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February 2014 in the PNW


stuffradio

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Indeed. Way too eager to bring south winds into the interior.

 

 

If we have broad SW flow like the GFS has shown... then it will be a fast transition for us in the Seattle area.

 

You always bring up the models issue with scouring cold air... but that happens with strong offshore flow.    With SW flow... we scour out in a hurry.   I have seen that more times than the other way.   But somehow every transition event is based on situations like 2008.     Its a fallacy.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I will be interested to see if the observations at SEA end up way too warm with this event. I'm afraid they will be. Just sucks from a climatology point of view to have a major station so f'd up in a winter with two major blasts.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Guest Winterdog

If we have broad SW flow like the GFS has shown... then it will be a fast transition for us in the Seattle area.

 

You always bring up the models issue with scouring cold air... but that happens with strong offshore flow.    With SW flow... we scour out in a hurry.   I have seen that more times than the other way.   But somehow every transition event is based on situations like 2008.     Its a fallacy.

Give it up please.

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If we have broad SW flow like the GFS has shown... then it will be a fast transition for us in the Seattle area.

 

You always bring up the models issue with scouring cold air... but that happens with strong offshore flow.    With SW flow... we scour out in a hurry.   I have seen that more times than the other way.   But somehow every transition event is based on situations like 2008.     Its a fallacy.

Tim I have seen many situations like this over the last 35 years where the cold and snow hung on much longer than forecasted.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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This appears like the cold is hanging on a bit longer than the last run although the temps reflect those at 4am as opposed to 4pm.

Time of day makes little difference with this kind of an air mass. It's also 12 hours later. I noticed the GFS ensemble mean is slowly extending the cold snap also. 9 straight days with 850s -5 or below.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Tim I have seen many situations like this over the last 35 years where the cold and snow hung on much longer than forecasted.

Hood Canal... yes.

 

I have seen many the other way for Seattle. Lets hope its all delayed.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Oh, the first time the page loaded your reply was all mixed up within the quote you were replying too.

I fixed that pretty fast. Not fast enough I guess

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12z EURO full run
http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
Cold. Snowy? ZR? but notice how the ridge looks as if it wants to possibly redevelop at 142-145 W? and the massive reload to the north. If it does so and can amplify nicely guess where that bitter cold wave may be heading? Yep. Speculation of course, but hey maybe.

 

Day 5

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif

 

Day 7

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif

 

Day 10

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif

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Hood Canal... yes.

I have seen many the other way for Seattle. Lets hope its all delayed.

I agree with Tim in some degree that if we get STRONG enough SW flow we scour out really fast in the major Puget Sound area. Not positive it will play out this way. Ideally we need that low to track south. Right now it is just to far out to personally worry about. I have already shared my feelings on a snow to rain transition. I am not a fan. BUT at least as it is today there is still a chance that, that does not happen. :) --- "We shall see." ;)
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12z EURO full run[/size]

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html

Cold. Snowy? ZR? but notice how the ridge looks as if it wants to possibly redevelop at 142-145 W? and the massive reload to the north. If it does so and can amplify nicely guess where that bitter cold wave may be heading? Yep. Speculation of course, but hey maybe.[/size]

 

Day 10

 

All we need is for that low in the western GOA to finish cutting off and it could work. In the good old days it wasn't uncommon for cold snaps to moderate for a few days and then come back with a vengeance a few days later.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I agree with Tim in some degree that if we get STRONG enough SW flow we scour out really fast in the major Puget Sound area. Not positive it will play out this way. Ideally we need that low to track south. Right now it is just to far out to personally worry about. I have already shared my feelings on a snow to rain transition. I am not a fan. BUT at least as it is today there is still a chance that, that does not happen. :) --- "We shall see." ;)

Not the east Puget Sound lowlands. There is too much of an easterly component to the pressure gradient. At least IMBY that deadens the south winds. With such cold air in play any air that seeps in from the passes will be very cold for a while. There could be freezing rain which I'm not wild about.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

