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Northern Plains/Great Lakes snow potential


th_snow

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The models are hinting at a possible snow storm for the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for next Tuesday and Wednesday. Too early to know where the rain/snow line sets up as we have a few days to go to watch this. At least it will help some with the drought.gfs_namer_135_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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You know its been a dull snow season up near MN when the_snow posts in late March!  12z Euro isn't that enthusiastic about the snow potential but like you said, things will change.  Hope you get your snow that is much needed up that way.

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I'll admit I wasn't thrilled to read the NWS Green Bay AFD this morning. Really hoping to get aerial photography and LiDAR flown soon. 

AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM IS A TREND TO
A MORE WRAPPED-UP/COLDER SYSTEM WITH A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW RATHER THAN THE W. THIS
SCENARIO IS FULLY SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GEM WHICH BRINGS AN
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARD CHICAGO AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD THIS
SOLUTION. THIS WOULD PRODUCE MORE MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT OVER THE NORTH.
PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL BE ABLE TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND JUST HOW MUCH COLD
AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE
PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH. THIS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE CLEARER AS THE
MODELS HOPEFULLY CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
AS OPEN AS IT HAS BEEN IN RECENT WEEKS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
CLIMBING TO NEAR 0.75" SO THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE MOISTURE
STARVED. DEPENDING ON HOW WRAPPED UP THE SYSTEM GETS...A
DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW COULD SET UP OVER THE AREA...OR JUST SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF THE SYSTEM DOES GET MORE WRAPPED UP...THERE COULD BE SOME
DRY SLOT CONCERNS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO
CHANGE WITH THIS THIS SYSTEM SO WON`T GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
AT THIS POINT AND WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT IT APPEARS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE QUITE MESSY WITH A
BURST OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RETURN TO WINTER FOR
SOME SPOTS. COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S ONCE AGAIN. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH- CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
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GGEM

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015032000/gem_asnow_us_20.png

 

What's confusing is that the snow on this map is from the first wave which is what I thought the thread was about, then I realized this thread is actually about the storm following.  I guess it's important to have dates on these threads so we know which event people are talking about.

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Could be my biggest snowfall of the 2014-15 snow season if all the pieces fall into place.

 

 

 

TO SHOW YOU THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE FORECAST...GRB NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATED
0.4 INCHES OF ICE WHILE THE GFS SUPPORTED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.
TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE CANADIAN/ECMWF MODEL
SUPPORTED THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. ALSO...THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
WAS OF CONCERN. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL IN ABOUT A 6 HOUR
PERIOD. THOSE TYPE OF EVENTS USUALLY DO NOT GET US TO WARNING CRITERIA.
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Storm was pretty much as advertised. Most reports were in the 2-4" range and I'll call it 2" imby. Here's a picture of my driveway this morning.

 

UPDATED WINTER TOTALS

MONTH / AVG TEMP / SNOWFALL / GREATEST 24HR

NOV / 25.9 / 11" / 4.8"

DEC / 24.1 / 2.5" / 1.3"

JAN / 16.7 / 8.7" / 3"

FEB / 7.5 / 3.5" / 2"

MAR / 32.7 / 2.5" / 2"

TOTAL SNOW = 28.2"

 

2015-03-25 06.43.18.jpg

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