.77 forecasted difference and applied that figure to the average measured wind speeds at Camp Muir.   Obviously a lot more data is needed and my estimation wasn't that scientific.  The interpolation is just wild speculation based on a short time period and forecast and by no means should be considered accurate. 

I don't claim the number is accurate, but it was interesting.   I plan on tracking the difference in forecasted wind speeds over the space of the next few years.    


  • IbrChris likes this

#102
IbrChris

Posted 23 September 2016 - 06:49 PM

IbrChris

    Moderating Meteorologist

  • Meteorologist
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1903 posts
  • LocationTigard, OR and Portland, OR (work)

Hopefully, this won't spur another debate, but if anyone is interested I did some more analyzing of the data on Mt Rainier as compared to the University of Washington data that I have posted in the link below:
 

http://www.summitpos...71585#chapter_5

Camp Muir on Mount Rainier does have a weather station, at 10,110 feet which is operated by the Northwest Avalanche Center:
 

https://www.nwac.us/...a/campmuir/now/

Averages for Camp Muir are reported, but unfortunately, although averages are given, the period of record is not.   Also, January 12-24 seem to have some weird readings (if those readings are eliminated the January average is actually 14.3F for Camp Muir and -0.3F from the summit.   I did not adjust the data).

 

Here is what I came up with:

983447.JPG

 

Yellow are the actual values for the Camp Muir Weather Station.  Green are the interpolated values that were interpolated from Camp Muir to the summit of Mount Rainier.   Blue is the data obtained from the University of Washington study.

To interpolate the green values for temperature, I took the weather stations around Mount Rainier and calculated the average temperature change between them for every thousand feet of altitude change (the Longmire station was eliminated due to its location in the valley bottom which is subject to radiative cooling).    I applied that calculated figure (14.6F) for the elevation change between Camp Muir and the summit of Mount Rainier.

I compared those values with the data from the University study.  The average annual temperature difference between the two was only 0.2F, which is insignificant.  Of note, the interpolated winter and spring averages were a little cooler and the summer and fall interpolated values were a bit higher than the University measured values, but this seems to make sense since windy mountain top locations usually experience a bit less seasonal variation than other locations.

 

The interpolated wind values are only a ball park figure and shouldn't be considered measured values.   To get them, I simply tracked the forecasted wind speeds over the past few weeks to come up with a valued difference.  

https://www.atmos.wa...ier_report.html

Over the past few weeks, forecasted wind speeds have been 1.25 to 2.25 times greater on the summit of Rainier vs. Camp Muir.  I came up with an average of 1.77 forecasted difference and applied that figure to the average measured wind speeds at Camp Muir.   Obviously a lot more data is needed and my estimation wasn't that scientific.  The interpolation is just wild speculation based on a short time period and forecast and by no means should be considered accurate. 

I don't claim the number is accurate, but it was interesting.   I plan on tracking the difference in forecasted wind speeds over the space of the next few years.    

Impressive work! I think another interesting treatment might be had by taking UIL and SLE sounding data for 850, 700 and 500 mb and computing the mean lapse rate. I think the summit will largely mirror free-air temp at that altitude during the day (snow/ice cover albedo doesn't allow for much surface heating and surface area is rather small at 14,000+ ft). Compare those values to the ones predicted here and see if they compare favorably. If so, I would venture to say you have a pretty robust modeling of summit averages.

Interestingly the summit wind speeds extrapolated here are suggestive of very similar mean speed to Mt Washington. While not conclusive it gives me confidence in applying a reasonable educated guess that the two are fairly similar in terms of mean wind speed.

What do you make of the subtle local maxima of wind speed during July/Aug? When looking at 850/700/500 mb wind speeds from regional soundings (UIL/SLE) there's a minimum in wind speed during those months coincident with the seasonal retreat/weakening of the polar jet.

A couple further points:

* I would expect summit temps to have an annual minimum in Feb/March as both 700 and 500 mb temps are at their coldest during the Feb 15-March 15 timeframe, on average. However perhaps there's enough increase in sunlight hours during this time that the summit itself is a bit warmer than in Dec/Jan.
* Keep in mind the region has had a string of fairly mild weather in most Januaries over the last couple decades...there's been discussions ad nauseam on here as to why and whether we will break out of the cycle. It is pronounced enough that most western WA stations, including the Cascades, now have their coldest mean temp in Dec when considering 1981-2010 normals.


The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.


#103
Phil

Posted 23 September 2016 - 07:35 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 14027 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.
Since this came up, I've started tracking and averaging NOAA's summit wind forecasts for Mt. Rainier, as well as the sounding data and derived reanalyses at 15kft in the general vicinity. Hopefully this'll make things clearer for me. I don't have nearly enough data yet to reach a hypothetical conclusion on which location is windier, and it might be difficult to do that even with several months of data.

My hunch is that Mt. Washington probably scores higher in *maximum* wind speeds, at least based on what I've seen so far. Even in a relatively benign pattern, there've been multiple days with winds (both forecasted and observed) in excess of 100mph at the Mt. Washington observatory.
  • IbrChris likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#104
snow_wizard

Posted 23 September 2016 - 11:48 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 10764 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

Does anyone have data for extreme minimums on the summit of Mount Rainier?  I was able to find data online that states it is the coldest summit in the lower 48.  No real surprise there.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Coldest low so far 2017-18 = 42 
 


#105
Scott

Posted 24 September 2016 - 07:34 AM

Scott

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 271 posts
  • LocationNear Craig Colorado
Does anyone have data for extreme minimums on the summit of Mount Rainier? 

