April 2015 Observations and Discussion

[NEJeremy]

  So much for the beginning of april being super nasty

and the end of March or really the whole month of March except for the first couple of days. I remember all those models showing snow, snow, snow on the ground to end March and start April.

[Maxim]

lol

Will be waiting with bated breath for the GEM to verify.

[Sven]

Thinking MCS type structure tomorrow for E. Ne. Maybe a few supercells to start, likely transitioning to an HP mess rather quickly. Think capping inversion might allow just a few discrete S.C's to form, but even then should be fairly elevated. Think the threat of a bow type structure is there, and not being discussed. Isolated tornado, maybe the highest reports being 1.75" hail and a 70 MPH wind gust. Take what we can get, just my opinion. 

[Tom]

  So much for the beginning of april being super nasty

April 3-10th doesn't look pretty at all, unless you like raw/wet colder than normal conditions near the lakes.  Models starting to see it and won't be surprised if your area see's the final snows of the season.

 

00z Euro also seeing the Easter weekend snow event, not nearly as impressive as it once showed, nonetheless its showing snow potential near the lower lakes.

 

 

When a Super Typhoon hits near the Philippines rather than curves northward it usually promotes ridging 6-10 days later in the central/eastern CONUS.  The Super Typhoon currently churning in the western Pacific is forecast to weaken as it heads west towards the Philippines.  It will be interesting to see how this will effect the Typhoon Rule in the 6-10 day range.

 

http://www.weather.com/storms/typhoon/news/typhoon-maysak-yap-philippines-pacific

[Tom]

Started a separate thread for the potential severe weather threat out in the Plains Wed/Thu....

[Tom]

Will be waiting with bated breath for the GEM to verify.

Yup, 12z GGEM agrees...now all major global models agree since last night.  12z Euro up next...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015033112/gem_asnow_us_16.png

[Money]

Will be waiting with bated breath for the GEM to verify.

 

0z EURO last night showed it similar (although lighter) and now the 12z GFS is starting to pick up on it.

 

My bad for posting maps 3-4 days out while you're posting images 2 weeks from now

[Money]

GFS Ensembles:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f84.gif

[Money]

Euro looks interesting. Tom, do you have the maps at all by any chance?

[Tom]

12z Euro with a 995mb SLP in E IN on Good Friday....showing accumulating snows from KC/ORD/DTW....

[Tom]

Euro looks interesting. Tom, do you have the maps at all by any chance?

850's border line, but not a Spring-like "feel" in the air with this system...stronger system might have enough fire power to generate enough cold air for more Spring snows.

[Money]

The trend has been for a stronger/colder solution last couple runs.

[Tony]

Fairly potent/compact system showing up on the modeling. Nice job on the GGEM picking up on this system that Money posted a couple days back. Not saying I like what I am seeing but can't wish it away either.

[Hawkeye]

It figures the models are bringing the late-week snow system back.  I just planted my dormant geraniums in their outside pots to wake them up during the current warm stretch.  I can bring the big pots inside during a brief period, though.  What concerns me a bit more is early next week.  A couple models have trended south and colder with the next storm.

[Niko]

Well, 3.1 inches of snow fell IMBY today. It was a winter wonderland this morning. Pretty wild weather here in SEMI. Hard to believe by Thursday, my temps will be reaching near 70F or so. Numerous record highs are likely on that day for a lot of us on this forum.

[Niko]

April 3-10th doesn't look pretty at all, unless you like raw/wet colder than normal conditions near the lakes.  Models starting to see it and won't be surprised if your area see's the final snows of the season.

 

00z Euro also seeing the Easter weekend snow event, not nearly as impressive as it once showed, nonetheless its showing snow potential near the lower lakes.

 

 

When a Super Typhoon hits near the Philippines rather than curves northward it usually promotes ridging 6-10 days later in the central/eastern CONUS.  The Super Typhoon currently churning in the western Pacific is forecast to weaken as it heads west towards the Philippines.  It will be interesting to see how this will effect the Typhoon Rule in the 6-10 day range.

 

http://www.weather.com/storms/typhoon/news/typhoon-maysak-yap-philippines-pacific

So far, I have seen 2 Spring snowevents. Both were accumulating snowfalls.

[Niko]

850's border line, but not a Spring-like "feel" in the air with this system...stronger system might have enough fire power to generate enough cold air for more Spring snows.

I bet you this will be my third Spring snowevent. The beat goes on and on and on.

[Niko]

Will April showers bring May flowers???  Signs are pointing that this month will start off on a more wintry note rather than a Spring feel.  However, a major flip to sustained warmth is showing up around the 2nd weekend of the month.