I agree with Tim in some degree that if we get STRONG enough SW flow we scour out really fast in the major Puget Sound area. Not positive it will play out this way. Ideally we need that low to track south. Right now it is just to far out to personally worry about. I have already shared my feelings on a snow to rain transition. I am not a fan. BUT at least as it is today there is still a chance that, that does not happen. :) --- "We shall see." ;)

I think you might have enjoyed the Jan 1935 event in spite of the quick melt at the end. It was epically cold and snowy and then shot up to about 60. Granted there was snow on the ground for a number of days prior to the big finale. The chance of an epic but short lived event is very much there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html

Cold. Snowy? ZR? but notice how the ridge looks as if it wants to possibly redevelop at 142-145 W? and the massive reload to the north. If it does so and can amplify nicely guess where that bitter cold wave may be heading? Yep. Speculation of course, but hey maybe.[/size]

 

Day 10

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif

 

All we need is for that low in the western GOA to finish cutting off and it could work. In the good old days it wasn't uncommon for cold snaps to moderate for a few days and then come back with a vengeance a few days later.

Yeah, the Aleutian low retrogrades some, but 500mb pattern upstream isn't quite right. Wouldn't that be something though?

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I think you might have enjoyed the Jan 1935 event in spite of the quick melt at the end. It was epically cold and snowy and then shot up to about 60. Granted there was snow on the ground for a number of days prior to the big finale. The chance of an epic but short lived event is very much there.

I would have been fine with that! :) I am just irked when we get this great cold and all we get is a sloppy mess transition... It seems like such a waste of cold. I am of the mind that let's get some snow we can actually enjoy for a day or to if not longer.
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I would have been fine with that! :) I am just irked when we get this great cold and all we get is a sloppy mess transition... It seems like such a waste of cold. I am of the mind that let's get some snow we can actually enjoy for a day or to if not longer.

Big waste of cold if we don't see any significant snow.

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I think the infatuation with February 5th as a cutoff for major cold in the western lowlands has more to do with of a quirk of climatological history than anything. It just so happens that PDX and SEA both have major cold waves dominating their records up to 2/5 (Early Feb 1950 and Feb 1989).

 

Nothing really exciting has happened in the time frame from 2/5 to 2/14 in the last 70+ years. So PDX's and SEA's records show a huge, inflated rise in record lows after 2/5.

 

After this event, our records in the 2/1 to 2/10 period may be a lot more uniform looking. That huge post 2/5 rise will be mitigated quite a bit, in a way that better reflects our climatological capabilities for the first half of February as a whole.

 

You can look at that two ways though.  Feb 1950/1989 may have masked the systematic warm up of late January/early February.  2-13-90 verified sub-510 thicknesses over PDX with snow on the ground.  The high... 37 degrees.  In other words, I think it's more a testament to the brutality of the February 1989 air mass and the incredible radtiational cooling of February 1950 that stick out, not the absence of cold in the days following.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Haven't been on here in a while, decided to take a break while the death ridge held in place. Come back to see some excitement with regards to the models finally showing something remotely interesting. I see Tim still hasn't changed. You'd think after spending practically a whole month under a ridge that wouldnt budge he would just be happy to have something to track. But no. Let's focus on the massive warm-up 7 days away!!! We are all going to be sobbing in the brutally warm south winds!!! Watch out folks!! Models got this SW wind event on lock down! Heard it from Tim and I first!!

 

Loved this winter... will love this week.

 

Just hoping for some snow going in... thats all.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Now I am screwed. Bad reception and it posted 4 times when I got a signal! I can't delete them. Help!

 

Four is purely unhealthy.  Go do something productive.  This event will be snowless anyway, less a 45 minute transition event. 

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Three times seemed like enough. I MUST POST THIS NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No... in Safeway walking around with the cart. Did not realize there was no reception. Walked by the door and it was on there 4 times.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1607049_724927867525613_755504560_n.jpg

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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