 

 

During the time the weather station was up there the minimum was -36F.   On average Rainier is the coldest place in the lower 48, but it doesn't have have the extremes that other places have.    It's just consistently cold.  

 

No lower 48 mountain top that has ever had weather data available has dropped below -50F (even if they did have weather stations on every mountain top, they probably wouldn't report temperatures lower than that).    Mt Washington has a generally accepted low of -47F, but there was an old -50F reading recorded there as well (I don't know why that reading isn't generally accepted as the official low).   That's about as cold as it gets on a mountain top in the lower 48.

 

High mountain tops are consistently cold places, but they just don't have the extremes that the valley bottoms do, unless you get really high.    In Colorado, for example, there are weather stations on two mountains above 14,000 feet.   Colorado has a few places that have recorded temperatures of -60F or lower in the valley bottoms.   On Mount Evans (weather station elevation 14,148 feet) the temperature hasn't recorded any temperatures below -40F and at the Pikes Peak station (elevation 14,110 feet), the temperature hasn't dropped below -39F.    Maybell, at an elevation of 5920 feet, which is more than 8000 feet lower than those summits has recorded temperatures down to -61F, even though on average it's a much warmer place.

Of course if you get high enough, you can find exceptions to the rule.    On Denali, for example, minimum gauge thermometers have plunged to verified temperatures of -95F and -100F.  Denali is at more than 20,000 feet in interior Alaska though.  


  • IbrChris likes this

#106
Scott

Posted 24 October 2016 - 06:16 PM

Scott

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 271 posts
  • LocationNear Craig Colorado

All-time record lows at Peter Sinks (since 1985), temperatures recorded at "Peter Sink" (north sink) unless otherwise noted:

Jan: -66 on 1/31/1985
Feb: -69 on 2/1/1985
Mar: -52 in 2002 (early month) at Middle Sink
Apr: -41 on 4/1/2008 at Middle Sink
May: -19 in 1983

Jun: 3 in 2001
Jul: 15 in 1984
Aug: 7 in 2005
Sep: -10 in 2000 (late Sept 2000 cold wave)
Oct: -32 in 2002 (probably Oct 31st)
Nov: -47 in 2003 at Middle Sink
Dec: -57 on 12/23/1990

 

 

in researching the Utah records, I did find a minor error in the above.   The -57 in December 1990 was actually recorded at Middle Sink, rather than Peter Sinks.  

 

Also, some sources (such as Chris Burt) say that there was a 6 recorded on 8/31/2005?  



#107
Scott

Posted 06 January 2017 - 07:44 PM

Scott

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 271 posts
  • LocationNear Craig Colorado
Can we eclipse the -51 which is the current record low since 2010 this winter? Fingers crossed. 

 

 

I was curious about the recent cold snap and checked the weather station:

 

https://climate.usur...edu/PeterSinks/

 

According to the weather station data, Peter Sinks was -53.1F yesterday and at least down to -53.5F this morning.


  • iFred and Black Hole like this

#108
Black Hole

Posted 07 January 2017 - 05:48 PM

Black Hole

    Daily Contributor

  • Admin
  • 1253 posts
  • LocationBountiful, Ut 84010 ~4575ft

Very impressive cold there the last two days.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#109
Scott

Posted 07 January 2017 - 09:20 PM

Scott

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 271 posts
  • LocationNear Craig Colorado
Very impressive cold there the last two days.

 

 

Also impressive was the recovery from the cold today.   Peter Sinks has a low of -42 and a high of +23.    This included a temperature rise of almost 50 degrees in two hours.

 

991451.JPG



#110
crf450ish

Posted 15 March 2017 - 06:50 AM

crf450ish

    Cool Anomalies

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 832 posts
  • LocationStevens County, WA

Ice fog in the bottom of Middle Sink on Jan 4, 2009 at 8 am. The temperature was -53F.

81kDq4o.jpg

4eb0b41b1.jpg

ea954c5f4.jpg


Where can I get those mittens and thermometers?

#111
crf450ish

Posted 15 March 2017 - 07:01 AM

crf450ish

    Cool Anomalies

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 832 posts
  • LocationStevens County, WA
Guys I was in Garden City, UT in January 2016..... for a few hours. I drove through the Logan scenic byway and then back north up through St. Charles and Montpelier and then eventually Soda Springs. This was on one of my days off while in Pocatello. Don't have any pics but my thermostat in my car said -20F... so I thought it was 20 below... right??

Well that's as low as my vehicle thermostat goes. It was actually 33 below. Didn't realize that until stopping at the little gas station on the east side of the byway heading down to bear lake, where I seen their thermometer. Yikes!!! 😵

Pretty awesome.
  • IbrChris likes this

#112
Black Hole

Posted 18 May 2017 - 10:46 AM

Black Hole

    Daily Contributor

  • Admin
  • 1253 posts
  • LocationBountiful, Ut 84010 ~4575ft

It fell to -7F this morning in Peter Sink. 


  • Phil and Jesse like this

BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F