 

The latest JMA Weeklies are showing the colder/stormier look in the central CONUS to open up the month that may produce several west/east wintry systems and possibly deliver more Spring snows to areas that have seen them already this season.  Will there be an Easter weekend storm system to track???  When will severe weather season begin???  Let's discuss.

Lets hope so!

 

I am really looking forward to Thunderstorms. Its been awhile.

[Geos]

EURO was pretty intense with the snow this weekend. Will be interesting to see if it will stay on the models now.

Except for last March, I can't remember the last time I saw the grass so yellow/brown at this point in the spring. Usually there's more green by now.

[Maxim]

LOT not very impressed with snow chances on Friday.

[CentralNebWeather]

Geos I am with you.  Grass here in our town cracks as you walk on it.  Many have commented it looks like late fall and not early spring.  

[NEJeremy]

My yard in Omaha is getting pretty green

[Geos]

Geos I am with you.  Grass here in our town cracks as you walk on it.  Many have commented it looks like late fall and not early spring.  

 

It really does resemble late autumn. Little rain and cold weather overall isn't going to speed things along either. 

Today is nice, but quite cool close to the lake.

 

GFS has the snow a bit further east on this run.

 

 

CMC has is farther west and north.

 

[Money]

Nice snowstorm for Minnesota area

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015040112/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

[CentralNebWeather]

NEJeremy-  We have just missed so many rains here in Central Nebraska west of Kearney that things are just tinder dry.  The hot winds of the last several weeks haven't helped.  I am just hoping the cold front doesn't come through too quickly this afternoon and push all the good moisture to the east.  If you look at the maps that is what might happen.  Many are now watering their yards and what I am noticing with my yard is that everything is sinking in.

[Hawkeye]

The air over here is very dry with dews in the 30s (temp approaching 80).  There will be a sliver of better dews drawn up across the area tonight, but it's still not the greatest setup for a good rainfall.

[Maxim]

73° here

[Hawkeye]

We soared into the upper 70s by 1pm and then stayed there the rest of the afternoon.

[jcwxguy]

85 here but dews are only 45

[Geos]

70s about 10 miles away, but southerly winds are not quite strong enough to push the colder marine air out over the lake. Maybe later tonight southerly wind can lock in for a time before it cools off a whole lot.

[gosaints]

83 at msp yesterday. Record set.

[Maxim]

83 at msp yesterday. Record set.

such a brutally cold start to April 

[Money]

Euro/ggem/gfs/ukie all look interesting for Monday of next week. A pretty strong high pressure to the north. 

 

Snowfall on GEM:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015040212/gem_asnow_us_26.png

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Euro/ggem/gfs/ukie all look interesting for Monday of next week. A pretty strong high pressure to the north. 

 

Snowfall on GEM:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015040212/gem_asnow_us_26.png

 

Great, now a number of misses just to the north are upcoming.  I want the warmth (and storminess) to arrive for good, take away all thoughts from this ugly winter.

[Yerf]

Maybe Winter's last shot for the Chicago area for Friday

 

LOT:

RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY IN THE
GRIDS...AND THEN A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
REMAINING CWA....WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
THIS PERIOD AND IF TRENDS WERE TO CONTINUE TOWARDS GREATER
CONFIDENCE OF A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW FRIDAY...THEN I WOULD ALSO BE
CONCERNED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOW

[Geos]

Maybe Winter's last shot for the Chicago area for Friday

 

LOT:

RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY IN THE

GRIDS...AND THEN A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE

REMAINING CWA....WILL NEED TO CONTINUE

THIS PERIOD AND IF TRENDS WERE TO CONTINUE TOWARDS GREATER

CONFIDENCE OF A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW FRIDAY...THEN I WOULD ALSO BE

CONCERNED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOW

 

O really!

Thought earlier that it would be a cold rain near 40°. That'll be a big difference from today then. In the mid 60s now with full sun.

 

GFS definitely has it cold tomorrow afternoon, but most of the moisture closer to I-80.

 

[Maxim]

I'll be surprised if I see a single flake IMBY tomorrow, will say that much.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I'll be surprised if I see a single flake IMBY tomorrow, will say that much.

 

The next week though is looking near normal and rainy, not torchy yet on a regular basis.

[Maxim]

GGEM showing 3-5 inches of snow for Chicago/Geos area for the 3rd/4th

oops

[Hawkeye]

Next week is looking very unsettled.  The GFS is showing a stalled front (with me on the cold side ) with several rounds of rain from Monday through Saturday.