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Modoki ENSO .. "El Niño Modoki"


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#1
richard mann

Posted 18 March 2015 - 01:34 PM

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-
 Sometimes referred to as a more Central Pacific focused El Ninoif more where considering its more positive phase.
 
 .. This ENSO related phenomenon looked at more in particularly was brought up recently in the main "California Climate" thread, main "The West" section, by "Black Hole" (one of the main Staff here.) .. in line with the idea of its potential connection to, and even more its perhaps being the main driving element behind the current California drought condition. 


This may be behind the drought:
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki home s.html.en


With this idea, and its having been responded to, with additionally having generated some amount of discussion, I've thought to start a thread dedicated more specifically, to it.

And, in addition to the quotation above, I'll be working to include others of posts part of the discussion that I've mention here above, toward the idea of prefacing more discussion about the phenomenon.


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#2
richard mann

Posted 18 March 2015 - 01:44 PM

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This may be behind the drought:
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki home s.html.en


Interesting. In the Western U.S. at least, the recent observed conditions certainly seem to match up to those predicted for this "El Niño Modoki" pattern. This article isn't terribly comprehensive, and the data it references seem pretty spotty. It covers only up to about mid-2013, which is about when the weather really started to go haywire around here. I'd be curious to know more details, such as whether current SST observations fit the Modoki pattern, and whether the current temperature and rainfall conditions in Japan and China are also matching up to the Modoki pattern predictions.


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#3
richard mann

Posted 18 March 2015 - 01:48 PM

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Interesting.  In the Western U.S. at least, the recent observed conditions certainly seem to match up to those predicted for this "El Niño Modoki" pattern. ....


The current Pacific Pattern is indeed an El Nino Modoki and I believe it explains at least a part of this winters weather. Apparently the time scale is a little bit longer than normal ENSO stuff, and there is also a negative version of it. Anyway, something to think about.


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#4
richard mann

Posted 18 March 2015 - 01:53 PM

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I'm very far from a long range forecast proponent, but everything I've read about Mokoki Nino's and their longer time scale and persistent patterns points toward next Winter more than likely being warm and dry in the West and cold in the East again.
 
Cue the 1950 redux?


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#5
richard mann

Posted 18 March 2015 - 01:55 PM

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It really is quite unfortunate but I agree. The odds are in favor of continuing drought for the next few years.


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#6
richard mann

Posted 18 March 2015 - 01:55 PM

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Do you know the last time we were stuck in an El Nino Modoki pattern such as this one?


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#7
richard mann

Posted 18 March 2015 - 01:57 PM

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Offhand, no. But I would say we could look at the big droughts of the past and cross check ENSO for starters. Lets look into it.


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#8
richard mann

Posted 18 March 2015 - 01:58 PM

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Sounds like a good idea to me. 
 
I am wondering if the late 1980's early 90's drought may have been related to this at least in the early stages. 1986-87 and 1987-88 were two El Nino years that were drier than the average El Nino and I don't believe 1986-87 was a weak event, either. It seems that I read somewhere a while back that the warm water stayed in the central Pacific during the 86-87 event, which means that it very well could have been a Modoki event.


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#9
richard mann

Posted 18 March 2015 - 02:00 PM

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Offhand, no. But I would say we could look at the big droughts of the past and cross check ENSO for starters. Lets look into it.


Modoki's are also called Central Pacific El Niño's.
 
This is from Wikipedia: Recent Central Pacific El Niños happened in 1986–1988, 1991–1992, 1994–1995, 2002–2003, 2004–2005 and 2009–2010.69 Furthermore, there were "Modoki" events in 1957–59,70 1963–64, 1965–66, 1968–70, 1977–78 and 1979–80.7172
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El Niño#The .22Modoki.22 or Central-Pacific El Ni.C3.B1o

 


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