Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Pre system: http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014013012/mc/ecmwf_tprecip_mc_18.png Post System http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014013012/mc/ecmwf_tprecip_mc_28.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Much better run on the 12z Euro...NW track stays put, however, this run more moisture in cold sector that seems to develop a large defo band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 The Euro looks so close to going off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 The Euro looks so close to going off Yup. I like where we all are sitting. Have been since we started tracking this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 EURO is a ways away from a full on phase yet, but it wouldn't take much. Seems like it has been forever since a system has gone negative tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 The Euro def looks like this system can go neg tilt. It also show it strengthening as it heads NE up the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Not sure how much of a negative tilt you want Tom. Right now it looks like it has the best chance of phasing pretty far west then the chances lessen as it flattens out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'd take a phased system any day, doesn't need to go negative. I think the last system was the GHD Blizzard that went neg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ha ya its been forever. Been forever since a full phase to it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 We have a good chance of a fully phased system since we are reaching the jet streams peak in intensity this time of year. Looks like this system slowed a bit from a couple days ago which may help this phasing happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 At least for now would be another 6-10 incher for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 I wasent expecting to see 2 footer out of this. De ja vu all over again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 ORD at 48 inches. So we get the 6-8 inches Sat then we could be around 55 inches by Monday and if this delivers then we could be somewhere in the mid or possibly upper 60's with rest of Feb to go and even March/April. I think we have a good shot guys to break the record if pattern remains active after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Your right Dominick, there is another storm the following weekend that we have to watch as well that looks to be a big one. Skilling and Bill Bellis already talking about the one next weekend! This would be epic if all these storms came into fruition. It reminds me of what happened in Wisco during the 2007/2008 winter where they had over 100". My friends summer home up near Castle Rock Lake had a snow depth over 36"+! That was a great year for snowmobiling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 COME NORTH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 COME NORTH.Need a full phase early to get it really come to you and less confluence up in MN and north of the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 These OH posters on accuweather are such weenies lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 These OH posters on accuweather are such weenies lolMost of the forum are Ohio Valley posters so of course they are wishcasting for their backyard. If their area gets missed then they really go off. If you tell them this big storm next week is going to move farther NW they will pretty much bash you so not even worth posting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 At least over on our forum we provide honest opinions on what a storm may or may not do and provide sufficient info to back it up. I have to admit, back in the 2011/2012 winter there was some wish casting involved as that was the most depressing winter for snow lovers. On the other hand, this winter is totally the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah, you never want to be in the heaviest snowzone this far out though. It's usually a bad sign. Slower, and stronger is what I predict will happen in the upcoming model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Nebraska is looking good!!! GFS has us over a foot of snow by the time this storm rolls around. So excited!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Hope this one surprises me... Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wow LOT already has "likely" pops Tuesday and Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wow LOT already has "likely" pops Tuesday and Tuesday night.Just noticed that. Interesting & a little exciting. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 WOW....my forecast for next week's storm already has me for snow likely??!!!! and possibly heavy???!!! Okay....so, whats going on here guys...forecasters seem too confident this far out. Very interesting. I'll tell you one thing, it will be a heck of a storm if it materializes and someone will get buried. Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Same here. Already likely as I was saying. A classic Chicago-Detroit winter season in the makings. I see you guys are doing good to over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well, latest CPC hazards has bumped north, from mby over to Nikos are "in" Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well, latest CPC hazards has bumped north, from mby over to Nikos are "in" For what and where you live at? BTW, Central IL under watches now for 5-7 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 NWS not sold on the Tuesday-Wednesday storm yet. Hmm. This is our one shot. Hope you Cicago folks can break the all time record. That would be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Same here. Already likely as I was saying. A classic Chicago-Detroit winter season in the makings. I see you guys are doing good to over there.Definitely...so far for the season, I have picked up 55.2inches. Also, if I get a tenth of an inch or more snow from tonight's CF, it will be the all-time snowiest January. Currently for the month, I am at 38.3". 1 Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 NWS not sold on the Tuesday-Wednesday storm yet. Hmm. This is our one shot. Hope you Cicago folks can break the all time record. That would be something. Yeah looks like you have shot at some snows with this system. Long WAA ahead of it setting up and looks quite widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Any early thoughts on 18z GFS? Looks like it might go north. Not completely sure yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Hey guys I mostly just read the valuable information all of you guys post, but if I am understanding you guys correctly we could have 3ft of snow on the ground by the 10th of this month? If this does happen can we say that this could end up cracking the top 3 in worst winters (depending on how you look at it LOL!) ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 For what and where you live at? BTW, Central IL under watches now for 5-7 north. My Bad. I'm in SCMI, Marshall to be exact. 49068 (haven't had time to update my profile since the new forum format rolled out) That's CPC's days 3-7 hazards map, so for the big(ger) storm Tues/Weds. Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Okay. Not bad looks like a wide swath of 6-9 inches from NE to MI with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z GFS continues to improve. Brings 6 inch amounts through all of MKE CWA. 6-8 for Chicago area. The L still seems pretty weak but it goes from W. KY through E IN and into NE Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Baby steps I like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Money, 18z GFS developing a more widespread healthier defo band...here is a cumulative snowfall map from both systems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Brings 3+ amounts all the way through GB area now as well. Def. improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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