April 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Will April showers bring May flowers???  Signs are pointing that this month will start off on a more wintry note rather than a Spring feel.  However, a major flip to sustained warmth is showing up around the 2nd weekend of the month.

 

The latest JMA Weeklies are showing the colder/stormier look in the central CONUS to open up the month that may produce several west/east wintry systems and possibly deliver more Spring snows to areas that have seen them already this season.  Will there be an Easter weekend storm system to track???  When will severe weather season begin???  Let's discuss.

[Jaycee]

Solid outbreak in Oklahoma yesterday, with 8 confirmed tornado reports. It's crazy at the lack of weather that region has been having, as tornado season generally is kicked off in the OK/TX area as well as dixie alley. I'm beyond pumped to see what April brings. Hopefully another 2012 outbreak, I know NEJeremy and Gabel23 will remember these graphics:

 

http://www.ustornadoes.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/20120414_tornadoforecast_overlay.png

 

 

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/120414_2008z_avhrr_ir_svr_reports_anim.gif

[Tom]

GFS/EURO both showing some type of Easter weekend storm system.  12z Euro has a strong bowling ball type of storm with snow/thunderstorms.  Ton's of precip showing up.

[james1976]

GFS/EURO both showing some type of Easter weekend storm system.  12z Euro has a strong bowling ball type of storm with snow/thunderstorms.  Ton's of precip showing up.

Tom, where does it show the snow falling?

[Tom]

Tom, where does it show the snow falling?

I'll post the maps when I get back from the pool.  Right now its showing it in parts of NE/N IA/S WI/N IL/MI.

[Tony]

I'll post the maps when I get back from the pool.  Right now its showing it in parts of NE/N IA/S WI/N IL/MI.

Must be nice....enjoy!

[Tony]

GFS/EURO both showing some type of Easter weekend storm system.  12z Euro has a strong bowling ball type of storm with snow/thunderstorms.  Ton's of precip showing up.

Looks very impressive:

[NEJeremy]

Solid outbreak in Oklahoma yesterday, with 8 confirmed tornado reports. It's crazy at the lack of weather that region has been having, as tornado season generally is kicked off in the OK/TX area as well as dixie alley. I'm beyond pumped to see what April brings. Hopefully another 2012 outbreak, I know NEJeremy and Gabel23 will remember these graphics:

 

http://www.ustornadoes.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/20120414_tornadoforecast_overlay.png

 

 

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/120414_2008z_avhrr_ir_svr_reports_anim.gif

 

I remember this day quite well. Almost blew it leaving too late and made it down to just north of I-70 in central Kansas to see a beautiful backlit tornado form about 3 miles west of me. I missed the truly huge tornadoes further south but this was still a nice catch.

[CentralNebWeather]

4-14-12 is the date that the huskers had to cancel the spring football game. I remember the day well. We live about 2 hours west of Lincoln and we had tornado sirens go off 3 different times that day. In this area if any part of the county is in a tornado warning our sirens go off in town. Most reports from what I can recall were funnels or in rural areas. My kids thought it was exciting to be in the storage room in the basement so many times. No injuries or damage in our area.

[Scott26]

I'm looking forward to severe weather season like always. It's absolutely terrible that tornadoes and other severe storms can cause so much destruction and devastation, but the storms and the science behind it is beautiful in my mind. I feel for anyone that was affected by the tornadoes that touched down yesterday.

[Tom]

Tom, where does it show the snow falling?

Here you go...

[Tom]

Tonight's Euro Weeklies showing the instant flip to Spring time warmth (might be summer time warmth) from the Plain and points East around the 11th-25th.

[Maxim]

I'm pulling hard for a western trough to develop. Really need to break out of this pattern ASAP.

[CentralNebWeather]

I am with you Maxim, need that for the Western 1/2 of the country.  Sounds like things are getting worse again in California with record highs again and record rainfall deficits.  

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015032718/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015032718/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015032718/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015032718/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

[Geos]

Looks like a wet and cool Easter coming up. Be interesting to see what 0z runs show tonight.

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015032800/gem_asnow_us_40.png

[Money]

Euro has a 978 L in W. Michigan at HR 168, 850's look cold enough for snow.

[Geos]

GFS showing an I-80 to I-90 snowstorm in one week. Would be a white Easter for many of us if it came true!

[Maxim]

not too shabby

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/test8.gif

[Money]

12z EURO again showing a pretty strong system between 144/168. Wraps up nicely. 

[gosaints]

None of the over night models support snow...

[Geos]

12z GFS starting to go back to the Plains snowstorm scenario. Energy kind of strung out on this run.

[Tom]

Sending some warm weather thoughts from the desert southwest....

 

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/l/85268:4:US

 

Euro Ensembles still showing the big break you guys are all waiting for the weekend after Easter.

[gosaints]

Signs of a true pattern change might be showing up.  

[Snowlover76]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif?1427727644511

[FarmerRick]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif?1427727644511

 

 

Well, I for one am looking forward to some moisture and some rumbles of thunder.  I can do without the hail as I'm having a new windshield put in SWMBO's van tomorrow and I still have $30k worth of unfixed damage from the big hailstorm that hit on 6/3/14.

 

Flowers in Omaha just posted this:  This is a combo of rotation and instability extending from Omaha to the south. Most likely area for severe storms Wednesday evening.

 

[jcwxguy]

i know it doesnt mean much, but we have a D.O.W. in our parking lot at my work  (hotel)

[Maxim]

Looks like a wet and cool Easter coming up. Be interesting to see what 0z runs show tonight.

Looks kinda warm to me now.

[Maxim]

not too shabby

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/test8.gif

looking so good now

[Jaycee]

Well, I for one am looking forward to some moisture and some rumbles of thunder.  I can do without the hail as I'm having a new windshield put in SWMBO's van tomorrow and I still have $30k worth of unfixed damage from the big hailstorm that hit on 6/3/14.

 

Flowers in Omaha just posted this:  This is a combo of rotation and instability extending from Omaha to the south. Most likely area for severe storms Wednesday evening.

 

Very nice. I think Lincoln/Omaha, and reallly all of Eastern Nebraska are really  in a prime location. Usually the NWS underestimates the heat with systems like this, and I think the combination of heating and air from the G.O.M will make the low pressure shift northwest a little bit putting us in a good spot. Just my opinion! Probably no science behind that claim, just my 2 cents! 

 

I think somebody will get a moderate risk this week down south in the MO/AR/OK area. Looking incredibly ripe for Thursday and the instability is through the roof. Would not be surprised if we get a "hatched" risk in these areas, as the system is continuing to look more and more potent.

[Maxim]

http://i.imgur.com/UgJvwqy.gif

[Maxim]

http://i.imgur.com/5inb4iS.png

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/ADyFi55.png

   

[Money]

GGEM showing 3-5 inches of snow for Chicago/Geos area for the 3rd/4th

[gosaints]

GGEM showing 3-5 inches of snow for Chicago/Geos area for the 3rd/4th

You are grasping at straws

[WildWisconsinWeather]

You are grasping at straws

 

I don't think so, it would be bad for Money anyways, so no wishcasting on his part.  That said, the GEM is the only one that's showing it I think.

[Maxim]

When there's a consensus of this happening among numerous models, then you can start talking about it. 

[Maxim]

Thankfully the West Pacific Typhoon activity will have very little (if any) impact on our mid-latitude pattern.

[Money]

When there's a consensus of this happening among numerous models, then you can start talking about it. 

 

lol

[gosaints]

lol

  So much for the beginning of april being super nasty