February 4-5th Possible Major Winter Storm

[winterfreak]

EURO is crap too.

[Geos]

EURO is favoring IN & OH again.

[Tom]

00z Euro thru 90HR...

 

[gabel23]

00z Euro thru 90HR...

When you can could you post digital snow totals for the central plains?

[Tom]

00z Euro has 850's -10C or below for duration of event...would produce 20:1 ratios and fantastic LehS up this way.  You could fluff up .40qpf easily to warning type snows.  All in all, the defo band is looking very healthy and wide each run.  Again, I don't buy this system cutting into the east coast but rather up west of the Appalachians.  Tomorrow is going to be important as this storm will be riding along the Cali coastline and getting better data by Balloon Network.  It would be absolutely embarrassing if the WRF/NAM got this one right 84 hours out and beat the EURO/GFS/GGEM.

[Tom]

00z Euro...

 

 

[Geos]

When you can could you post digital snow totals for the central plains?

 

 

[Jaycee]

00z Euro...

Wow. I'm directly in the bullseye on this! 

[Money]

I'm gonna give it til 0z tomorrow night.

 

Just want at least 2-4 from this and I'll be happy.

[Money]

Someone from American:

 

Models are mishandling the S/W and the northern stream and thus providing many implications on the track and strength of the storm. If you analyze the 500mb vort charts, you could pick out some errors that I think the models will correct in the coming day or two. Been a horrible season for the models. For example, the GGEM completely retrogrades the northern stream and kills it off. 

 

Will be interesting to see what happens when it gets fully sampled.

[Tom]

Winterfreak, I'm not giving up on this one.  I was referencing to the track this storm took back in Cycle 2 of the LRC.  Very similar and I think this is the storm we are seeing in Cycle 3 now.  I don't have the maps showing the system I'm thinking of back in December to show the comparison.  If it is, this storm would be riding up from deep down in TX northeast into S IL/S IN.

[winterfreak]

Yeah I was just messing with you. Will be interesting to see what the models show once this thing is fully sampled.

[clintbeed1993]

Anyone got the snowfall map for new EURO?

[Grizzcoat]

Looks like you're giving up on this one. Come on man lol. If the NAM holds serve it will be interesting to see which model wins out.

The Nam sucks as this distance. Within 36-42 hours,, it improves A LOT.

[Tom]

If you followed the LRC's forecast for the Superbowl, you would know that there would be a ridge building up the east coast and temps would be above normal.  It took the models 2-3 days before the Superbowl to figure this pattern out and now they have corrected and forecasting temps near 50F.  I remember models were forecasting temps in upper 20's/low 30's just a few days back.

 

Same goes for this storm, it will follow the same pattern and if there is a ridge in place on the east coast, it aint cutting directly into it.

[winterfreak]

If there is a ridge in place on the east coast. Yes it wouldn't make sensefor it to go into an eastern ridge. Praying a NW trend.

[Money]

Like we've been saying for days on here, the strength of the HP coming is probably the biggest factor in this storm either heading more NW or staying SE like GGEM/ECMWF.

[Money]

6z NAM going to look a lot like the 0z nam. No major changes through hr 60

[OmahaBubble]

6z NAM going to look a lot like the 0z nam. No major changes through hr 60

Do you by chance have snow totals for euro?

[Money]

6z NAM gives Chicago 14-18 lol

 

Quite a gradient. 3-4 for MKE, 14-18 for Chicago. 

[East Dubzz]

Yeah that's a tough pill to swallow if that would happen. Brings me about 3-4", foot or more not far away. Still not a terrible run, but I think it's going to cave to the GFS eventually.

[bud2380]

DVN said to ignore the American models.  Too moist once again. 

[bud2380]

WPC 4" snow chances

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

[bud2380]

4" percentages

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge04_2014020212f072.gif

[bud2380]

WPC QPF - com'n north shift!   Northern Missouri has been hit hard this year. I'd love to see some snow totals from there this year.

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif

[winterfreak]

Local NWS calling for 6"+ with this.

[bud2380]

WPC says this will be a negative tilt trough.  I have always been taught negative tilt lows tend to shift further NW, so hopefully that will be the case. 

DAY 3......CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...YET ANOTHER SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THESOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE TROUGHBECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...ENHANCING UPPER DIFLUENCE IN THECENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND NORTHERN OH VALLEY. TWO POWERFUL UPPER JET CORES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SRN CANADA ANDIN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...FORMING A COUPLED JET REGIONFROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY. THE GULF OF MEXICO ISAGAIN EXPECTED TO BE TAPPED...WITH THIS MOISTURE STREAMING INTOTHE COLDER AIR.  ASCENT OCCURS IN THE SWATH OF 850-700 MBWARM/MOIST ADVECTION...GENERATING WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLFOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND THEN ACROSS PA ANDSOUTHERN/CENTRAL NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDERNEATH DIVERGENCEMAXIMA ALOFT. A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY FROMNORTHERN AR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO TO SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHERNIN/SOUTHERN OH AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN WV/SOUTHWEST PA ASWARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850-700 MB RAISES TEMPS ABV FREEZING WHILESFC TEMPS ARE AT FREEZING OR COLDER.MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WAS EXCELLENT FAVORINGA SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/GFS.  THE 00Z NAM WAS ANOUTLIER WITH A STRONGER CLOSED 700 MB LOW FURTHER NORTH...SO WASGIVEN THE LEAST WEIGHTING. 

[Sciascia]

NAM looking weaker at 63hrs. That high from Canada also appears stronger. SE as well with NE IL seeing more blues than reds on the snow map.

[Sciascia]

The 6" marker appears in Chicago at 69hrs. But the heaviest snows definitely SE of previous 3 runs. So I'd say, to an extent, NAM blinked.

 

18-20" readings for good chunk of N IN.

[jcwxguy]

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/12znam_zpsd4854e0c.png

[Scott26]

The 6" marker appears in Chicago at 69hrs. But the heaviest snows definitely SE of previous 3 runs. So I'd say, to an extent, NAM blinked.

Yup it's all downhill from here, literally lol. 12Z NAM shows 18-20 inches in northern Indiana. Pretty crazy...

[bud2380]

I think the NAM just corrected itself from being too moist and robust this far north.  Overall the track was fairly similar, but qpf was just scaled back on the north edge.  Might have shifted a bit south overall.  Personally this is more in line with what I think will happen.  Might still be overdone on the north end.  Just my opinion.

[Sciascia]

Who's got a white flag for me? Lol. The "SE Ridge" appears like it will fail us, as will the Canadian high pressure. Likely to be 2nd straight storm that drops the most snow to our SE.

 

Our "snow magnet" has lost it's juice. Haha

[DominicR]

GFS is furthur north out west so it's a good start.

[bud2380]

Pretty good for Iowa, but I think this is slightly overdone.

 

http://i.imgur.com/OBGrIEZ.gif

[BrianJK]

Winter storm watches already up in MO

[Tony]

Unfortunately, as of right now it doesn't look like it is our storm. That high pressure is pushing this storm south of us. It would have to dig more and go negative tilt to have a major storm hit for our area.

[Money]

Look at 12z GFS for the Feb 9th storm. That might be the one lol

[winterfreak]

Well I'm under a WSW. We'll see what happens. Hoping to maybe get a little more next Friday too but that's probably asking for too much.

[Madtown]

game over for this one in this area