Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 All Global Models have been honing in on a possible major winter storm that looks to hit somewhere in the Plains/Midwest/OV Region. Could this be the biggest storm to hit the area yet this year??? Will the projected SE Ridge flex its muscles and take this system on a more northwesterly track??? Lot's of details to be ironed out. Discuss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Dramatic start to the thread. Really gets me pumped up for a storm that will likely miss me! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 yes if we do get the southeast ridge and if it does flex it's muscles than chicago will be in for it and this storm can be shifted 50 to 100 miles nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Anyway to spice it up East Dubzz...hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 I sure hope this shifts nw. Still a long time for it to but I would like to start seeing a significant shift in the next 24 hours or so or I may lose some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah this is going to be torture. Need it to shift more to the NW soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 What will really upset me... If that high pressure really is that strong, surpresses the storm, then brings more brutal cold air! Does anyone have the predicted AO/NAO/PNA indexes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 What will really upset me... If that high pressure really is that strong, surpresses the storm, then brings more brutal cold air! Does anyone have the predicted AO/NAO/PNA indexes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Just checked the indexes and AO slightly negative, NAO near neutral, GFS PNA around -2.0, Euro PNA -1.0. The WPO will be in the tank more than -3.0 (this kind of concerns me as it may offset -PNA). Time will tell and see how strong and where that High Pressure off the east coast develops. Euro Ensembles keep it closer to the coast which would benefit a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Euro way south yet i assume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 I was just about to ask that, Tom. The AO/NAO/PNA all seem in our favor, but I guess a strong negative WPO could hurt us as well. Wasn't that a factor in our first polar plunge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 A deep negative WPO would suggest a stronger eastern trough so this may be our dagger. Looks like some major cold is brewing just north of the border around this time period so I'd hate to see this get suppressed. Hoping that in future runs that SE Ridge beefs up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 "euro ens look pretty close to the OP maybe a bit nw...looks like track from AL to WV with a secondary over western SC....not sure if it's doing a double-barreled thing or showing a transfer." From American Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Preliminary reports on 18z GFS saying it is coming nw in its early stages. Lets see how far it can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Models are pushing this storm further south. I'd rather not be in the bullseye a week away, thats for sure. Chances are it will come more NW. There is no blocking, so hopefully its a cutter. If this materializes...than, itwill bury the midwest. Hope for the best. Still plenty of time. Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Huge step NW...probably biggest shift yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Closest to a negative title through we have seen all winter. This thing could literally track anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 18z GFS shows a huge swath of 12"+ (total from all systems) from KS/N MO/IL/N IN/S MI...would like it to see it amp up some more into a defined SLP. This run it looks like a moisture laden elongated wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Huge step NW...probably biggest shift yet...Yep, close to low end warning snows on this run...baby stepping to the NW Lehs on this runs as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 This storm has everything going for it to be a doozy...I would expect GGEM/EURO to come NW for tonights 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 18z GFS showing another major storm right on its heals 2-3 days later hitting same areas... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 great news and poss thundersnow and a full blown blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 ^LOL I don't even want to know what this man is going to do if CHI doesn't get a Blizzard soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 great news and poss thundersnow and a full blown blizzardi love this guy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 And I thought I was the optimistic one, haha. But hey, who knows what this could become? Maybe blizzard, maybe just a 3-6 event. Thundersnow is a very rare occurrence that doesn't come with every snowstorm. That's part of the reason the GHD is so special, especially because it happened twice! I am optimistic that this could turn out to be big for this area. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 great news and poss thundersnow and a full blown blizzardlock it in lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Look to be in a bit better spot now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z GFS ensembles are mostly inline with the 18z OP. One takes the low right over Chicago lol 3 don't have the storm or are way weak and SE and the rest are similar or a tad east of the OP gfs. Basically what you expect 150+ hours out What is dif. is that its farther nw than 12z ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 The period of time between the 18z GFS & the 0z NAM always feel longer than 3+ hours when there's stuff to track. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z GFS ensembles are mostly inline with the 18z OP. One takes the low right over Chicago lol 3 don't have the storm or are way weak and SE and the rest are similar or a tad east of the OP gfs. Basically what you expect 150+ hours out What is dif. is that its farther nw than 12z ensembles For this to really be a monster we probably need a phase with the northern stream. It looks like the 18Z OP was trying to do that, but was a near miss. Also the SE ridge is likely underplayed on the models at this point. If we indeed have a -PNA no way this storm is going to be a OV or a east coast storm. Looks like the models today show less dominant high pressure over the area which was also why we have had a NW shift today. At this point it's almost like pulling a name out of a hat. We will have a much better idea by this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 The period of time between the 18z GFS & the 0z NAM always feel longer than 3+ hours when there's stuff to track. Yes it does lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Huge step NW...probably biggest shift yet...I'll take that with just about another 50 miles to the NW served with a topping of a Negative tilted trough please. WIth how crappy it has been in my area I would be happy with one monster of a blizzard; way long time to go though until this event unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 The +NAO, warm phase of the MJO, and negative PNA should allow this to curve northwards. - Overwhelming the WPO signal. I'm not worried about this heading so far south it misses this area completely. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Here is the FIM for what it's worth. Looks similar to the Canadian. http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2014012912/236/totp_24h_f168.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just by the early looks of things GFS seems to be coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Same track, a tad weaker. Still 4-6 for Chicago/E. IA and S. WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 14-18 inches of snow total for Chicago through HR 150 with all 2 systems combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Okay, so the actual SLP was further east, but ULL was further NW, which is why there are decent snows up here. There was a situation similar to this early in the year. In fact, I think that's the storm that gave me a Winter Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 GGEM HR 144 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Might not get the big dog, but both GFS/GGEM show WI/IL/IA getting at least a couple inches from this even with a track that far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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