Pacific Northwest "Blob"......

[PACNORWESTChick]

So I have heard weather people talking about the weather "blob" that has been sitting off the west coast for almost 2 years now.  Causing much warmer than normal temps.  I got some details on the "whys" from http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/, but I'm trying to get more information on if the blob is something that will go away or if this is something we will have to deal with long term.  Anyone have any thoughts on the Blob?

 

Thank you.

 

 

[richard mann]

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Good subject. And one certainly warranting the idea of following / documenting I'd say.  .. Welcome to the forum. 
 
The first main idea here probably best being, noting where "it's" both been, together with just how warm its gotten, looked at relative to where it is and what its state is more at this point. And with this, what's been being looked at and gaged, having been the more basic "Sea Surface Anomalies" (SSTAs), west out over the Pacific. 
 
Here accessible just below are two links useful where considering the idea of tracking its both past along with potential future movement. Both, to main site-pages generated by the "Office of Satellite and Product Operations"  (OSPO), part of the "National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service" (NESDIS), part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). One to a listing of graphics, generated every two or three days, working to show the main changes where considering this parameter, and the other showing a more sequential animation of those changes where looking back over the most recent past 6 months.
 
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim full.html
 
More than this, as you've noted above, "Cliff Mass" has had a fair amount to say about the phenomenon. Probably easiest to find with doing a more general search, as opposed to working back through the main archive system at his main blog site. First mentioned, pretty sure, back in September. - http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/09/did-blob-cause-our-warm-summer.html
 
As for my own perspective where looking at the occurrence / phenomenon (Fairly obviously just where the warmest Sea-Surface waters have coalesced. If for reasons not so well known and established.), and in response to your main set of questions here above, .. I'd say that there's a fair chance leastwise, that this "glut" of warmer sea-surface water, could perhaps move more southward with time, perhaps contributing to some type of more "ENSO" focused activity. 
 
— Fuller scope "El Nino Southern Oscillation" changes. Whether an actual El Nino, more eastward focused (more main.) or even more westward, perhaps adding to some type of further influence where looking at the currently somewhat warmer waters anomalous being watched more Central (equatorial.) Pacific focused—known as either a "Central Pacific" or "Modoki" type "event"—where looking more ahead.
 
Here following is a link to a discussion having looked at the "Modoki ENSO". - http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/141-enso-thread/?p=74424
 
— You can also do an "in-forum" search for the "Blob" more of course.

[snow_wizard]

The blob is being caused by persistent low surface pressure anomalies over the NE Pacific and Gulf of Alaska.  A good persistent surface high out there would kill it pretty quickly.  Just when that will happen is the question.  I don't look at he blob as being the cause of our warm weather so much as a result of it.  I suppose it is possible the warm water could cause higher dew points than we would normally see with onshore flow which would keep the nights warmer than would otherwise be expected.

[Front Ranger]

To expand on what others have said, the blob is due to a very persistent El Nino-type circulation in the North Pacific over the past 18 months or so. Even though we haven't experienced a full fledged El Nino, the North Pacific has been basically stuck in that pattern, which as Snow Wizard stated, favors low pressure up by the Aleutians and high pressure near the west coast.

[Black Hole]

Unfortunately no reason to believe anything is changing for now. We all wish it would though.

[Phil]

My hazy memory recollects a super typhoon or two in 2013 that helped build a record setting Pacific ridge in October of that year. We've been dealing with a ridge ever since. The ridge helped the PDO swing positive (IMO, others disagree) and the Nino circulation followed. Like Flat Ranger said, its not a full blown Nino but for a while the media was predicting a Super Nino

It all started in January 2013, with the big SSW/mass displacement event being the initiator. The system was already heading into a more integrated +AAM regime in the means, but once the wave train & polar export gradients broke down, off-equatorial transport was compromised while the equatorial tropopause dropped/cooled..igniting a major MJO wave that fought the Walker Cell into submission.

 

It could be suggested that this should have been expected, based on the strong statistical relationship between solar max and a +ENSO response thereafter.

[Phil]

I wouldn't give too much credit to the solar max, given how weak its been. What do you attribute the record hadley cells to?

TSI is higher than it's been in over 13 years..in my opinion it's more about relativity than absolute forcing, as the system appears to operate on a non-linear, multi-modal basis. So, in this case, rate of change > total change.

 

The broad/poleward Hadley Cells are a product of a slew of factors, though at this point they're basically inertial remnants. Obviously solar forcing expands/contracts them on a clear 11yr cycle, but the multi-decadal poleward migration appears to be related to processes that occurred during the 1980s/1990s. I could attempt to explain it all, but it'd be a long winded rant.

 

Basically, when the HCs expand, mass transport/thermals are altered in a manner that helps sustain/advance this condition. Even after the initial forcings that led to the HC response change, the progression will often self-sustain, inertially, until it can no longer.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Does the warm phase of the AMO by any chance aid in the expansion of the Hadley Cells? The +AMO began in 1995.

[Jesse]

Great discussion on this thread.

 

If the 12z runs are correct, we may see the best pattern for eroding the "blob" that we have seen for many months the first week of April. Could be another tease too though.

[Phil]

TSI graph

 

 

That looks to be in error..what dataset/satellite is that from?

 

Edit: Looks like PMOD..definitely not a fan of that one.

 

I like the SORCE-TIM dataset from LASP, very high quality:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/0WJW6u/800.jpg

[richard mann]

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More than I've said above, more initially, .. 
 
— And with thanking "PNWChick" for both having initiated this thread, along with also otherwise, having recognized the potential at this forum to actually discuss different themes, even in greater part impacting the West, not more within and as part of the more general discussion, …
 
With "the Blob's", being more essentially (basically.) and if again fairly obviously, just an area where the warmest Sea-Surface waters have coalesced, .. and with my presuming, where looking at what Jared ("Front Ranger") has said above about "a very persistent El Nino-type circulation in the North Pacific", that he's in fact meant more where looking at the circulation of the waters moving through the North Pacific, my agreeing with what he's said, certainly in part, ..
 
.. First and foremost, I attribute this gathering/ focusing of warmer waters mainly, to the variations in and of the more general circulation where looking at the currents of and within the greater Pacific North. 
 
— Perhaps more initially even having been a larger "eddy", similar to that responsible for generating of the main "garbage patch", more typically being caused to set up, more stationary, more frequently, "centered" within the Central North Pacific more.
 
This with then, and as with where looking more myself, at the more pronounced coalescing of warmer waters seen at different times where looking at the different main leanings more ENSO focused—through the Eastern, more equatorial Pacific with a Nino, more through the Western equatorial Pacific with a Nina, and even within the more Central equatorial Pacific with a Modoki type El Nino, ... my not [in fact] subscribing to the idea that atmospheric circulation (or what happens above the Pacific or adjacent.) is the main driving force connected to and responsible for pushing these currents or greater circulation—but more, both main "Coriolis", looked at together with the main "pressure gradient" forces (main, and deeper heating differential.) more with the ocean itself, .. my feeling, that the future movement, looked at together with degree of stability even, of and where looking at this warming—more focused and moving—is most likely best able to be plotted, with working mainly, to appreciate more, just what these main current flows are doing and why. (Again, not more as a result of anything more atmospherical.)
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great Pacific garbage patch
http://www.proxigee.com/Ocean currents 1943 (borderless).png

.. "Tim". ?
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/831-march-2015-pnw-discussion/?p=75230 / with post following.

[Phil]

Does the warm phase of the AMO by any chance aid in the expansion of the Hadley Cells? The +AMO began in 1995.

The AMO is kind of like the PDO in that it's a reflection of circulatory harmonics. Yes, it's very closely tied to, if not driven by, the size/latitude of the Atlantic Hadley Cell.